Cyclone "Thane" - most models point to near Chennai landfall !!

Position, 12:30pm :: 12:57:08 N , 86:53:43 E
Winds :: 90 km/Hr
Pressure :: 994mb


Latest satellite IR shot, 12pm
-----------------------------------------------------

JTWC warning and projected path, 8:30am
--------------------------------------------------------------

270300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 87.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST 
OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 262252Z SSMI 
IMAGE SHOWING A DISTINCT CENTER FEATURE AND AN AVERAGE OF INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS. 
RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION 
PERSISTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE 
CYCLONE LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN 
AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL 
TOWARD THE BASED OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, 
HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TURN 
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, 
WHICH IS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE WAKE 
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 06B IS EXPECTED TO 
SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
AND MODERATE OCEAN CONTENT VIE WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. THEREAFTER, DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND PERSISTENT 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND LEAD TO 
WEAKENING BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI JUST 
AFTER TAU 72 THEN DISSIPATE INLAND BY TAU 96. THE CURRENT FORECAST 
LIES EQUATORWARD OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NUMERICAL MODEL 
CONSENSUS, WHICH IS BEING SKEWED POLEWARD BY WBAR - WHICH DEPICTS AN 
ERRONEOUS RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST - AND GFDN AND EGRR - BOTH OF 
WHICH HOLD THE SYSTEM TOO WEAK AND STEER THE CYCLONE EQUATORWARD 
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z 
IS 14 FEET.

IMD warning, 10:30am
------------------------------------------------
The cyclonic storm THANE over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 27^thDecember 2011 near latitude 12.0⁰N and longitude 87.0.⁰E, about 750 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 750 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 600 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by morning of 30^th December 2011.

Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 24 hours. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall is likely to commence over north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh from 28^th December 2011 night onwards.

Squally wind speed of 45-55 kmph is likely to prevail along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 12 hours and squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph likely to commence along and off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from 28^th December night onwards.

Sea condition will be high to very high around the system centre. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 12 hours and will be rough to very rough from along and off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast from 28^th December night onwards

Fishermen along Andaman & Nicobar Islands are advised not to venture into sea during next 12 hours and fishermen along Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & south Andhra Pradesh coast, who are out at sea are advised to return to the coast.

IMD GFS model prediction
--------------------------------------------
Suggests a near Chennai landfall as a Depression on 30-Dec