Cyclone "Thane" - Now moving West !! Expected to intensify into Severe Cyclone !

Position, 1:30pm :: 12:27:41 N , 86:30:02 E
Pressure :: 994mb
Latest ADT readings suggest that "Thane" is moving WEST. Chennai is the target!!


Latest satellite IR shot, 1pm
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IMD warning, 1:30pm
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The cyclonic storm â€˜THANE’ over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary during past 3 hours and lay centered at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 27^th December 2011 near latitude 12.0⁰N and longitude 87.0.⁰E, about 750 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 750 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 600 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by morning of 30^th December 2011.


JTWC warning and projected path, 2:30pm
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270900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 86.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST 
OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER; HOWEVER, THE 
LLCC IS PARTIALLY-EXPOSED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION 
DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE, EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (A 
270717Z AMSU IMAGE HINTS AT POSSIBLE TILT IN THE SYSTEM). DESPITE 
THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT 
POSITION DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC AS DEPICTED IN A 
270327Z ASCAT IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK 
ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. TC 06B IS FORECAST TO 
TRACK INCREASINGLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP 
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH. MODEL 
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE 
TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN. WBAR REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER WITH AN 
UNREALISTIC RAPID RE-CURVE TRACK INTO BANGLADESH. TC O6B IS EXPECTED 
TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO GOOD OVERALL 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE INDIAN 
COAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND 
INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 17 FEET.