Cyclone "Thane" - Very severe Cyclone now and Chennai may miss the direct hit!

Position, 8pm :: 12:33:07 N and 84:13:30 E
Winds :: 125 Km/Hr
Pressure :: 981mb
Latest track and projected path suggests that Chennai may miss a direct hit, but Pondicherry is in line of fire!
Very severe cyclone now, and will make landfall with Cyclone strength.

Latest satellite IR shot, 8pm
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JTWC warning and projected path, 8:30pm
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281500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 83.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 281208Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS AN IMPROVED, THOUGH 
ASYMMETRICAL EYEWALL WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE 
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS). OVERALL, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH 
DECREASING VWS AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND, BASED ON THE SSMIS 
IMAGE, THE SYSTEM IS NOW VERTICALLY ALIGNED. THERE IS HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE 
FEATURE IN THE SSMIS IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED 
TO 75 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM KNES AND 
PGTW. TC 06B IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF 
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED 
TO TRACK WESTWARD UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. A SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL IS FILLING QUICKLY AND 
PROPAGATING EASTWARD WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING 
THE STR TO STRENGTHEN AND MAINTAIN THE WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUBSEQUENTLY MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHT 
AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK, ESPECIALLY GFS WHICH HAD 
INDICATED A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND IS NOW WESTWARD. WBAR REMAINS 
THE SOLE OUTLIER WITH AN UNREALISTIC NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BUT HAD 
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED A RE-CURVE SCENARIO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BUT COULD 
INTENSIFY AS HIGH AS 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RELIABLE 
INTENSITY GUIDANCE PEAKS THE INTENSITY AT 75-80 KNOTS AND MAINTAINS 
THIS INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 06B WILL BEGIN TO 
WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND AND SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING WILL 
OCCUR THEREAFTER WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM 
TRACKS OVER ROUGH TERRAIN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
281200Z IS 22 FEET.

IMD warning, 7:30pm
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Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 'THANE' over southwest Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone Warning for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast : Orange Message.

The severe cyclonic storm 'THANE' over southwest Bay of Bengal moved further westward, intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm and lay centered at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 28^th December 2011 near latitude 12.5⁰N and longitude 84.5⁰E, about 450 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 550 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 900 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island). The system is likely to move west-westwards, intensify further during next 12 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around morning of 30^th December 2011. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

Chennai wind speeds above 0.3km height above sea level has picked up considerably, clocking up to 65 km/Hr. Soon ground winds will also pick-up strength.