Cyclone "04A" -- slowly nearing Oman coast !! and may dissipate over Sea !

Position :: 15.6 N , 58.5 E
Wind :: 65 Km/Hr
Pressure :: 996mb

JTWC warning
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TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH OF MUSCAT, 
OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.  
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE 
IMPACTED BY SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS).  AS A 
RESULT, THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE FRAGMENTED AND SHOWS 
SIGNS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CONVECTION CENTER (LLCC) IS BECOMING 
EXPOSED.  UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS FAVORABLE, HOWEVER 
TRANSVERSE BANDING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EVIDENCE OF THE STRONG 
SHEAR.  THE POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 090530Z PGTW DVORAK 
FIX.  THE SYSTEM IS IN BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES.  WHILE THE GENERAL 
NORTHWARD MOTION APPEARS TO BE CONTROLLED BY THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE 
EAST, NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SINAI PENINSULA 
IS COUNTERING THIS MOTION. AS A RESULT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE NORTHWARD VERY SLOWLY.  AS THE EASTERN ANTICYCLONE BUILDS 
ACROSS THE AREA, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD 
BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY TAU 36.  CURRENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE 
IS SPLIT BETWEEN WHICH OF THE ANTICYCLONES WILL STEER THE SYSTEM, 
WITH HALF OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING NORTHERLY TRACKS AND THE OTHER 
HALF WITH WESTERLY TRACKS.  HOWEVER, NONE OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES 
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS 
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 11 FEET.

Latest satellite IR shot
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