Cyclone "04A" -- nearing South Oman coast !!

Position :: 13.9 N and 59 E
Wind :: 65 km/H
Pressure :: 996mb


JTWC warning
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POSITION NEAR 13.9N 58.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
CAPE GUARDAFU, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS SLIGHTLY
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 080530Z PGTW DVORAK
FIX. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS UNDER A RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 04A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN ON A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AFTER
TAU 24 AS THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS AND EXTENDS WESTWARD.
CONCURRENTLY, THE VWS WILL INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM
THE RIDGE AXIS, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY WEAKEN BEFORE IT
MAKES LANDFALL AT THE HORN OF AFRICA AFTER TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH GFS AS THE RIGHTMOST
OUTLIER. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFS'S UNLIKELY INTRUSION INTO THE RIDGE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 11 FEET.

JTWC projected path
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Latest satellite IR shot
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IMD GFS models suggest that it'll move towards N-N-W and touch Oman coast and then eventually die in that same zone