Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 4

JTWC - projected path
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Why "Laila" will trace the JTWC 's projected path??
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Upto Tamilnadu coast the upper wind is from East to West.
Just above the land, the upper wind pattern is from S-W to North-East.
This will steer the "Laila" away from Land after coming very close to Land.
Anything can happen.

IMD warning
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BOB 01/2010/04                                                                                               Dated: 18.05.2010 

Time of issue: 0730 hours IST

Sub:      Cyclonic Storm ‘ LAILA ‘ over southeast and adjoining southwest  Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Alert.    

               The deep depression over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas moved westwards, intensified 

into a Cyclonic Storm ‘ LAILA’ and lay centered at 0530 hrs IST of today,the 18 th May 2010 over southeast and 

adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal near Latitude 11.50N and 86.50E, about 700 km east-southeast of 

Chennai, 800 km southeast of Visakhapatnam and 1300 km south-southwest of Kolkata.

               The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the 

system is likely to intensify further and  move in a west-northwesterly direction towards Andhra Pradesh coast.

               Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track

 and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

Date/Time(IST)	Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)	Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
18-05-2010/0530	11.5/86.5	65-75 gusting to 85
18-05-2010/1130	11.5/86.0	65-75 gusting to 85
18-05-2010/1730	12.0/85.5	75-85gusting to 95
18-05-2010/2330	12.5/85.0	75-85gusting to 95
19-05-2010/0530	13.0/84.5	85-95 gusting to 105
19-05-2010/1730	14.0/83.5	85-95 gusting to 105
20-05-2010/0530	15.0/82.5	95-105 gusting to 115
20-05-2010/1730	16.0/82.0	95-105 gusting to 115
21-05-2010/0530	17.0/81.0	75-85gusting to 95

               Under the influence of this system, coastal areas of north Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, are likely to 

experience fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls from 19th May 2010. Gale force wind 

with speed reaching 65-75 kmph likely to commence along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from today,the

18th night. 

               Sea condition will be high to very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from today the 18th night.

 Fishermen are advised not venture into the open sea.

               The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts. are being informed accordingly.

               Next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today,the 18th May 2010.

Satellite shot at 11 am IST
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