Cyclone "Thane" - Moving W-N-W, and will intensify to Severe Cyclone in 12hrs

Position, 9pm ::  Lat : 12:19:01 N Lon : 86:15:13 E
Winds :: 90 Km/Hr
Pressure :: 993mb
Tonight it'll intensify further to Severe Cyclone and continue to crawl W-N-W or West


Latest satellite IR shot, 9pm
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JTWC warning and projected path, 8:30pm
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271500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 86.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM EAST 
OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE 
CENTER; HOWEVER, BASED ON A 271221Z SSMIS IMAGE, THE LLCC IS BROAD 
AND REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO LIGHT 
TO MODERATE, EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE 
THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT 
POSITION DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC AS DEPICTED IN A 
270327Z ASCAT IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY 
HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES.
TC 06B IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF 
A DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE 
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK. GFS HAS TRENDED TO A 
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AND IS ON THE 
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE. WBAR REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER 
WITH AN UNREALISTIC RAPID RE-CURVE TRACK INTO BANGLADESH. THE JTWC 
FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF, GFDN, UKMO AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS AND IS 
POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR. TC O6B IS 
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO GOOD 
OVERALL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE 
INDIAN COAST. NEAR TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY DUE TO 
LAND INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 17 
FEET. 

IMD warning, 7pm
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 Cyclonic Storm THANE over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone alert for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast : Yellow Message

The cyclonic storm THANE over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centered at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 27^th December 2011 near latitude 12.5⁰N and longitude 86.5⁰E, about 650 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 700 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 670 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by morning of 30^th December 2011.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI - Remarks

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CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 27-28 DEG. C. OVER THE REGION. IT IS RELATIVELY LESS TOWARDS TAMIL NADU AND SRI LANKA COAST BECOMING 26-27 DEG. C. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS 50 - 80 KJ/CM SQUARE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. IT IS 50-80 KJ/CM SQUARE TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OF SYSTEM AND LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM SQUARE NEAR TAMILNADU AND NORTH SRILANKA COAST. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX CURRENTLY LIES OVER PHASE 5. AS PER STATISTICAL AND NWP MODEL PREDICTIONS, IT IS EXPECTED TO LIE IN PHASE 5 DURING NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE PHASE 5 IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, AS PER OUR PAST STUDIES. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES ALONG 15 DEG. N AND HENCE HELPS IN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DOES NOT SHOW ANY CHANGE DURING PAST SIX HOURS. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 200 AND 850 HPA LEVELS IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SHEAR DURING PAST 24 HRS. CONSIDERING THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE, MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER THEY SUGGEST SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. WITH RESPECT TO TRACK, MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD MOVEMENT. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD/ NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NWP MODELS OF FIRST CATEGORY AND SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE.