Monday, November 30, 2009
This present system will give some mild widespread showers from tomorrow + 36 hrs.. http://yfrog.com/1ebc6g
Satellite shows Super cloud formation just East of North TN coast .. http://ping.fm/DO9tb ... Will it move East tomorrow morning??
Trivandrum, Srinagar & Visakhapatnam Temperature and Climate by the Month
Trivandrum, Kerala, India
In Trivandrum, Kerala, India the average temperature is 27.00C (80.6F). 22.00C (71.60F) is the lowest monthly average low temperature (occurring in January) while 31.00C (87.80F) is the highest monthly average high temperature which occurs in March, April, May. The average temperature range is therefore 2.00C (35.60F). Wet weather in Trivandrum, Kerala accumulates so that there is a total average rainfall of 1835.00mm (72.24in) per annum. Divided over the year this gives an average monthly rainfall of 152.92mm (6.02in). June is the month with most precipitation when 331mm (13.03in) of rain falls over a period of 22 days while in January only 19mm (0.75in) of rain falls over 2 days. Trivandrum, Kerala’s weather is effected by 132 days per year with greater than 0.1mm (0.004in) of rainfall. Relative humidity at Trivandrum, Kerala averages 73.91666667% over the year. 63% is the lowest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in January & February and 82% is the highest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in June. Trivandrum, Kerala’s weather is effected by 2381 hours of sunshine per year which is an average of 6.52 hours per day. The range of sunlight hours is from an average of 4.0 per day in June to 8.8 per day in February. Get a more detailed review of the Kerala climate at the world climate and temperature website. Excellent climate graphs are provided that publishers can include on their websites.
Srinagar, Jammu And Kashmir, India
In Srinagar, Jammu And Kashmir, India the average temperature is 13.42C (56.15F). -2.00C (28.40F) is the lowest monthly average low temperature (occurring in January & December) while 31.00C (87.80F) is the highest monthly average high temperature which occurs in July. The average temperature range is therefore 23.50C (74.30F). Wet weather in Srinagar, Jammu And Kashmir accumulates so that there is a total average rainfall of 664.00mm (26.14in) per annum. Divided over the year this gives an average monthly rainfall of 55.33mm (2.18in). March is the month with most precipitation when 104mm (4.09in) of rain falls over a period of 14 days while in November only 18mm (0.71in) of rain falls over 4 days. Srinagar, Jammu And Kashmir’s weather is effected by 103 days per year with greater than 0.1mm (0.004in) of rainfall. Relative humidity at Srinagar, Jammu And Kashmir averages 68.66666667% over the year. 57% is the lowest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in June and 83% is the highest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in January. Srinagar, Jammu And Kashmir’s weather is effected by 2218 hours of sunshine per year which is an average of 6.08 hours per day. The range of sunlight hours is from an average of 2.0 per day in January to 8.0 per day in July. Get a more detailed review of the Srinagar average temperature at the world climate and temperature website. Excellent climate graphs are provided that publishers can include on their websites.
Visakhapatnam/ Vizag, Andhra Pradesh, India
In Visakhapatnam/ Vizag, Andhra Pradesh, India the average temperature is 28.08C (82.55F). 19.00C (66.20F) is the lowest monthly average low temperature (occurring in January) while 33.00C (91.40F) is the highest monthly average high temperature which occurs in May, June. The average temperature range is therefore 9.00C (48.20F). Wet weather in Visakhapatnam/ Vizag, Andhra Pradesh accumulates so that there is a total average rainfall of 944.00mm (37.17in) per annum. Divided over the year this gives an average monthly rainfall of 78.67mm (3.10in). October is the month with most precipitation when 261mm (10.28in) of rain falls over a period of 11 days while in January only 7mm (0.28in) of rain falls over 1 days. Visakhapatnam/ Vizag, Andhra Pradesh’s weather is effected by 65 days per year with greater than 0.1mm (0.004in) of rainfall. Relative humidity at Visakhapatnam/ Vizag, Andhra Pradesh averages 72.41666667% over the year. 64% is the lowest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in November, December and 77% is the highest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in April, May. You can get more info about the weather in Visakhapatnam on the excellent linked to website. Details of the average high and low temperature for each month are available there.
In Trivandrum, Kerala, India the average temperature is 27.00C (80.6F). 22.00C (71.60F) is the lowest monthly average low temperature (occurring in January) while 31.00C (87.80F) is the highest monthly average high temperature which occurs in March, April, May. The average temperature range is therefore 2.00C (35.60F). Wet weather in Trivandrum, Kerala accumulates so that there is a total average rainfall of 1835.00mm (72.24in) per annum. Divided over the year this gives an average monthly rainfall of 152.92mm (6.02in). June is the month with most precipitation when 331mm (13.03in) of rain falls over a period of 22 days while in January only 19mm (0.75in) of rain falls over 2 days. Trivandrum, Kerala’s weather is effected by 132 days per year with greater than 0.1mm (0.004in) of rainfall. Relative humidity at Trivandrum, Kerala averages 73.91666667% over the year. 63% is the lowest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in January & February and 82% is the highest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in June. Trivandrum, Kerala’s weather is effected by 2381 hours of sunshine per year which is an average of 6.52 hours per day. The range of sunlight hours is from an average of 4.0 per day in June to 8.8 per day in February. Get a more detailed review of the Kerala climate at the world climate and temperature website. Excellent climate graphs are provided that publishers can include on their websites.
Srinagar, Jammu And Kashmir, India
In Srinagar, Jammu And Kashmir, India the average temperature is 13.42C (56.15F). -2.00C (28.40F) is the lowest monthly average low temperature (occurring in January & December) while 31.00C (87.80F) is the highest monthly average high temperature which occurs in July. The average temperature range is therefore 23.50C (74.30F). Wet weather in Srinagar, Jammu And Kashmir accumulates so that there is a total average rainfall of 664.00mm (26.14in) per annum. Divided over the year this gives an average monthly rainfall of 55.33mm (2.18in). March is the month with most precipitation when 104mm (4.09in) of rain falls over a period of 14 days while in November only 18mm (0.71in) of rain falls over 4 days. Srinagar, Jammu And Kashmir’s weather is effected by 103 days per year with greater than 0.1mm (0.004in) of rainfall. Relative humidity at Srinagar, Jammu And Kashmir averages 68.66666667% over the year. 57% is the lowest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in June and 83% is the highest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in January. Srinagar, Jammu And Kashmir’s weather is effected by 2218 hours of sunshine per year which is an average of 6.08 hours per day. The range of sunlight hours is from an average of 2.0 per day in January to 8.0 per day in July. Get a more detailed review of the Srinagar average temperature at the world climate and temperature website. Excellent climate graphs are provided that publishers can include on their websites.
Visakhapatnam/ Vizag, Andhra Pradesh, India
In Visakhapatnam/ Vizag, Andhra Pradesh, India the average temperature is 28.08C (82.55F). 19.00C (66.20F) is the lowest monthly average low temperature (occurring in January) while 33.00C (91.40F) is the highest monthly average high temperature which occurs in May, June. The average temperature range is therefore 9.00C (48.20F). Wet weather in Visakhapatnam/ Vizag, Andhra Pradesh accumulates so that there is a total average rainfall of 944.00mm (37.17in) per annum. Divided over the year this gives an average monthly rainfall of 78.67mm (3.10in). October is the month with most precipitation when 261mm (10.28in) of rain falls over a period of 11 days while in January only 7mm (0.28in) of rain falls over 1 days. Visakhapatnam/ Vizag, Andhra Pradesh’s weather is effected by 65 days per year with greater than 0.1mm (0.004in) of rainfall. Relative humidity at Visakhapatnam/ Vizag, Andhra Pradesh averages 72.41666667% over the year. 64% is the lowest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in November, December and 77% is the highest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in April, May. You can get more info about the weather in Visakhapatnam on the excellent linked to website. Details of the average high and low temperature for each month are available there.
Predictions for climate change this century
Following is a summary of expert opinion of potential impacts from climate change by the end of the century.
The source is the Fourth Assessment Report, published in 2007 by the UN's Nobel-winning scientists, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The magnitude of impacts will mainly depend on the level of warming, which the panel predicted would be in a range of 1.8-4.0 C (3.2-7.2 F) by 2100, a figure that two recent studies have said could be under-estimated by up to 2.4 C (4.3 F).
ASIA: Between 120 million to 1.2 billion Asians will experience increased water stress by 2020, and 185 to 981 million by 2050. Cereal yields in South Asia could drop in some areas by up to 30 percent by 2050.
Even modest sea-level rises will cause flooding and economic disruption in densely-populated mega-deltas, such as the Yangtze, Red River and Ganges-Brahmaputra.
Cholera and malaria could increase, thanks to flooding and a wider habitat range for mosquitoes.
In the Himalayas, glaciers less than four kilometers (2.5 miles) long will disappear entirely if average global temperatures rise by 3 C (5.4 F). This will initially cause increased flooding and mudslides followed by an eventual decrease in flow in rivers that are glacier-fed.
Per-capita water availability in India will drop from around 1,900 cubic metres (66,500 cubic feet) currently to 1,000 cu. metres (35,000 cu. ft.) by 2025.
AFRICA: Likely to be the worst-hit continent. Hundreds of millions are "very likely" -- a 90 percent certainty -- to face severe shortfalls in food and drinkable water by 2080, probably sooner.
Climate change will shorten growing seasons and render swathes of land unusable for agriculture, with yields declining by as much as 50 percent in some countries. A rise of 60 to 90 million hectares (150 to 220 million acres) of arid and semi-arid land is projected by 2080.
Food security will be "severely compromised", with an additional 80 to 200 million people at risk of hunger by 2080. By that date, sub-Sahara Africa may account for 40 to 50 percent of the world's undernourished, compared with about 25 percent today.
Half a billion Africans will face acute scarcities of drinkable water if average global temperatures rise only 2 C (3.6 F) compared to 1990 levels. Cholera, meningitis and dengue fever will increase in extent and impact.
Big deltas such as the Nile and the Niger face flooding and economic disruption caused by rising sea levels.
EUROPE: Mediterranean countries can brace for a higher risk of severe droughts, reduced harvests and deadly heatwaves.
High-latitude European nations will face flooding and severe weather, but this could be balanced by longer growing seasons and expanded areas for agriculture and forestry.
In Alpine regions, rising temperatures could badly damage the ski industry and wipe out up to 60 percent of plant and animal species.
The percentage of river basin areas that are "severely water stressed" is predicted to jump from 19 percent today between 34 and 36 percent in the 2070s.
Wintertime floods are likely to increase in Europe's maritime regions, while snowmelt-related floods and flash floods will hit central Europe.
Hydropower potential is expected to decline by 20-50 percent in the Mediterranean region but increase by 15-30 percent in Northern and Eastern Europe.
Biodiversity will be badly affected: "A large percentage of the European flora is likely to become vulnerable, endangered, or committed to extinction by the end of this century," the report says.
AMERICAS: Global warming will power up tropical storms and heatwaves in North America and threaten species extinction and hunger in the South.
Common to each American hemisphere will be a greater burden from water stress and health risks from heat, storms, infectious disease and urban smog.
In Alaska and Canada, thawing of permafrost and loss of sea ice are set to accelerate, posing a threat to mammals such as seals and polar bears, encouraging invasive species and "severely" challenging the lifestyle of the native Inuit.
Fast-growing cities on the coast will be increasingly vulnerable to storms, which will be amplified by sea-level rise.
In the first decades of the 21st century, climate change will boost forest production and rain-fed agriculture. But this will be partly balanced by a greater range of insect pests and diseases.
In Latin America, tropical glaciers are "very likely" to disappear by the early 2020s, reducing water availability and hydropower generation in several countries.
Frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the Caribbean basin is likely to increase.
By the 2020s, between seven and 77 million people in Latin America are likely to suffer from inadequate water supplies, a figure that could rise to 60-150 million by 2100.
A rise of 2 C (3.6 F) and decreases in soil water would turn eastern Amazonia and the tropical forests of central and southern Mexico into savannah.
OCEANIA
Invasive species and habitat loss, species extinction and the resultant hit to tourism are risks that are "virtually certain" to increase in Australia, New Zealand and Pacific island nations.
The most vulnerable ecosystems are the Great Barrier Reef, southwestern Australia, the Kakadu wetlands, rainforests and alpine areas.
Water problems that already plague southern and eastern Australia are "very likely" to increase by 2030. River flow from Australia's Murray-Darling Basin could fall by 10-25 percent by 2050.
By 2050, agriculture and forestry products are likely to be reduced over "much" of southern and southeastern Australia and parts of eastern New Zealand. But in the south and west of New Zealand crop yields are likely to increase.
In Pacific island states, sea-level rise and increase in seawater temperature will accelerate beach erosion and degrade natural defences such as mangroves and coral reefs, in turn hitting tourism.
Port facilities at Suva, Fiji, and Apia, Samoa, could be swamped by a 0.5 metre (19.5-inch) rise in sea level combined with waves associated in a one-in-a-half-century cyclone. Farming production will fall by between two and 18 percent by 2030.
POLAR REGIONS
Arctic:
By 2100, the extent of Arctic sea ice could shrink by 22-33 percent, depending on the emissions scenario. Arctic glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland ice sheet will suffer "important reductions" in thickness and range, but this magnitude is difficult to predict.
Northern hemisphere permafrost is projected to decrease in extent by 20-35 percent by 2050. Seasonal thawing is likely to increase by 15-25 percent by this date. The runoff from this thaw will disrupt local ecosystems.
Climate change will have a major impact on the Arctic's four million people.
Antarctica:
Land ice loss from the Antarctic peninsula, which has had one of the highest observed increases in temperature anywhere in the world, will continue.
Projections for summer sea ice range from a slight increase to a near complete loss of summer sea ice.
Uncertainty surrounds the future of the Antarctic ice sheet, where most of the world's freshwater is locked up. There is evidence of deglaciation on the Western Antarctic ice sheet, but some experts suggest this could be a lingering result of the last Ice Age, some 12,000 years ago, rather than recent man-made global warming.
(Note: since the 2007 IPCC report, further evidence has emerged that has fuelled alarm for polar regions, notably the loss of several iceshelves in Antarctica and an abrupt shrinkage of summer ice in the Arctic).
Taken from.. http://www.spacedaily.com/2006/091129012558.dfuosq75.html
The source is the Fourth Assessment Report, published in 2007 by the UN's Nobel-winning scientists, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The magnitude of impacts will mainly depend on the level of warming, which the panel predicted would be in a range of 1.8-4.0 C (3.2-7.2 F) by 2100, a figure that two recent studies have said could be under-estimated by up to 2.4 C (4.3 F).
ASIA: Between 120 million to 1.2 billion Asians will experience increased water stress by 2020, and 185 to 981 million by 2050. Cereal yields in South Asia could drop in some areas by up to 30 percent by 2050.
Even modest sea-level rises will cause flooding and economic disruption in densely-populated mega-deltas, such as the Yangtze, Red River and Ganges-Brahmaputra.
Cholera and malaria could increase, thanks to flooding and a wider habitat range for mosquitoes.
In the Himalayas, glaciers less than four kilometers (2.5 miles) long will disappear entirely if average global temperatures rise by 3 C (5.4 F). This will initially cause increased flooding and mudslides followed by an eventual decrease in flow in rivers that are glacier-fed.
Per-capita water availability in India will drop from around 1,900 cubic metres (66,500 cubic feet) currently to 1,000 cu. metres (35,000 cu. ft.) by 2025.
AFRICA: Likely to be the worst-hit continent. Hundreds of millions are "very likely" -- a 90 percent certainty -- to face severe shortfalls in food and drinkable water by 2080, probably sooner.
Climate change will shorten growing seasons and render swathes of land unusable for agriculture, with yields declining by as much as 50 percent in some countries. A rise of 60 to 90 million hectares (150 to 220 million acres) of arid and semi-arid land is projected by 2080.
Food security will be "severely compromised", with an additional 80 to 200 million people at risk of hunger by 2080. By that date, sub-Sahara Africa may account for 40 to 50 percent of the world's undernourished, compared with about 25 percent today.
Half a billion Africans will face acute scarcities of drinkable water if average global temperatures rise only 2 C (3.6 F) compared to 1990 levels. Cholera, meningitis and dengue fever will increase in extent and impact.
Big deltas such as the Nile and the Niger face flooding and economic disruption caused by rising sea levels.
EUROPE: Mediterranean countries can brace for a higher risk of severe droughts, reduced harvests and deadly heatwaves.
High-latitude European nations will face flooding and severe weather, but this could be balanced by longer growing seasons and expanded areas for agriculture and forestry.
In Alpine regions, rising temperatures could badly damage the ski industry and wipe out up to 60 percent of plant and animal species.
The percentage of river basin areas that are "severely water stressed" is predicted to jump from 19 percent today between 34 and 36 percent in the 2070s.
Wintertime floods are likely to increase in Europe's maritime regions, while snowmelt-related floods and flash floods will hit central Europe.
Hydropower potential is expected to decline by 20-50 percent in the Mediterranean region but increase by 15-30 percent in Northern and Eastern Europe.
Biodiversity will be badly affected: "A large percentage of the European flora is likely to become vulnerable, endangered, or committed to extinction by the end of this century," the report says.
AMERICAS: Global warming will power up tropical storms and heatwaves in North America and threaten species extinction and hunger in the South.
Common to each American hemisphere will be a greater burden from water stress and health risks from heat, storms, infectious disease and urban smog.
In Alaska and Canada, thawing of permafrost and loss of sea ice are set to accelerate, posing a threat to mammals such as seals and polar bears, encouraging invasive species and "severely" challenging the lifestyle of the native Inuit.
Fast-growing cities on the coast will be increasingly vulnerable to storms, which will be amplified by sea-level rise.
In the first decades of the 21st century, climate change will boost forest production and rain-fed agriculture. But this will be partly balanced by a greater range of insect pests and diseases.
In Latin America, tropical glaciers are "very likely" to disappear by the early 2020s, reducing water availability and hydropower generation in several countries.
Frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the Caribbean basin is likely to increase.
By the 2020s, between seven and 77 million people in Latin America are likely to suffer from inadequate water supplies, a figure that could rise to 60-150 million by 2100.
A rise of 2 C (3.6 F) and decreases in soil water would turn eastern Amazonia and the tropical forests of central and southern Mexico into savannah.
OCEANIA
Invasive species and habitat loss, species extinction and the resultant hit to tourism are risks that are "virtually certain" to increase in Australia, New Zealand and Pacific island nations.
The most vulnerable ecosystems are the Great Barrier Reef, southwestern Australia, the Kakadu wetlands, rainforests and alpine areas.
Water problems that already plague southern and eastern Australia are "very likely" to increase by 2030. River flow from Australia's Murray-Darling Basin could fall by 10-25 percent by 2050.
By 2050, agriculture and forestry products are likely to be reduced over "much" of southern and southeastern Australia and parts of eastern New Zealand. But in the south and west of New Zealand crop yields are likely to increase.
In Pacific island states, sea-level rise and increase in seawater temperature will accelerate beach erosion and degrade natural defences such as mangroves and coral reefs, in turn hitting tourism.
Port facilities at Suva, Fiji, and Apia, Samoa, could be swamped by a 0.5 metre (19.5-inch) rise in sea level combined with waves associated in a one-in-a-half-century cyclone. Farming production will fall by between two and 18 percent by 2030.
POLAR REGIONS
Arctic:
By 2100, the extent of Arctic sea ice could shrink by 22-33 percent, depending on the emissions scenario. Arctic glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland ice sheet will suffer "important reductions" in thickness and range, but this magnitude is difficult to predict.
Northern hemisphere permafrost is projected to decrease in extent by 20-35 percent by 2050. Seasonal thawing is likely to increase by 15-25 percent by this date. The runoff from this thaw will disrupt local ecosystems.
Climate change will have a major impact on the Arctic's four million people.
Antarctica:
Land ice loss from the Antarctic peninsula, which has had one of the highest observed increases in temperature anywhere in the world, will continue.
Projections for summer sea ice range from a slight increase to a near complete loss of summer sea ice.
Uncertainty surrounds the future of the Antarctic ice sheet, where most of the world's freshwater is locked up. There is evidence of deglaciation on the Western Antarctic ice sheet, but some experts suggest this could be a lingering result of the last Ice Age, some 12,000 years ago, rather than recent man-made global warming.
(Note: since the 2007 IPCC report, further evidence has emerged that has fuelled alarm for polar regions, notably the loss of several iceshelves in Antarctica and an abrupt shrinkage of summer ice in the Arctic).
Taken from.. http://www.spacedaily.com/2006/091129012558.dfuosq75.html
Satellite shows the cloud cover just East of Tamilnadu coast is getting heavy and widespread .. http://yfrog.com/1ek6bj
Indian weatherman has launched a Discussion Forum >>> start your own HOT topic now >>>
http://ping.fm/qaoQV
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All thru the night the cloud formation over Bay just south-east of Chennai was good .. http://ping.fm/IVJ8H
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Upto 29.11.2009 TN has received 10% above NORMAL rainfall for this Monsoon season... http://is.gd/56Mq3
comments and comments .. getting Hot
Dear SSET,
Have you ever compared this year TN rainfall with TN NEM normal rainfall. For your information upto 29.11.2009 TN has received 10% above NORMAL rainfall for this NEM season. That too the rainfall is wide spread baring few NW interior districts.
EL NINO Southern Oscillation [ENSO] is one of tele- connections our NEM is having. Some times it is very prominent; some time its in significant. There is no reduction in the number of rainy days for TN. But upper air at 925 hPa to 850 hPa level is relatively warmer in most part of the year.This anomaly is to be studied.
Further I will let you know in appropriate time when bad weather related to this phenomenon is occurring.
---------- More about coming up showers --------------
NE winds brought rain in many parts of Tiruvarur district and selected coastal locations in Nagai, Ramanad, and Pudukottai districts. [29.11.2009/0830 hrs IST].
Now NE winds of the order 10 to 15 knots are blowing from NE direction from surface to 850 hPa. This may bring smaller showers to day in Puducherry, coastal Villupuram and Kanchipuram districts. However the High pressure hovered over central India at 850 hPa is prohibiting clouds developments
------------------------------------------------------
Have you ever compared this year TN rainfall with TN NEM normal rainfall. For your information upto 29.11.2009 TN has received 10% above NORMAL rainfall for this NEM season. That too the rainfall is wide spread baring few NW interior districts.
EL NINO Southern Oscillation [ENSO] is one of tele- connections our NEM is having. Some times it is very prominent; some time its in significant. There is no reduction in the number of rainy days for TN. But upper air at 925 hPa to 850 hPa level is relatively warmer in most part of the year.This anomaly is to be studied.
Further I will let you know in appropriate time when bad weather related to this phenomenon is occurring.
---------- More about coming up showers --------------
NE winds brought rain in many parts of Tiruvarur district and selected coastal locations in Nagai, Ramanad, and Pudukottai districts. [29.11.2009/0830 hrs IST].
Now NE winds of the order 10 to 15 knots are blowing from NE direction from surface to 850 hPa. This may bring smaller showers to day in Puducherry, coastal Villupuram and Kanchipuram districts. However the High pressure hovered over central India at 850 hPa is prohibiting clouds developments
------------------------------------------------------
In fact GFS is now predicting heavy widespread showers from Monday, 30-Nov-09, evening .. http://yfrog.com/3g5iyp
As expected the Bay is getting active for fresh burst of showers along central and north TN coast from Monday .. http://yfrog.com/4i13wj
Chennai - Bay just south-east of Chennai is active with good cloud formation.. http://yfrog.com/4g3clj
Chennai, New Delhi and Mangalore
Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
In Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India the average temperature is 28.63C (83.525F). 20.00C (68.00F) is the lowest monthly average low temperature (occurring in January) while 38.00C (100.40F) is the highest monthly average high temperature which occurs in May. The average temperature range is therefore 8.50C (47.30F). Wet weather in Chennai, Tamil Nadu accumulates so that there is a total average rainfall of 1217.00mm (47.91in) per annum. Divided over the year this gives an average monthly rainfall of 101.42mm (3.99in). November is the month with most precipitation when 309mm (12.17in) of rain falls over a period of 11 days while in February only 7mm (0.28in) of rain falls over 1 days. Chennai, Tamil Nadu's weather is effected by 91 days per year with greater than 0.1mm (0.004in) of rainfall. Relative humidity at Chennai, Tamil Nadu averages 71.08333333% over the year. 59% is the lowest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in June and 80% is the highest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in November. Chennai, Tamil Nadu's weather is effected by 2716 hours of sunshine per year which is an average of 7.44 hours per day. The range of sunlight hours is from an average of 4.8 per day in July to 9.8 per day in March. Furnish yourself with comprehensive information regarding the Chennai average temperature on the excellent linked to website. Details of the average high and low temperature for each month are available there.
New Delhi, India
In New Delhi, India the average temperature is 25.25C (77.45F). 7.00C (44.60F) is the lowest monthly average low temperature (occurring in January) while 41.00C (105.80F) is the highest monthly average high temperature which occurs in May. The average temperature range is therefore 20.50C (68.90F). Wet weather in New Delhi accumulates so that there is a total average rainfall of 715.00mm (28.15in) per annum. Divided over the year this gives an average monthly rainfall of 59.58mm (2.35in). July is the month with most precipitation when 211mm (8.31in) of rain falls over a period of 14 days while in November only 1mm (0.04in) of rain falls over 1 days. New Delhi's weather is effected by 57 days per year with greater than 0.1mm (0.004in) of rainfall. Relative humidity at New Delhi averages 49.16666667% over the year. 25% is the lowest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in April, May and 73% is the highest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in August. New Delhi's weather is effected by 2856 hours of sunshine per year which is an average of 7.82 hours per day. The range of sunlight hours is from an average of 5.6 per day in July to 9.5 per day in November. There is further information about the temperature in New Delhi on the excellent linked to website. They offer a detailed New Delhi climate graph that webmasters can add to their webpages.
Mangalore, Karnataka, India
In Mangalore, Karnataka, India the average temperature is 27.08C (80.75F). 22.00C (71.60F) is the lowest monthly average low temperature (occurring in January & December) while 33.00C (91.40F) is the highest monthly average high temperature which occurs in April, May. The average temperature range is therefore 3.00C (37.40F). Wet weather in Mangalore, Karnataka accumulates so that there is a total average rainfall of 3479.00mm (136.97in) per annum. Divided over the year this gives an average monthly rainfall of 289.92mm (11.41in). July is the month with most precipitation when 1059mm (41.69in) of rain falls over a period of 30 days while in February only 2mm (0.08in) of rain falls over 0 days. Mangalore, Karnataka's weather is effected by 136 days per year with greater than 0.1mm (0.004in) of rainfall. Relative humidity at Mangalore, Karnataka averages 75.33333333% over the year. 62% is the lowest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in January and 89% is the highest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in July. There is further information about the Mangalore, Karnataka climate at the world climate and temperature website. They offer a detailed Mangalore, Karnataka climate graph that webmasters can add to their webpages.
In Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India the average temperature is 28.63C (83.525F). 20.00C (68.00F) is the lowest monthly average low temperature (occurring in January) while 38.00C (100.40F) is the highest monthly average high temperature which occurs in May. The average temperature range is therefore 8.50C (47.30F). Wet weather in Chennai, Tamil Nadu accumulates so that there is a total average rainfall of 1217.00mm (47.91in) per annum. Divided over the year this gives an average monthly rainfall of 101.42mm (3.99in). November is the month with most precipitation when 309mm (12.17in) of rain falls over a period of 11 days while in February only 7mm (0.28in) of rain falls over 1 days. Chennai, Tamil Nadu's weather is effected by 91 days per year with greater than 0.1mm (0.004in) of rainfall. Relative humidity at Chennai, Tamil Nadu averages 71.08333333% over the year. 59% is the lowest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in June and 80% is the highest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in November. Chennai, Tamil Nadu's weather is effected by 2716 hours of sunshine per year which is an average of 7.44 hours per day. The range of sunlight hours is from an average of 4.8 per day in July to 9.8 per day in March. Furnish yourself with comprehensive information regarding the Chennai average temperature on the excellent linked to website. Details of the average high and low temperature for each month are available there.
New Delhi, India
In New Delhi, India the average temperature is 25.25C (77.45F). 7.00C (44.60F) is the lowest monthly average low temperature (occurring in January) while 41.00C (105.80F) is the highest monthly average high temperature which occurs in May. The average temperature range is therefore 20.50C (68.90F). Wet weather in New Delhi accumulates so that there is a total average rainfall of 715.00mm (28.15in) per annum. Divided over the year this gives an average monthly rainfall of 59.58mm (2.35in). July is the month with most precipitation when 211mm (8.31in) of rain falls over a period of 14 days while in November only 1mm (0.04in) of rain falls over 1 days. New Delhi's weather is effected by 57 days per year with greater than 0.1mm (0.004in) of rainfall. Relative humidity at New Delhi averages 49.16666667% over the year. 25% is the lowest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in April, May and 73% is the highest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in August. New Delhi's weather is effected by 2856 hours of sunshine per year which is an average of 7.82 hours per day. The range of sunlight hours is from an average of 5.6 per day in July to 9.5 per day in November. There is further information about the temperature in New Delhi on the excellent linked to website. They offer a detailed New Delhi climate graph that webmasters can add to their webpages.
Mangalore, Karnataka, India
In Mangalore, Karnataka, India the average temperature is 27.08C (80.75F). 22.00C (71.60F) is the lowest monthly average low temperature (occurring in January & December) while 33.00C (91.40F) is the highest monthly average high temperature which occurs in April, May. The average temperature range is therefore 3.00C (37.40F). Wet weather in Mangalore, Karnataka accumulates so that there is a total average rainfall of 3479.00mm (136.97in) per annum. Divided over the year this gives an average monthly rainfall of 289.92mm (11.41in). July is the month with most precipitation when 1059mm (41.69in) of rain falls over a period of 30 days while in February only 2mm (0.08in) of rain falls over 0 days. Mangalore, Karnataka's weather is effected by 136 days per year with greater than 0.1mm (0.004in) of rainfall. Relative humidity at Mangalore, Karnataka averages 75.33333333% over the year. 62% is the lowest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in January and 89% is the highest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in July. There is further information about the Mangalore, Karnataka climate at the world climate and temperature website. They offer a detailed Mangalore, Karnataka climate graph that webmasters can add to their webpages.
Some Reader comments...
Anonymous has left a new comment on your post "COLA-GFS model still holds to the WET december 1st...":
One among the veterans of COLA site is an INDIAN who, sometime back worked for INDIA [IMD]. IITM site like MOL will give more informative and useful data. Models made a digital divide among [young / old] meteorologists and Numerical Weather Predication [NWP]is going to rule future.Youngs have digital capacity where as the olds are of experience. There should be a proper mix.
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sset has left a new comment on your post "Informative Sweet little reader comments":
No we are not blaming Tamil Nadu. ElNino is not bringing vigorous NE monsoon. Why is it so? Generally it is observed that south india is becoming more and more dry with less rainy days. Take example of Bangalore it is extremely hot and temperature touches 39-40 degrees in summer, we don't see any rains here. But places like Maharashtra, Gujarat are receiving extremely good rains (5-6 months) of rain.
One among the veterans of COLA site is an INDIAN who, sometime back worked for INDIA [IMD]. IITM site like MOL will give more informative and useful data. Models made a digital divide among [young / old] meteorologists and Numerical Weather Predication [NWP]is going to rule future.Youngs have digital capacity where as the olds are of experience. There should be a proper mix.
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sset has left a new comment on your post "Informative Sweet little reader comments":
No we are not blaming Tamil Nadu. ElNino is not bringing vigorous NE monsoon. Why is it so? Generally it is observed that south india is becoming more and more dry with less rainy days. Take example of Bangalore it is extremely hot and temperature touches 39-40 degrees in summer, we don't see any rains here. But places like Maharashtra, Gujarat are receiving extremely good rains (5-6 months) of rain.
Western Disturbance ??
The western disturbance represents a trough of lower pressure (marked by anti-clockwise winds, ascending motion of air, presence of moisture and clouds) that warms up the atmosphere. This can help reverse the cold conditions at a given point of time.
Colder conditions set to continue in North, central parts
Mercury is seeking new lows in North India as cold north-westerlies continued to blow across the international border on Friday.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said that the cold to increasingly colder conditions are set to prevail over north, northwest and parts of central India until November 30.
ANTI-CYCLONIC PUSH
A seasonal anti-cyclone (high-pressure area marked by clockwise winds, sinking air motion and clear skies) sitting smack over central India in the higher levels of atmosphere has been boosting the flow of westerlies to northwesterlies.
This anti-cyclone is seen lying extended to the east over Southeast Asia and China as well as into the Far-east over the Pacific facilitating the northern hemisphere winter.
What would expectedly reverse, if ever slightly, is the arrival of a western disturbance over northwest India by November, a remainder circulation from a large weather system that dropped heavy rains over West Asia on Thursday.
The western disturbance represents a trough of lower pressure (marked by anti-clockwise winds, ascending motion of air, presence of moisture and clouds) that warms up the atmosphere. This can help reverse the cold conditions at a given point of time.
Western disturbances often feature induced cyclonic circulations as they drift into northwest India and are known to help whip up additional moisture from the Arabian Sea to rain down over the hills and plains.
The IMD update on Friday said that maximum temperatures were above normal over parts of peninsular India, Madhya Pradesh and below normal over parts of Punjab and Bihar.
Minimum temperatures were below normal over many parts of east India, Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab. They were above normal over remaining parts of the country except over extreme south peninsular India where they are near normal.
SLIGHT FALL
No significant change in minimum temperatures is expected over the Indo-Gangetic plains during the next five days except a slight fall on Saturday and slight rise from Monday coinciding with the arrival of the western disturbance.
Meanwhile, towards the south, Thursday's cyclonic circulation over southeast Bay of Bengal persisted and is likely to move slowly west-northwestwards (towards Sri Lanka-India coasts). The weak northeast monsoon conditions are likely to continue over south peninsular India during the next three days as well.
But things may begin to look different from Monday with the west-northwestward-bound cyclonic circulation expected to impact coastal Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka.
According to the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the wet session marked by mainly widely separated rain or thundershowers may hold until December 4.
Its outlook for the December 5 to 13 too shows a calibrated rise in activity over the peninsular seas with a flare-up indicated close to the Tamil Nadu coast.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said that the cold to increasingly colder conditions are set to prevail over north, northwest and parts of central India until November 30.
ANTI-CYCLONIC PUSH
A seasonal anti-cyclone (high-pressure area marked by clockwise winds, sinking air motion and clear skies) sitting smack over central India in the higher levels of atmosphere has been boosting the flow of westerlies to northwesterlies.
This anti-cyclone is seen lying extended to the east over Southeast Asia and China as well as into the Far-east over the Pacific facilitating the northern hemisphere winter.
What would expectedly reverse, if ever slightly, is the arrival of a western disturbance over northwest India by November, a remainder circulation from a large weather system that dropped heavy rains over West Asia on Thursday.
The western disturbance represents a trough of lower pressure (marked by anti-clockwise winds, ascending motion of air, presence of moisture and clouds) that warms up the atmosphere. This can help reverse the cold conditions at a given point of time.
Western disturbances often feature induced cyclonic circulations as they drift into northwest India and are known to help whip up additional moisture from the Arabian Sea to rain down over the hills and plains.
The IMD update on Friday said that maximum temperatures were above normal over parts of peninsular India, Madhya Pradesh and below normal over parts of Punjab and Bihar.
Minimum temperatures were below normal over many parts of east India, Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab. They were above normal over remaining parts of the country except over extreme south peninsular India where they are near normal.
SLIGHT FALL
No significant change in minimum temperatures is expected over the Indo-Gangetic plains during the next five days except a slight fall on Saturday and slight rise from Monday coinciding with the arrival of the western disturbance.
Meanwhile, towards the south, Thursday's cyclonic circulation over southeast Bay of Bengal persisted and is likely to move slowly west-northwestwards (towards Sri Lanka-India coasts). The weak northeast monsoon conditions are likely to continue over south peninsular India during the next three days as well.
But things may begin to look different from Monday with the west-northwestward-bound cyclonic circulation expected to impact coastal Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka.
According to the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the wet session marked by mainly widely separated rain or thundershowers may hold until December 4.
Its outlook for the December 5 to 13 too shows a calibrated rise in activity over the peninsular seas with a flare-up indicated close to the Tamil Nadu coast.
Expected 1st week showers to last for 3 days, showers will be intermittent mild and medium due to the MJO effect .. http://yfrog.com/4geqap
Saturday, November 28, 2009
Satellite shows the cloud formations over Bay, east of TN coast .. which is the predicted Dec-1 weather front .. http://yfrog.com/4gc9wj
NOGAPS model also predict showers for TN coast from early morning of 1-Dec-09 .. http://yfrog.com/aun3hg
"Agumbe" or "Chinna Kallar" ??.. wettest place of South India
Reader :1
Agumbe has a annual rainfall of 7500mm
Reader :2
AGUMBE no doubt is also a wettest place. Chinna Kallar some times exceeds 7500 mm mark. There were reports that Chinna Kallar received nearly 9000 mm rainfall.[Subject to verification]
Agumbe is close to 15 Degree Parallel and Chinna Kallar is at 10Degree Latitude.
[15 degree Latitude is considered to be the SW wind core ]
No doubt AGUMBE deserves to be the wettest place which is in KARNATAKA
Agumbe has a annual rainfall of 7500mm
Reader :2
AGUMBE no doubt is also a wettest place. Chinna Kallar some times exceeds 7500 mm mark. There were reports that Chinna Kallar received nearly 9000 mm rainfall.[Subject to verification]
Agumbe is close to 15 Degree Parallel and Chinna Kallar is at 10Degree Latitude.
[15 degree Latitude is considered to be the SW wind core ]
No doubt AGUMBE deserves to be the wettest place which is in KARNATAKA
When this DRY MJO phase exits around 10-Dec-09, Bay is going to host a perfect LOW pressure system .. http://yfrog.com/3gxmcg
Surely a wet weather front is moving towards north TN coast from East around 30-Nov-09 .. http://yfrog.com/3ll2pg
Singapore PM Lee to attend UN climate meet, urges Commonwealth to engage in issue .. http://is.gd/551Uz
COLA-GFS model still holds to the WET december 1st week for north TN coast .. http://yfrog.com/4gj8np
Friday, November 27, 2009
Isolated rain, thundershowers to continue in South
The low-pressure area over south-east Bay of Bengal has become less marked during the 24 hours ending Thursday morning but an associated upper air cyclonic circulation is moving slowly in a west-northwest direction.
Significant cooling
This should take the circulation towards the south Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coasts by Monday (November 30) and spark off some rain activity, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in an update on Thursday. Seawaters along the till-now productive stretch linking south-west Bay of Bengal to the south-east have cooled down significantly compared with those prevailing in the upper Bay of Bengal basin as well to the south.
This robbed the ‘low’ off the much-needed support at the ground level, reducing the moisture feed as well. International models have been indicating the progression of a cyclonic circulation towards the sub-continent, if not the ‘low.’
An update from the Chennai Met Centre said that isolated rainfall has been reported from Kerala, Tamil Nadu, coastal and south interior Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Thursday morning.
The north-east monsoon is currently in a weak phase with the southern peninsula slipping under a dry spell over the last couple of days. Weather models, though, suggest that isolated rain or thundershower activity would continue.
The outlook from the Chennai Met Centre has said that isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Lakshadweep, coastal and south interior Karnataka over the next two days.
The satellite cloud imagery put out by the IMD showed convective clouds over parts of south Arabian Sea.
According to the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the rain-or-thundershower regime over the southern peninsula would last until December 3 with slightly concentrated wet regime over the Tamil Nadu coast.
December 4 to 12 would witness a renewed push of rains from the south and south-east ahead of the next wet phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave that travels in the upper levels from west to east.
The wave provides guidance for weather to play out over ground by helping set off convection, cloud-building and precipitation. The alternating suppressed rainfall phase (dry phase) of the MJO event is currently in operation over the peninsular seas.
Towards the north, minimum temperatures were below normal over many parts of east and northwest India and the North-eastern States on Thursday, an IMD update said.
The lowest minimum temperature of 5.0 deg Celsius was recorded at Sarsawa in Uttar Pradesh as colder north-westerly winds continued to blow into the country.
Outlook for the next two days said that minimum temperatures are likely to fall further over parts of central and east India and plains of northwest India.
A fresh western disturbance is likely to affect western Himalayan region from Sunday. The arrival phase would reverse the dip in mercury for a while, but would again turn colder after the westerly system moves away to the east.
Significant cooling
This should take the circulation towards the south Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coasts by Monday (November 30) and spark off some rain activity, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in an update on Thursday. Seawaters along the till-now productive stretch linking south-west Bay of Bengal to the south-east have cooled down significantly compared with those prevailing in the upper Bay of Bengal basin as well to the south.
This robbed the ‘low’ off the much-needed support at the ground level, reducing the moisture feed as well. International models have been indicating the progression of a cyclonic circulation towards the sub-continent, if not the ‘low.’
An update from the Chennai Met Centre said that isolated rainfall has been reported from Kerala, Tamil Nadu, coastal and south interior Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Thursday morning.
The north-east monsoon is currently in a weak phase with the southern peninsula slipping under a dry spell over the last couple of days. Weather models, though, suggest that isolated rain or thundershower activity would continue.
The outlook from the Chennai Met Centre has said that isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Lakshadweep, coastal and south interior Karnataka over the next two days.
The satellite cloud imagery put out by the IMD showed convective clouds over parts of south Arabian Sea.
According to the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the rain-or-thundershower regime over the southern peninsula would last until December 3 with slightly concentrated wet regime over the Tamil Nadu coast.
December 4 to 12 would witness a renewed push of rains from the south and south-east ahead of the next wet phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave that travels in the upper levels from west to east.
The wave provides guidance for weather to play out over ground by helping set off convection, cloud-building and precipitation. The alternating suppressed rainfall phase (dry phase) of the MJO event is currently in operation over the peninsular seas.
Towards the north, minimum temperatures were below normal over many parts of east and northwest India and the North-eastern States on Thursday, an IMD update said.
The lowest minimum temperature of 5.0 deg Celsius was recorded at Sarsawa in Uttar Pradesh as colder north-westerly winds continued to blow into the country.
Outlook for the next two days said that minimum temperatures are likely to fall further over parts of central and east India and plains of northwest India.
A fresh western disturbance is likely to affect western Himalayan region from Sunday. The arrival phase would reverse the dip in mercury for a while, but would again turn colder after the westerly system moves away to the east.
Informative Sweet little reader comments
READER:: sset said...
Very strange. Last year same time we had cyclone Nisha. This year weakest of monsoon. In fact we can't even say this is monsoon. Back to dog days for TamilNadu.
Sweet & informative reponse from another READER::
Dear SSET,
Asian Summer Monsoon which is a giant wind pattern originating from Mascerene High {30 S /60 E.The moisture laden winds blow across Indian Ocean and also [1] Arabian sea [2] Bay of Bengal [3] south China Sea and brings rainfall to all Asian countries like India, China, Bangladesh, Srilanka etc. This monsoon rain is life line for people live in these countries. In India 90% of the entire continent except Tamilnadu is getting rainfall during SW monsoon period. [TN too gets rainfall 36-42 percent of annual rainfall.
North East Monsoon is smaller system compared to SW monsoon. Further NEM is nothing but reversal of wind pattern or retreating SW monsoon. During this season only TN is mainly benefited.
Of course Mumbai recorde 94.7 cm rainfall during July 2005. Even in Tamilnadu there are places like Kuthiraivetty in Tirunelveli district which during 1991 November cyclone received 97.0cm rainfall. This is ONE DAY ANNUAL MAXIMUM RAINFALL recorded in TN. Recently KETTY recorded 82.0 cm rainfall. NEM is also life line for TN.
CHINNA KALLAR, DEVALA, UPPR KOTHIYAR, are the wettest places in TN where the annual rainfall is more than 3000 mm to 5500 mm.
Chinna Kallar is the wettest place in south India. It receives more than 5500 mm rainfall annually.
So Please do not blame it.
Very strange. Last year same time we had cyclone Nisha. This year weakest of monsoon. In fact we can't even say this is monsoon. Back to dog days for TamilNadu.
Sweet & informative reponse from another READER::
Dear SSET,
Asian Summer Monsoon which is a giant wind pattern originating from Mascerene High {30 S /60 E.The moisture laden winds blow across Indian Ocean and also [1] Arabian sea [2] Bay of Bengal [3] south China Sea and brings rainfall to all Asian countries like India, China, Bangladesh, Srilanka etc. This monsoon rain is life line for people live in these countries. In India 90% of the entire continent except Tamilnadu is getting rainfall during SW monsoon period. [TN too gets rainfall 36-42 percent of annual rainfall.
North East Monsoon is smaller system compared to SW monsoon. Further NEM is nothing but reversal of wind pattern or retreating SW monsoon. During this season only TN is mainly benefited.
Of course Mumbai recorde 94.7 cm rainfall during July 2005. Even in Tamilnadu there are places like Kuthiraivetty in Tirunelveli district which during 1991 November cyclone received 97.0cm rainfall. This is ONE DAY ANNUAL MAXIMUM RAINFALL recorded in TN. Recently KETTY recorded 82.0 cm rainfall. NEM is also life line for TN.
CHINNA KALLAR, DEVALA, UPPR KOTHIYAR, are the wettest places in TN where the annual rainfall is more than 3000 mm to 5500 mm.
Chinna Kallar is the wettest place in south India. It receives more than 5500 mm rainfall annually.
So Please do not blame it.
Thursday, November 26, 2009
We are well into a DRY phase of MJO .. take a look and will last till 11-Dec-09 .. http://yfrog.com/37nfqg
Whole of India and Bay is clear all thru the day .. except south-south and south-east Bay .. http://yfrog.com/4fs5bj
FNMOC EFS model also suggest the same .. http://yfrog.com/4ginvg .. so TN coast can look forward to a wet start to December.
NOGAPS and COLA GFS model suggest a LOW pressure system to close in TN coast around Sunday, 28-Nov-09 .. http://ping.fm/r2AGV
Where is "95B" again?? satellite shows a super clear India .. http://yfrog.com/1d3u0j ... Dry MJO taking control.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
‘Low’ pops up over South-East Bay, may intensify
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has traced a low-pressure over South-East Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea on Tuesday.
The system is likely to become more marked, the IMD outlook said. It may persist during the next three days with a movement to west-north-west – towards the Sri Lankan coast.
The cyclonic circulation tracking model, NGP, by the US National Centrefor Environmental Prediction agreed with this outlook positing the system for a landfall over Sri Lanka and adjoining South-East Tamil Nadu coast by November 30.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
But the Canadian Meteorological Centre took the system to a more north-north-west track that would take it to central Tamil Nadu coast during the same time span.
Satellite imagery showed convective clouds over parts of south Bay of Bengal and South-East Arabian Sea. The IMD has forecast isolated to scattered rainfall over extreme south peninsular India during until the weekend.
The Chennai Regional Meteorological Centre said that rainfall occurred at a few places over Tamil Nadu. Isolated rainfall occurred over Karnataka, Kerala, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema.
The North-East monsoon was subdued during the past 24 hours ending Tuesday morning as a dry phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave began impacting equatorial Indian Ocean and neighbourhood.
But, easterlies still continue to make their presence felt over the Bay of Bengal, more so, to the east and south-east. There is a low-pressure area upstream in the South China Sea as well, sustaining the flows into the Bay.
Tuesday’s ‘low’ over south-east Bay of Bengal would be able to relay in the moisture-laden easterlies further to the west.
In this manner, the scattered to isolated rainfall regime over south peninsular India should hold until the weekend.
Meanwhile, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sees the possibility of a busy South China Sea pushing in a fresh circulation into the Bay by the weekend.
It is tipped to keep moving to the west in the Bay basin until December 4 by when it would have washed ashore over the Tamil Nadu coast. It would set off a basin-wide trough that could cover east and south-east Arabian Sea as well.
RAIN FORECAST
Forecast by the Chennai Met Centre for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh and south interior Karnataka.
Towards the north, a feeble western disturbance is affecting the western Himalayan region. Cold wave conditions prevailed in some parts of Himachal Pradesh.
Isolated rain or snow has been forecast over the region during the next two days.
Maximum temperatures are below normal over parts of Madhya Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.
The system is likely to become more marked, the IMD outlook said. It may persist during the next three days with a movement to west-north-west – towards the Sri Lankan coast.
The cyclonic circulation tracking model, NGP, by the US National Centrefor Environmental Prediction agreed with this outlook positing the system for a landfall over Sri Lanka and adjoining South-East Tamil Nadu coast by November 30.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
But the Canadian Meteorological Centre took the system to a more north-north-west track that would take it to central Tamil Nadu coast during the same time span.
Satellite imagery showed convective clouds over parts of south Bay of Bengal and South-East Arabian Sea. The IMD has forecast isolated to scattered rainfall over extreme south peninsular India during until the weekend.
The Chennai Regional Meteorological Centre said that rainfall occurred at a few places over Tamil Nadu. Isolated rainfall occurred over Karnataka, Kerala, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema.
The North-East monsoon was subdued during the past 24 hours ending Tuesday morning as a dry phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave began impacting equatorial Indian Ocean and neighbourhood.
But, easterlies still continue to make their presence felt over the Bay of Bengal, more so, to the east and south-east. There is a low-pressure area upstream in the South China Sea as well, sustaining the flows into the Bay.
Tuesday’s ‘low’ over south-east Bay of Bengal would be able to relay in the moisture-laden easterlies further to the west.
In this manner, the scattered to isolated rainfall regime over south peninsular India should hold until the weekend.
Meanwhile, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sees the possibility of a busy South China Sea pushing in a fresh circulation into the Bay by the weekend.
It is tipped to keep moving to the west in the Bay basin until December 4 by when it would have washed ashore over the Tamil Nadu coast. It would set off a basin-wide trough that could cover east and south-east Arabian Sea as well.
RAIN FORECAST
Forecast by the Chennai Met Centre for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh and south interior Karnataka.
Towards the north, a feeble western disturbance is affecting the western Himalayan region. Cold wave conditions prevailed in some parts of Himachal Pradesh.
Isolated rain or snow has been forecast over the region during the next two days.
Maximum temperatures are below normal over parts of Madhya Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.
The present "95B" system may not be able to move north-west into Bay of bengal, due to cooler sea temperature .. http://yfrog.com/3ly3dj
Latest "Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential " .. which is right over "95B" .. http://yfrog.com/3nrgij ..
Active monsoon conditions over south TN, Kerala
North-East monsoon has been active over south Tamil Nadu and Kerala during the last 24 hours ending Monday morning, according to an update from the Chennai Met Centre.
Rainfall occurred at most places over south Tamil Nadu and at many places over north Tamil Nadu and Kerala and at a few places over Lakshadweep, coastal Andhra Pradesh, coastal and south interior Karnataka.
Forecast for the next two days spoke about the possibility of rain or thundershowers mainly over south Tamil Nadu and south Kerala.
A few places over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, north Kerala, Lakshadweep, Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, coast and south interior Karnataka also are expected to witness thundershowers.
SEAS COOL DOWN
Sea-surface temperature (SST) maps on Monday revealed that the stretch of hyper-active convection linking southeast Bay and adjoining East Indian Ocean to southwest Bay of Bengal around Sri Lanka has let off some steam due to incessant rains over the past few days. These seas are still warm beyond the threshold limit allowing them to host, or facilitate easy passage to, weather systems that choose to move towards Sri Lanka or mainland India.
This narrow stretch of comparatively cooler waters is bordered on both sides by the warmest waters (entire Bay of Bengal to the north and East Indian Ocean to the south) of the northeast monsoon region.
According to international model forecasts, the Bay of Bengal would increasingly get busier with easterly convective rain bands shown to extend into its northern flanks during the course of the week. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) projected that the build-up may culminate in the formation of a low-pressure area just off central and south-central Tamil Nadu coast during early December.
This is likely to coincide with the landfall of another powerful typhoon over the Philippines, the ECMWF predictions said.
The US National Centres of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is of the view that entire southern peninsula would continue to witness scattered to fairly widespread rains during this week.
FRESH CONVECTION
This outlook also suggested that north Bay of Bengal would witness raised level of activity, which is in line with the ECMWF outlook. NCEP’s forecast for the first week of December indicated fresh convection starting to build over equatorial Indian Ocean.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Monday said that the cyclonic circulation over south west Bay of Bengal and adjoining Comorin area had shifted to over southeast Arabian Sea
Rainfall occurred at most places over south Tamil Nadu and at many places over north Tamil Nadu and Kerala and at a few places over Lakshadweep, coastal Andhra Pradesh, coastal and south interior Karnataka.
Forecast for the next two days spoke about the possibility of rain or thundershowers mainly over south Tamil Nadu and south Kerala.
A few places over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, north Kerala, Lakshadweep, Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, coast and south interior Karnataka also are expected to witness thundershowers.
SEAS COOL DOWN
Sea-surface temperature (SST) maps on Monday revealed that the stretch of hyper-active convection linking southeast Bay and adjoining East Indian Ocean to southwest Bay of Bengal around Sri Lanka has let off some steam due to incessant rains over the past few days. These seas are still warm beyond the threshold limit allowing them to host, or facilitate easy passage to, weather systems that choose to move towards Sri Lanka or mainland India.
This narrow stretch of comparatively cooler waters is bordered on both sides by the warmest waters (entire Bay of Bengal to the north and East Indian Ocean to the south) of the northeast monsoon region.
According to international model forecasts, the Bay of Bengal would increasingly get busier with easterly convective rain bands shown to extend into its northern flanks during the course of the week. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) projected that the build-up may culminate in the formation of a low-pressure area just off central and south-central Tamil Nadu coast during early December.
This is likely to coincide with the landfall of another powerful typhoon over the Philippines, the ECMWF predictions said.
The US National Centres of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is of the view that entire southern peninsula would continue to witness scattered to fairly widespread rains during this week.
FRESH CONVECTION
This outlook also suggested that north Bay of Bengal would witness raised level of activity, which is in line with the ECMWF outlook. NCEP’s forecast for the first week of December indicated fresh convection starting to build over equatorial Indian Ocean.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Monday said that the cyclonic circulation over south west Bay of Bengal and adjoining Comorin area had shifted to over southeast Arabian Sea
El Nino Resurging in November 2009
El Niño is experiencing a late-fall resurgence. Recent measurements of sea level height from the Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM)/Jason-2 oceanography satellite showed that a strong wave of warm water, known as a Kelvin wave, had spread from the western to the central and eastern Pacific. This warm wave appears as the large area of higher-than-normal sea surface heights in the area between 170 degrees east and 100 degrees west longitude.
This image was created with data collected OSTM/Jason 2 during a 10-day period centered on November 1, 2009. Red and white areas in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific were 100 to 180 millimeters (4 to 7 inches) above normal. In the western equatorial Pacific, blue and purple areas show where sea levels were between 80 and 150 millimeters (3 and 6 inches) below normal.
Sea surface height is an indication of temperature because water expands slightly as it warms and contracts as it cools. The elevated sea levels in the central and eastern Pacific are equivalent to sea surface temperatures more than one to two degrees Celsius above normal (two to four degrees Fahrenheit).
The Kelvin wave was triggered by a large-scale, sustained weakening of trade winds in the western and central equatorial Pacific during October. The change in winds disturbs not only the surface currents but also the deeper ocean circulation. The disturbances reverberate along the thermocline—the boundary between warm, surface water and cold, deep water—as large, slow-moving waves. Similar, weaker events that began in June 2009 initially triggered and have sustained the present El Niño.
Although El Niño means drought in some parts of the world, in other places it can bring drought relief. “In the American West, where we are struggling under serious drought conditions, this late-fall charge by El Niño is a pleasant surprise, upping the odds for much needed rain and an above-normal winter snowpack,” said oceanographer Bill Patzert of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California.
Amazing Wave Clouds from South Sandwich Islands
As they cross the ocean, ships make waves in the water. Even though they sit still, islands can make equally dramatic waves—in the air. This was the case in the southern Atlantic Ocean in late November 2009. The South Sandwich Islands conspired with air currents to make wave patterns in clouds.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this natural-color (photo-like) image on November 23, 2009. Saunders, Montagu, and Bristol Islands, part of the South Sandwich chain, all trigger V-shaped waves that fan out toward the east. The white clouds over the dark ocean water vaguely resemble zebra stripes.
The South Sandwich Islands are of volcanic origin—Bristol and Montagu have been active during recorded history—and all the islands poke rugged summits above the ocean surface. The islands disturb the smooth flow of air, creating waves that ripple through the atmosphere downwind of the obstacles.
Tropical Storm Nida
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this true-color image on November 23, 2009. Focusing on the center of the storm, this image shows what appears to be a tall cloud tower casting a shadow to the north. Thick clouds fan out from this apparent tower toward the west and south. On the north and east sides, a break appears in the clouds, but a larger ring of clouds surrounds the storm’s center.
@@@ Our reader comment @@@@@@@@@@@
In west Pacific at 10.8 Deg North and 143.7 Deg East NIDA is brewing. Expected Central Pressure 956 hPa.[Terrifying nature, in deed]
27 W & 96 W are also brewing. Similarly in Indian Ocean 5.6N / 92.2 E (96B)is brewing. However as the upper guiding winds are SWly there are chance it may take re curvature when it enters Bay and may hit Myanmar. [But this is too early to be precise]
Calcutta - weather mystery
Winter has come a fortnight early but experts are not sure how long it will stay, given the year’s bizarre weather patterns. “For all you know, it might leave earlier than usual,” said O.P. Sharma, the chief meteorologist in a private agency.
Metro decodes the freak meteorological year that is.
Summer heat waves
A heat wave scorched the city from April 18 to 28. The period was the hottest in six decades with the mercury crossing 40 degrees eight times.
May began with a nine-day heat wave when the mercury soared to 41.8 degrees.
Local factors: Nor’westers could not develop as there was not enough moisture in the lower troposphere.
Global factors: Hot, dry northwesterlies and westerlies blew in from central Asia because of the heat wave in central and north India.
Monsoon’s early arrival
Rains arrived on May 25, a fortnight before schedule, powered by Cyclone Aila.
Local factors: The formation of the cyclone over the Bay.
Global factors: Experts blame Aila’s ferocity — responsible for the monsoon’s early arrival — on global warming.
June heat wave
After entering Bengal on May 25, the monsoon flow took 30 days to get activated. So, June was dry and hot. A weeklong heat wave tormented the city from June 7.
Local factors: Lack of enough moisture in the lower troposphere, hindering formation of rain clouds.
Global factors: El Nino (warming of sea water) over the Pacific Ocean delayed monsoon activation.
Maverick monsoon
Rainfall from May to August was 10 per cent below average. But the city finally closed its monsoon account with 15 per cent surplus rainfall, thanks to a surge in showers in September. The city received over 300mm rain between September 3 and 9 and more than 360mm in the Puja month (22 per cent more than usual).
Local factors: Variation in moisture content.
Global factors: El Nino, global warming and MaddenJulian Oscillation or MJo (fluctuation in atmospheric pressure over oceans).
November swelter
The first half was the hottest in five decades. Minimum temperature on November 15 was eight degrees above normal.
Local factors: A high-pressure belt over the Bay.
Global factors: None.
Winter comes early
The mercury started dropping after the November 16 rain; winter set in on Sunday.
Local factors: A low-pressure area over south Bengal.
Global factors: Wet wind from the Mediterranean Sea and the northwesterlies
Metro decodes the freak meteorological year that is.
Summer heat waves
A heat wave scorched the city from April 18 to 28. The period was the hottest in six decades with the mercury crossing 40 degrees eight times.
May began with a nine-day heat wave when the mercury soared to 41.8 degrees.
Local factors: Nor’westers could not develop as there was not enough moisture in the lower troposphere.
Global factors: Hot, dry northwesterlies and westerlies blew in from central Asia because of the heat wave in central and north India.
Monsoon’s early arrival
Rains arrived on May 25, a fortnight before schedule, powered by Cyclone Aila.
Local factors: The formation of the cyclone over the Bay.
Global factors: Experts blame Aila’s ferocity — responsible for the monsoon’s early arrival — on global warming.
June heat wave
After entering Bengal on May 25, the monsoon flow took 30 days to get activated. So, June was dry and hot. A weeklong heat wave tormented the city from June 7.
Local factors: Lack of enough moisture in the lower troposphere, hindering formation of rain clouds.
Global factors: El Nino (warming of sea water) over the Pacific Ocean delayed monsoon activation.
Maverick monsoon
Rainfall from May to August was 10 per cent below average. But the city finally closed its monsoon account with 15 per cent surplus rainfall, thanks to a surge in showers in September. The city received over 300mm rain between September 3 and 9 and more than 360mm in the Puja month (22 per cent more than usual).
Local factors: Variation in moisture content.
Global factors: El Nino, global warming and MaddenJulian Oscillation or MJo (fluctuation in atmospheric pressure over oceans).
November swelter
The first half was the hottest in five decades. Minimum temperature on November 15 was eight degrees above normal.
Local factors: A high-pressure belt over the Bay.
Global factors: None.
Winter comes early
The mercury started dropping after the November 16 rain; winter set in on Sunday.
Local factors: A low-pressure area over south Bengal.
Global factors: Wet wind from the Mediterranean Sea and the northwesterlies
COLA GFS.. now predicts a LOW pressure to move into north TN coast around 30-Nov .. http://yfrog.com/4f6v8p
Where is "95B"?? IMD's MM5 and WRF models still suggest a Depression formation around south-east Bay .. http://yfrog.com/3ni1cg
Satellite at 5:30am showed some cloud formations over central TN, north Kerala, and Gulf of Mannar .. http://yfrog.com/1doemj
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
satellite shows a slightly disorganized "95B" and heavy showers along Karnataka coast.. http://yfrog.com/3lpo5j
First LOW over Bay of Bengal for this NE season .. "95B"
Here's the latest visible shot of that system..
and IR shot.
And here's the advisory from JTWC ..
NO cyclone warning yet from IMD.
and IR shot.
And here's the advisory from JTWC ..
@@@@@@@@@@
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 91.1E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 91.3E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST OF THE
NORTHERN TIP OF SUMATRA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 231940Z AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED LLCC WITH CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 230336Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWED A 20-25 KNOT SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER MODERATE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEING FUELED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
@@@@@@@@@@
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 91.3E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST OF THE
NORTHERN TIP OF SUMATRA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 231940Z AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED LLCC WITH CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 230336Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWED A 20-25 KNOT SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER MODERATE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEING FUELED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
@@@@@@@@@@
NO cyclone warning yet from IMD.
Monday, November 23, 2009
All thru the day... south and south-east Bay is very active and building up .. http://yfrog.com/3gonzj
Easterly wave boosts weather over south Tamil Nadu
The northeast monsoon has been active over south Tamil Nadu during the 24 hours ending Sunday morning as an easterly wave buffeted extreme southern peninsula.
An update by the Chennai Regional Met centre said that rainfall occurred at most places over south Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep and at a few places over Kerala, north Tamil Nadu and south interior Karnataka.
Isolated rainfall occurred over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, coastal and north interior Karnataka.
Disturbed upstream
A warning of disturbed weather over the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand upstream has been extended until Monday by the Thailand Meteorological Department.
Easterly winds speeding up to between 20 to 35 km/hr, heavily overcast conditions and scattered thundershowers have been warned of over the Andaman Sea during this period.
A two-day forecast issued by the Chennai Met Centre said that rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over south Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
Isolated thundershowers have been forecast over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, coastal and south interior Karnataka. Isolated rain is likely over north interior Karnataka and Telangana.
Heavy rainfall warning has been issued for south Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the next 24 hours.
Outlook by India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that isolated to scattered rain activity would continue over south peninsular India until the end of the week, which is in agreement with that of most international models.
What is currently engaging the minds of weather watchers is the possibility of any organised convection taking place in the south and adjoining south-central Bay of Bengal during the week.
Almost the entire Bay basin has warmed up sufficiently – except along the coast of India - to be able to host a weather system.
In fact, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) had late last week hinted at the possibility of a weather system shaping up over south-central Bay of Bengal.
On Sunday, however, the IMD picked a cyclonic circulation each over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Comorin region. Satellite imagery showed convective clouds over parts of south Andaman Sea and southeast Arabian Sea.
The Canadian Meteorological Centre model hinted the possibility of formation of a low-pressure area over the south Tamil Nadu coast during this week.
The UK Met Office, as did a few other international models, saw a cyclonic circulation patrolling the southwest coast (off coastal Karnataka-Kerala) during this week.
The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services has said that rain or thundershowers are possible over the southern peninsula during the week with southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining east Indian Ocean continuing to be very active.
Meanwhile, the Empirical Wave Propagation method employed by the CPC to track the movement of weather-causing Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave has projected that the next wet phase would be active over equatorial Indian Ocean from December 11.
The wave would be particularly active around Sri Lanka and the southern Indian peninsula from December 16 to 26. This could favourably impact the northeast monsoon that normally runs until the end of December.
MJO TRACKING
The MJO wave travels in the upper levels of the atmosphere periodically from west to east and can set up weather over ground depending on its alternating wet or dry phase.
Back home, towards the north of the country, maximum temperatures were below normal by 2-4 degree Celsius over parts of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat during the 24 hours ending Sunday morning, the IMD update said.
Minimum temperatures too were below normal over parts of central, east and north east India, Punjab, north Haryana, east Uttar Pradesh and Telangana. The lowest minimum of 3.5 degree Celsius was recorded at Meerut.
Colder northwesterly winds continued to prevail over Indo-Gangetic Plains in the lower levels. No significant change in minimum temperatures is likely over northwest India during next 24 hours but a slight rise is seen thereafter.
An update by the Chennai Regional Met centre said that rainfall occurred at most places over south Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep and at a few places over Kerala, north Tamil Nadu and south interior Karnataka.
Isolated rainfall occurred over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, coastal and north interior Karnataka.
Disturbed upstream
A warning of disturbed weather over the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand upstream has been extended until Monday by the Thailand Meteorological Department.
Easterly winds speeding up to between 20 to 35 km/hr, heavily overcast conditions and scattered thundershowers have been warned of over the Andaman Sea during this period.
A two-day forecast issued by the Chennai Met Centre said that rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over south Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
Isolated thundershowers have been forecast over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, coastal and south interior Karnataka. Isolated rain is likely over north interior Karnataka and Telangana.
Heavy rainfall warning has been issued for south Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the next 24 hours.
Outlook by India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that isolated to scattered rain activity would continue over south peninsular India until the end of the week, which is in agreement with that of most international models.
What is currently engaging the minds of weather watchers is the possibility of any organised convection taking place in the south and adjoining south-central Bay of Bengal during the week.
Almost the entire Bay basin has warmed up sufficiently – except along the coast of India - to be able to host a weather system.
In fact, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) had late last week hinted at the possibility of a weather system shaping up over south-central Bay of Bengal.
On Sunday, however, the IMD picked a cyclonic circulation each over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Comorin region. Satellite imagery showed convective clouds over parts of south Andaman Sea and southeast Arabian Sea.
The Canadian Meteorological Centre model hinted the possibility of formation of a low-pressure area over the south Tamil Nadu coast during this week.
The UK Met Office, as did a few other international models, saw a cyclonic circulation patrolling the southwest coast (off coastal Karnataka-Kerala) during this week.
The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services has said that rain or thundershowers are possible over the southern peninsula during the week with southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining east Indian Ocean continuing to be very active.
Meanwhile, the Empirical Wave Propagation method employed by the CPC to track the movement of weather-causing Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave has projected that the next wet phase would be active over equatorial Indian Ocean from December 11.
The wave would be particularly active around Sri Lanka and the southern Indian peninsula from December 16 to 26. This could favourably impact the northeast monsoon that normally runs until the end of December.
MJO TRACKING
The MJO wave travels in the upper levels of the atmosphere periodically from west to east and can set up weather over ground depending on its alternating wet or dry phase.
Back home, towards the north of the country, maximum temperatures were below normal by 2-4 degree Celsius over parts of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat during the 24 hours ending Sunday morning, the IMD update said.
Minimum temperatures too were below normal over parts of central, east and north east India, Punjab, north Haryana, east Uttar Pradesh and Telangana. The lowest minimum of 3.5 degree Celsius was recorded at Meerut.
Colder northwesterly winds continued to prevail over Indo-Gangetic Plains in the lower levels. No significant change in minimum temperatures is likely over northwest India during next 24 hours but a slight rise is seen thereafter.
Today, More Rain for interior Tamilnadu..!
Again the clouds started moving along [76.5 to 77.5]Degree East longitude and spreading between [9.0 to 12.3]N Latitude. Tomorrow (23.11.2009) you can see rainfall in that corridor.i.e interior TN and adjoining districts in the EAST.
Reasons may be the drawl of North Westerly winds by the two vortex and /or circulations, one seen near Gulf of Mannar and the other in SE Arabian sea.i.e along 7.0 Deg N Latitude
Reasons may be the drawl of North Westerly winds by the two vortex and /or circulations, one seen near Gulf of Mannar and the other in SE Arabian sea.i.e along 7.0 Deg N Latitude
(cont..).. http://yfrog.com/4e2d1j .. this activity is predicted to form as a LOW pressure system and then die after nearing east srilanka.
As predicted we are witnessing heavy activity over south-south-east Bay .. http://yfrog.com/4e2d1j .. (cont..)
Sunday, November 22, 2009
CAPE Convection model indicates more rain over east Arabian sea than south-Bay .. http://yfrog.com/35oqzg
IMD-MM5 Model also predicts a south-east Bay Low pressure on 24-Nov, http://yfrog.com/377lug .. No movement prediction yet.!
IMD says `low' weakening, but other models don't agree
Rainfall has been reported from a few places over Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep and coastal Karnataka despite the suppressed phase of a Madden- Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave beginning to assert itself.
SUPPRESSED PHASE
The suppressed or `dry' phase of the MJO wave is the reverse of its rain-generating wet phase that has exited equatorial Indian Ocean and is moving into the west Pacific.
The alternating wet and dry phases of the MJO travel from west to east and areknown to significantly impact weather playing out over ground.
The recent wet phase had peaked with the triggering of the rare west coast cyclone, Phyan, and the moderate to widespread rainfall generated in its wake over a wide swathe north-north-east across the peninsula.
A residual area of convection left behind by the eastward bound wet MJO wave is active over the South China Sea, international models suggested. They were also of the view that the dry phase over equatorial Indian Ocean (in the vicinity of Sri Lanka and the southern Indian peninsula) may have just been set off over the West Indian Ocean, as of now.
But the peak phase over equatorial Indian Ocean would be felt from December 1 to 7, according to the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services.
This dry phase would last until December 11/12, following which the next wet phase of the MJO, a likely weaker episode than the predecessor, may set in over equatorial Indian Ocean reviving the north-east monsoon yet again over Sri Lanka and southern India.
On Wednesday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its update that the previous day's low-pressure area over south-east Bay of Bengal persisted but showed signs of weakening. But the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre of the US Navy has suggested that the `low', tagged 95B Invest, is apparently doing well for itself with estimated wind speeds of 20 knots (37 km/hr).
The NGP model of the US Navy that tracks cyclonic circulations has maintained that the system will sustain and keep travelling to the west to eye Sri Lanka coast for a likely landfall, though not spectacular. The Canadian Meteorological Centre too believes that the system would survive the apparently none-too-helpful environment to track north first before moving west to the Sri Lanka-South-east Tamil Nadu belt.
Significantly, the UK Met Office mode has predicted that the system may fail to make the grade and die out over the south-east Bay.
Easterlies may be weakening but the precipitation forecast by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction expects the occasional thundershowers over the southern peninsula to hold during the short to medium term.
In its outlook for the next two days, the Chennai Met Centre has said that rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Lakshadweep.
RAINS FORECAST
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Kerala, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, coastal and south interior Karnataka.
Satellite cloud imagery showed convective clouds over parts of south Bay of Bengal. The IMD expected a subdued rainfall regime over extreme south peninsular India during the next four days.
North-westerly winds will continue to prevail over the Indo-Gangetic plains while it would be northerlies over east and adjoining central India during the next two days.
Minimum temperatures are likely to fall by over parts of central and east India and plains of north-west India during this period.
On Wednesday, maximum temperatures were below normal over some parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains and adjoining central and east India.
Minimum temperatures are below normal by 2-4øC over many parts of east India. The lowest minimum temperature of 4.5 deg Celsius was recorded at Rohtak.
SUPPRESSED PHASE
The suppressed or `dry' phase of the MJO wave is the reverse of its rain-generating wet phase that has exited equatorial Indian Ocean and is moving into the west Pacific.
The alternating wet and dry phases of the MJO travel from west to east and areknown to significantly impact weather playing out over ground.
The recent wet phase had peaked with the triggering of the rare west coast cyclone, Phyan, and the moderate to widespread rainfall generated in its wake over a wide swathe north-north-east across the peninsula.
A residual area of convection left behind by the eastward bound wet MJO wave is active over the South China Sea, international models suggested. They were also of the view that the dry phase over equatorial Indian Ocean (in the vicinity of Sri Lanka and the southern Indian peninsula) may have just been set off over the West Indian Ocean, as of now.
But the peak phase over equatorial Indian Ocean would be felt from December 1 to 7, according to the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services.
This dry phase would last until December 11/12, following which the next wet phase of the MJO, a likely weaker episode than the predecessor, may set in over equatorial Indian Ocean reviving the north-east monsoon yet again over Sri Lanka and southern India.
On Wednesday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its update that the previous day's low-pressure area over south-east Bay of Bengal persisted but showed signs of weakening. But the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre of the US Navy has suggested that the `low', tagged 95B Invest, is apparently doing well for itself with estimated wind speeds of 20 knots (37 km/hr).
The NGP model of the US Navy that tracks cyclonic circulations has maintained that the system will sustain and keep travelling to the west to eye Sri Lanka coast for a likely landfall, though not spectacular. The Canadian Meteorological Centre too believes that the system would survive the apparently none-too-helpful environment to track north first before moving west to the Sri Lanka-South-east Tamil Nadu belt.
Significantly, the UK Met Office mode has predicted that the system may fail to make the grade and die out over the south-east Bay.
Easterlies may be weakening but the precipitation forecast by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction expects the occasional thundershowers over the southern peninsula to hold during the short to medium term.
In its outlook for the next two days, the Chennai Met Centre has said that rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Lakshadweep.
RAINS FORECAST
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Kerala, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, coastal and south interior Karnataka.
Satellite cloud imagery showed convective clouds over parts of south Bay of Bengal. The IMD expected a subdued rainfall regime over extreme south peninsular India during the next four days.
North-westerly winds will continue to prevail over the Indo-Gangetic plains while it would be northerlies over east and adjoining central India during the next two days.
Minimum temperatures are likely to fall by over parts of central and east India and plains of north-west India during this period.
On Wednesday, maximum temperatures were below normal over some parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains and adjoining central and east India.
Minimum temperatures are below normal by 2-4øC over many parts of east India. The lowest minimum temperature of 4.5 deg Celsius was recorded at Rohtak.
Why south Tamilnadu is getting more showers??
This post we got thru an anonymous comment to one of our post.
Cloud movement from NORTH w.r.t Chennai is an indication that low pressure area is in down SOUTH. [22.11.2009/0600 UTC]. The Five Degree Latitude belt is active. This can be termed as [Easterly]wave like pattern, where troughs will be a point of formation of vortex or cyclonic circulation [anti clockwise]
This is December pattern and is known to weatherman. But this time the belt is far down south beneath five degree latitude. That is why south tamilnadu and SE coastal Tamilnadu is getting rain.
Cloud movement from NORTH w.r.t Chennai is an indication that low pressure area is in down SOUTH. [22.11.2009/0600 UTC]. The Five Degree Latitude belt is active. This can be termed as [Easterly]wave like pattern, where troughs will be a point of formation of vortex or cyclonic circulation [anti clockwise]
This is December pattern and is known to weatherman. But this time the belt is far down south beneath five degree latitude. That is why south tamilnadu and SE coastal Tamilnadu is getting rain.
Here's the COLA - GFS model for 28-Nov..http://yfrog.com/4fn9lp .. which shows a severe Cyclone tracking into central Bay.
A clear looking Bay till extreme south-east .. Dry MJO is taking control ??? .. http://yfrog.com/4akssj
Saturday, November 21, 2009
Gulf of Mannar is active, today's showers are mostly concentrated over central and western Tamilnadu .. http://yfrog.com/4gj96j
Satellite shows. South-east Bay is getting ready to host a Cyclone/depression .. http://yfrog.com/37m1nj
More technical comments by our readers.
Anonymous has left a new comment on your post "We should get showers atleast till 10-Dec to suppo...":
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I am very optimistic that the NEM will continue till mid of December. The bay below 5 Degree North right from Thai to TN coast has become active of late. The historical LOW PRESSURE AREA [LOPAR] which is (was) always seen in the Bay now shifted to south of Comrin and the cyclogensis area or LOPAR is in that stretch only. However such a formation is not NEW to us, and it had been reported during 1940 or so. {Chronological order may slightly differ}During such period southern Tamilnadu especially Thoothukudi & Tirunelveli districts will receive copious rainfall. You may see the names of villages in THOOTHUKUDI district and near by as'SATTANKULAM,URUMANKULAM,PEIYKULAM,PETTAIKULAM' etc.
So this year we may expect NEM to rain at least until mid of Dec 2009 Moreover the remnants of NEM will follow in January 2010 too.
Not to worry about ground water. However replenishing ground water with this short time rainfall {Oct-Dec] is disproportionate to its drastic drawls
############################
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I am very optimistic that the NEM will continue till mid of December. The bay below 5 Degree North right from Thai to TN coast has become active of late. The historical LOW PRESSURE AREA [LOPAR] which is (was) always seen in the Bay now shifted to south of Comrin and the cyclogensis area or LOPAR is in that stretch only. However such a formation is not NEW to us, and it had been reported during 1940 or so. {Chronological order may slightly differ}During such period southern Tamilnadu especially Thoothukudi & Tirunelveli districts will receive copious rainfall. You may see the names of villages in THOOTHUKUDI district and near by as'SATTANKULAM,URUMANKULAM,PEIYKULAM,PETTAIKULAM' etc.
So this year we may expect NEM to rain at least until mid of Dec 2009 Moreover the remnants of NEM will follow in January 2010 too.
Not to worry about ground water. However replenishing ground water with this short time rainfall {Oct-Dec] is disproportionate to its drastic drawls
############################
If you want to have this posted in www.indianweatherman.com, please mail your POST to weatherblog@gmail.com
We are also providing Co-Author status to approved people for posting directly without moderation.
North-East monsoon may get into `surge mode' again
The North-East monsoon is in a "surge mode" upstream of the Bay of Bengal with high winds and heavy rains warned of in the Gulf of Thailand over the next two days.
This is being triggered by the massive seasonal high-pressure area covering China now extending a "limb" south into mainland Thailand compressing the north-easterly flows over the Thai Gulf and the Malacca Straits.
GROUND SETTING
Even otherwise, the ground setting for the surge was more or less complete with the arrival of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave, very warm seas and intense convection across an area stretching west to the Bay of Bengal and reaching the Sri Lankan and Indian coasts.
The MJO wave travels in the upper levels and sets off weather activity or magnifies existing weather over ground. The wave moves west to east, and had been active over equatorial Indian Ocean until now.
Meanwhile, the Thai Met Department has warned ships, especially small boats, sailing through the Gulf and the adjoining Andaman Sea to exercise caution over the next two days, given the monsoon surge.
It is likely that the disturbed weather may get propagated into the southeast Bay of Bengal from across the Thai peninsula over the very warm waters (up to 31 deg Celsius).
On Friday, the Thai Met Department saw a cyclonic circulation each over the southern tip of India as well as half-way down to the east-southeast. India Met Department (IMD) too traced a cyclonic circulation lying over Kerala on Friday.
BAY STORM LIKELY
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees a churn being set off over south-east Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea during the next week and getting propagated to the west in phases.
The system will grow in intensity by Nov 29-30, and may reach depression status over south-central Bay of Bengal and would be positioned to hit north Tamil Nadu-south coastal Andhra Pradesh coast.
Further strengthening of the system would depend on the prevailing sea-surface temperatures, which are currently cooler side towards the Indian coast.
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) supports this outlook by suggesting a wet regime for the entire southern peninsula during November 20 to 27 with concentrated rains forecast for Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coasts.
The NCEP expects to see this wet spell lingering through the following week (Nov 28 to Dec 6) as well, especially along the Tamil Nadu coast.
IMD observations on Friday also talked about the presence of a trough of low (not amounting to a low-pressure area) over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sri Lanka. This is an extension weather of the brewing disturbed weather over upstream Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand.
The Chennai Met Centre said in its update that rainfall occurred at many places over Kerala and coastal Andhra Pradesh and at a few places over coastal Tamil Nadu and south interior Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Friday morning.
MORE RAIN
Isolated rainfall was reported from interior Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, Telangana, coastal and north interior Karnataka.
Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at many places over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry and at a few places over interior Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and coastal Karnataka.
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over interior Karnataka and Telangana.
A warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy rain is likely over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
Towards the north, minimum temperatures are likely to fall by 1-2 deg Celsius over northwest India and by 2-4 deg Celsius over central and adjoining east India during the next few days.
This is being triggered by the massive seasonal high-pressure area covering China now extending a "limb" south into mainland Thailand compressing the north-easterly flows over the Thai Gulf and the Malacca Straits.
GROUND SETTING
Even otherwise, the ground setting for the surge was more or less complete with the arrival of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave, very warm seas and intense convection across an area stretching west to the Bay of Bengal and reaching the Sri Lankan and Indian coasts.
The MJO wave travels in the upper levels and sets off weather activity or magnifies existing weather over ground. The wave moves west to east, and had been active over equatorial Indian Ocean until now.
Meanwhile, the Thai Met Department has warned ships, especially small boats, sailing through the Gulf and the adjoining Andaman Sea to exercise caution over the next two days, given the monsoon surge.
It is likely that the disturbed weather may get propagated into the southeast Bay of Bengal from across the Thai peninsula over the very warm waters (up to 31 deg Celsius).
On Friday, the Thai Met Department saw a cyclonic circulation each over the southern tip of India as well as half-way down to the east-southeast. India Met Department (IMD) too traced a cyclonic circulation lying over Kerala on Friday.
BAY STORM LIKELY
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees a churn being set off over south-east Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea during the next week and getting propagated to the west in phases.
The system will grow in intensity by Nov 29-30, and may reach depression status over south-central Bay of Bengal and would be positioned to hit north Tamil Nadu-south coastal Andhra Pradesh coast.
Further strengthening of the system would depend on the prevailing sea-surface temperatures, which are currently cooler side towards the Indian coast.
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) supports this outlook by suggesting a wet regime for the entire southern peninsula during November 20 to 27 with concentrated rains forecast for Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coasts.
The NCEP expects to see this wet spell lingering through the following week (Nov 28 to Dec 6) as well, especially along the Tamil Nadu coast.
IMD observations on Friday also talked about the presence of a trough of low (not amounting to a low-pressure area) over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sri Lanka. This is an extension weather of the brewing disturbed weather over upstream Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand.
The Chennai Met Centre said in its update that rainfall occurred at many places over Kerala and coastal Andhra Pradesh and at a few places over coastal Tamil Nadu and south interior Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Friday morning.
MORE RAIN
Isolated rainfall was reported from interior Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, Telangana, coastal and north interior Karnataka.
Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at many places over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry and at a few places over interior Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and coastal Karnataka.
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over interior Karnataka and Telangana.
A warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy rain is likely over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
Towards the north, minimum temperatures are likely to fall by 1-2 deg Celsius over northwest India and by 2-4 deg Celsius over central and adjoining east India during the next few days.
RT @Karthik22: @weatherofindia latest gfs showing cyclone make landfall near nellore http://ow.ly/EdB nogaps cmc models not keen on this tc yet
Satellite shows, Heavy showers over south-east coastal TN and extreme south tip of TN .. Bay is active as well. http://yfrog.com/1yv1tj
Today's GFS model suggests Cyclone formation over south-east Bay and intensifying and moving North into Bay .. http://yfrog.com/1y96hp
Friday, November 20, 2009
North-East monsoon yields 19% excess rain so far .. except coastal Andhra Pradesh with a 27 per cent deficit .. http://is.gd/4ZBIo
North-East monsoon yields 19% excess rain
More than a month-and-a-half into the season, the northeast or winter monsoon has generated excess rainfall of 19 per cent during the season so far (October 1 to November 18).
The season has been normal or above normal over the southern peninsula (except coastal Andhra Pradesh with a 27 per cent deficit), west-central, central, north and east India.
IN DEFICIT STILL
The northwest continued to disappoint, especially the bread baskets of Punjab and Haryana. But the entire Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Maharashtra returned gains in excess of the usual.
Chhattisgarh (22 per cent); Gangetic West Bengal (35 per cent) and Arunachal Pradesh (29 per cent) too have run up varying deficits during this period.
Leading international models had suggested that November would likely see northwest India being left in the lurch while peninsular India would make the most gains.
The India Meteorological Department's (IMD) rainfall maps showed the `gateways' in the northwest - Punjab, Haryana, west Rajasthan and Saurashtra-Kutch - reporting scanty rainfall.
But model predictions favour comparatively better times going further into the winter for these regions.
They get their seasonal rains from western disturbances of significant magnitude with embedded cyclonic whirls.
Most of the rains generated during the season until now have fallen eastward from Uttarkhand, west Uttar Pradesh, east Rajasthan and Gujarat.
Some qualitative change to the scenario was discernible only during the latest week (ending Wednesday) when west Rajasthan alone posted scanty rainfall and Saurashtra-Kutch, deficient - the rest of the country had excess rainfall.
MORE RAINS
Meanwhile, the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) saw more rain being generated over Sri Lanka and along the Tamil Nadu coast during November 19 to 26.
The entire southeast and southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining East Indian Ocean, a `hotspot' for quite sometime now, will continue to set up weather for the southern peninsula during this phase.
The realised rains are expected to be normal over Tamil Nadu but in excess over the west coast, especially around coastal Karnataka, according to the NCEP outlook.
The following week (November 27 to December 5) is forecast to see a fresh wave of rains approach the Tamil Nadu coast from the east and the southeast.
The European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) too, agrees and picked successive cyclonic circulations patrolling the southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal from Sunday to Tuesday.
A broad area of lower pressure may get thrown up covering the south Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal around midweek next week. This should trigger a conventional `low' in the region the next day or the day after.
This could well be the causative feature of the rains that the NCEP sees falling over India's southeast coast and adjoining Sri Lanka during the next week and possibly into early December.
VIGORUS MONSOON
An update from the Regional Met Centre, Chennai, said that the northeast monsoon has been vigorous over south coastal Andhra Pradesh during the 24 hours ending Thursday morning.
Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Lakshadweep, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.
The cyclonic circulation over south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala persisted on Thursday. But the trough from south Konkan coast to Chhattisgarh that emptied rains over central and east-central India during the past few days has weakened.
REMNANT WHIRL
It has, however, left behind a cyclonic circulation over south Chhattisgarh and adjoining coastal Andhra Pradesh. Another cyclonic circulation lay over Madhya Maharashtra and neighbourhood.
Strong northwesterly to westerly winds are prevailing over the Indo-Gangetic plains. The northwesterly component is what brings in the `chill factor' into focus over the region.
The IMD said that minimum temperatures are likely to fall by 1 to 2 degree Celsius over northwest India and by 2 to 4 degree Celsius over central and adjoining east India during the next three days.
The season has been normal or above normal over the southern peninsula (except coastal Andhra Pradesh with a 27 per cent deficit), west-central, central, north and east India.
IN DEFICIT STILL
The northwest continued to disappoint, especially the bread baskets of Punjab and Haryana. But the entire Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Maharashtra returned gains in excess of the usual.
Chhattisgarh (22 per cent); Gangetic West Bengal (35 per cent) and Arunachal Pradesh (29 per cent) too have run up varying deficits during this period.
Leading international models had suggested that November would likely see northwest India being left in the lurch while peninsular India would make the most gains.
The India Meteorological Department's (IMD) rainfall maps showed the `gateways' in the northwest - Punjab, Haryana, west Rajasthan and Saurashtra-Kutch - reporting scanty rainfall.
But model predictions favour comparatively better times going further into the winter for these regions.
They get their seasonal rains from western disturbances of significant magnitude with embedded cyclonic whirls.
Most of the rains generated during the season until now have fallen eastward from Uttarkhand, west Uttar Pradesh, east Rajasthan and Gujarat.
Some qualitative change to the scenario was discernible only during the latest week (ending Wednesday) when west Rajasthan alone posted scanty rainfall and Saurashtra-Kutch, deficient - the rest of the country had excess rainfall.
MORE RAINS
Meanwhile, the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) saw more rain being generated over Sri Lanka and along the Tamil Nadu coast during November 19 to 26.
The entire southeast and southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining East Indian Ocean, a `hotspot' for quite sometime now, will continue to set up weather for the southern peninsula during this phase.
The realised rains are expected to be normal over Tamil Nadu but in excess over the west coast, especially around coastal Karnataka, according to the NCEP outlook.
The following week (November 27 to December 5) is forecast to see a fresh wave of rains approach the Tamil Nadu coast from the east and the southeast.
The European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) too, agrees and picked successive cyclonic circulations patrolling the southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal from Sunday to Tuesday.
A broad area of lower pressure may get thrown up covering the south Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal around midweek next week. This should trigger a conventional `low' in the region the next day or the day after.
This could well be the causative feature of the rains that the NCEP sees falling over India's southeast coast and adjoining Sri Lanka during the next week and possibly into early December.
VIGORUS MONSOON
An update from the Regional Met Centre, Chennai, said that the northeast monsoon has been vigorous over south coastal Andhra Pradesh during the 24 hours ending Thursday morning.
Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Lakshadweep, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.
The cyclonic circulation over south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala persisted on Thursday. But the trough from south Konkan coast to Chhattisgarh that emptied rains over central and east-central India during the past few days has weakened.
REMNANT WHIRL
It has, however, left behind a cyclonic circulation over south Chhattisgarh and adjoining coastal Andhra Pradesh. Another cyclonic circulation lay over Madhya Maharashtra and neighbourhood.
Strong northwesterly to westerly winds are prevailing over the Indo-Gangetic plains. The northwesterly component is what brings in the `chill factor' into focus over the region.
The IMD said that minimum temperatures are likely to fall by 1 to 2 degree Celsius over northwest India and by 2 to 4 degree Celsius over central and adjoining east India during the next three days.
Satellite shows:: Heavy showers over south-Tamilnadu, Gulf of Mannar, south Kerala, and coastal Karnataka .. http://ping.fm/JnOrF
Latest COLA - GFS: still holds to the Cyclone prediction by Monday .. http://yfrog.com/3n6wup .. it predicts it even more severe now.
Satellite shows.. Moisture push from Bay continues and Expect heavy intermittent showers from tomorrow .. http://yfrog.com/auvsxj
Here are some useful TECHNICAL comments for our weather updates .. http://is.gd/4Zolk .. Contact us thru weatherblog(at)gmail.com for Authoring.
Some useful TECHNICAL comments for our weather updates
Anonymous has left a new comment on your post "Yesterday's moisture push from South-east Bay is s...":
Yesterday [18.11.2009/WEDNESDAY-In CHENNAI]it was given to infer that a sea level high pressure in the WC bay veered with height. This veering wind helped transport moisture in SOUTH-North horizontal plane. This is referred to as 'WARM AIR ADVECTION" This enabled quick cumulus built up in SOUTH-NORTH horizontal plain along 77 to 78 Deg Longitude. Thus it rained heavily from USILAMPATTI, Periyakulam, to Hyderabad. However today [19.11.2009/THURSDAY] WAA moved towards further west.
---------------------------
Anonymous has left a new comment on your post "Chennai - ALERT:: Watch out for a LOCAL heavy show...":
During early morning in Chennai from Beach SRly sub urban station to Chetpet SRLY sub urban station there was rain for atleast 10 min.[Today, the 20 Nov 2009]
The Quciscat sea wind shows winds converging at 10 Degree North Latitude i.e SE of Nagapatinam.
Towering cumulus in NE sector is visible.
The High pressure [1050 hPa] slides through Thai and Easterlies are filled in the Bay East of 80 Deg East. {Refer Thai Meteorological Department analysis]
The low pressure as usual lies beneath Cape Comorin and adjoining SW Bay.
Easterlies generating wave like patterns and give rain to TN coast soon.
---------------------------
Anonymous has left a new comment on your post "Whole of India is moving into a DRY MJO phase from...":
Though SW monsoon is a giant wind [reversal] phenomenon where the winds originate from SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN in Southern Hemisphere, crosses the Equator, then turns to west and blows the western side of INDIA. Most of the Asian countries are benefited by this summer monsoon rainfall.
On contrary, NE monsoon winds emanate from high pressure area over land and winds emanating from this high passes through Bay of Bengal and moisture intake is comparatively less.
Tamilnadu, Coastal AP, Kerala is benefited mostly by this NEM.
---------------------------
Thanks for those great comments.
If any one needs to have AUTHOR rights to "Indian Weatherman" website (www.indianweatherman.com).
Please contact us thru weatherblog@gmail.com
Yesterday [18.11.2009/WEDNESDAY-In CHENNAI]it was given to infer that a sea level high pressure in the WC bay veered with height. This veering wind helped transport moisture in SOUTH-North horizontal plane. This is referred to as 'WARM AIR ADVECTION" This enabled quick cumulus built up in SOUTH-NORTH horizontal plain along 77 to 78 Deg Longitude. Thus it rained heavily from USILAMPATTI, Periyakulam, to Hyderabad. However today [19.11.2009/THURSDAY] WAA moved towards further west.
---------------------------
Anonymous has left a new comment on your post "Chennai - ALERT:: Watch out for a LOCAL heavy show...":
During early morning in Chennai from Beach SRly sub urban station to Chetpet SRLY sub urban station there was rain for atleast 10 min.[Today, the 20 Nov 2009]
The Quciscat sea wind shows winds converging at 10 Degree North Latitude i.e SE of Nagapatinam.
Towering cumulus in NE sector is visible.
The High pressure [1050 hPa] slides through Thai and Easterlies are filled in the Bay East of 80 Deg East. {Refer Thai Meteorological Department analysis]
The low pressure as usual lies beneath Cape Comorin and adjoining SW Bay.
Easterlies generating wave like patterns and give rain to TN coast soon.
---------------------------
Anonymous has left a new comment on your post "Whole of India is moving into a DRY MJO phase from...":
Though SW monsoon is a giant wind [reversal] phenomenon where the winds originate from SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN in Southern Hemisphere, crosses the Equator, then turns to west and blows the western side of INDIA. Most of the Asian countries are benefited by this summer monsoon rainfall.
On contrary, NE monsoon winds emanate from high pressure area over land and winds emanating from this high passes through Bay of Bengal and moisture intake is comparatively less.
Tamilnadu, Coastal AP, Kerala is benefited mostly by this NEM.
---------------------------
Thanks for those great comments.
If any one needs to have AUTHOR rights to "Indian Weatherman" website (www.indianweatherman.com).
Please contact us thru weatherblog@gmail.com
Whole of India is moving into a DRY MJO phase from Today.. http://yfrog.com/376trg .typically this phase will not support Cyclone formation
Satellite shows, Another heavy weather front from Bay is in striking distance from TN coast .. http://ping.fm/O8r2f
Thursday, November 19, 2009
WARNING:: chennai , VERY heavy showers forecast from 23-Nov-09 .. http://yfrog.com/3n4bbp .. we'll keep it posted.
WARNING:: Chennai, North, delta TN coast and South-TN-Tip can expect 3 VERY WET DAYs from 24-Nov.. http://yfrog.com/3n4bbp
Yesterday's moisture push from South-east Bay is seen nearing TN and Srilanka coast in quick time .. http://yfrog.com/auumjj
Peninsular rains may last another week
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall has been reported from parts of peninsular, east and northeast India as the moisture pipeline from the nearby seas sustained during the past 24 hours ending Wednesday morning.
A trough ran north-east from south Konkan coast to Chhattisgarh across Vidarbha with an embedded cyclonic circulation over Chhattisgarh. The cyclonic circulation over south Konkan and Goa also has got embedded into this formation.
This is what has been driving the west session over peninsular, central and east-central India. On Tuesday, it just got extended into the northeast.
CYCLONIC WHIRLS
Towards the south, a cyclonic circulation has popped up over south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala. International models traced another cyclonic circulation over southwest Bay of Bengal as well.
This is seen as a precursor to the anticipated easterly wave towards Sri Lanka and southeast Tamil Nadu over the next two days.
The wet phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave that oversaw heavy rains over the peninsula, including the formation of Cyclone Phyan, may be exiting but a remnant is still active over the East Indian Ocean.
The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services sees the alternate dry phase of the MJO wave kicking in over southwest Indian Ocean during November 17 to 23.
This should normally dry up the southern Indian peninsula during the last week of the month, but international models see lingering moisture over land falling as rain in the interim.
A few models also saw the possibility of a remnant of the wet MJO wave to the extreme northwest of the Maritime Continent (Indonesia) triggering some activity over south-central and adjoining central Bay of Bengal. Coastal Tamil Nadu may receive some rains in the bargain, the outlook said.
Leading MJO trackers are of the view that equatorial Indian Ocean will get to see the next wet phase, though comparably weaker, from mid-December onwards.
RAINS FORECAST
An update from the Chennai Met Centre said that the 24 hours ending Wednesday morning saw rainfall occur at many places over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
A few places over Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, coastal, north and south interior Karnataka, and Kerala too, received rainfall of varying amounts.
Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at many places over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and north interior Karnataka.
Thundershowers have been forecast at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Lakshadweep, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, coastal and south interior Karnataka.
Outlook from the IMD said that scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely over the North-East during the next two days and decrease thereafter.
Scattered rainfall has been forecast over peninsular India during the next three days. Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over east India.
Maximum temperatures are likely to increase by 3 to 4 degree Celsius over central and over plains of northwest India during the next four days. Minimum temperatures may fall during this period.
Moderate fog conditions are likely to prevail over plains of northwest India. A fresh western disturbance is likely to affect the western Himalayan region on Monday.
A trough ran north-east from south Konkan coast to Chhattisgarh across Vidarbha with an embedded cyclonic circulation over Chhattisgarh. The cyclonic circulation over south Konkan and Goa also has got embedded into this formation.
This is what has been driving the west session over peninsular, central and east-central India. On Tuesday, it just got extended into the northeast.
CYCLONIC WHIRLS
Towards the south, a cyclonic circulation has popped up over south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala. International models traced another cyclonic circulation over southwest Bay of Bengal as well.
This is seen as a precursor to the anticipated easterly wave towards Sri Lanka and southeast Tamil Nadu over the next two days.
The wet phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave that oversaw heavy rains over the peninsula, including the formation of Cyclone Phyan, may be exiting but a remnant is still active over the East Indian Ocean.
The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services sees the alternate dry phase of the MJO wave kicking in over southwest Indian Ocean during November 17 to 23.
This should normally dry up the southern Indian peninsula during the last week of the month, but international models see lingering moisture over land falling as rain in the interim.
A few models also saw the possibility of a remnant of the wet MJO wave to the extreme northwest of the Maritime Continent (Indonesia) triggering some activity over south-central and adjoining central Bay of Bengal. Coastal Tamil Nadu may receive some rains in the bargain, the outlook said.
Leading MJO trackers are of the view that equatorial Indian Ocean will get to see the next wet phase, though comparably weaker, from mid-December onwards.
RAINS FORECAST
An update from the Chennai Met Centre said that the 24 hours ending Wednesday morning saw rainfall occur at many places over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
A few places over Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, coastal, north and south interior Karnataka, and Kerala too, received rainfall of varying amounts.
Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at many places over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and north interior Karnataka.
Thundershowers have been forecast at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Lakshadweep, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, coastal and south interior Karnataka.
Outlook from the IMD said that scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely over the North-East during the next two days and decrease thereafter.
Scattered rainfall has been forecast over peninsular India during the next three days. Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over east India.
Maximum temperatures are likely to increase by 3 to 4 degree Celsius over central and over plains of northwest India during the next four days. Minimum temperatures may fall during this period.
Moderate fog conditions are likely to prevail over plains of northwest India. A fresh western disturbance is likely to affect the western Himalayan region on Monday.
East-bound rain belt continues in central parts
Widespread to fairly widespread rainfall has been reported from Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, interior Maharashtra and West Bengal during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning.
OVERNIGHT RAINS
This came about as westerly and southwesterly winds blowing in from the Arabian Sea acted in tandem with a prevailing western disturbance to empty their baggage of moisture over the region.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said that most places in south interior Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra, east and west Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal witnessed overnight rainfall.
Scattered rainfall has been reported also from the west coast, Tamil Nadu, east Uttar Pradesh, the Northeastern States and Jammu and Kashmir.
The rain belt is forecast to progress to further east and northeast during the next few days, according to the IMD. The moisture supply would be intact as a helpful trough extended from south Konkan into Chhattisgarh across south Madhya Pradesh on Tuesday.
The IMD outlook until Friday spoke about the possibility of scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over central India during the next 24 hours and over east India during the next two days. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity has been forecast for the Northeastern States during the next three days.
In this manner, the IMD sees rains to linger over south interior Karnataka, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and the entire Northeastern States over the next few days.
This is in agreement with the outlook of most international weather models, including the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services.
IMD satellite cloud showed convective clouds over parts of Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh on Tuesday.
A warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh.
Meanwhile, an update from the Chennai Met Centre said that rainfall occurred at many places over Karnataka and at a few places over Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning. Isolated rainfall occurred over Kerala, Lakshadweep and Telangana.
Outlook until Thursday said that rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Karnataka and at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andhra Pradesh.
A keen watch is now being maintained for an easterly wave that is expected to start impacting Sri Lanka and southern peninsular India in the immediate vicinity from this weekend.
This is because the sea-surface temperatures in the southwest Bay of Bengal and around Sri Lanka have cooled down over the past few days to between 26.7 deg Celsius and 28 deg Celsius which can barely support weather systems for long.
The warmest waters now lie along the Kerala coast, northwest and adjoining central and south-central Bay of Bengal as well as a little further south of Sri Lanka, extending to the west of the Maritime Continent (along the Indonesian coast).
Most international models see the wave setting up some activity around Sri Lanka coast and across into southeast Tamil Nadu coast and adjoining south Kerala.
The system may die out after encountering land features over Sri Lanka and emerging weakened into southeast Arabian Sea. Rain gains are indicated for Sri Lanka and southeast and southwest peninsular India.
The odd model guidance favours a scenario where the system seeks warmer waters to the north i.e. over south-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal waters. It could also undergo a round of intensification in the Bay basin.
An IMD update said that on Tuesday, maximum temperatures were below normal over west Madhya Pradesh, north Madhya Maharashtra, east Uttar Pradesh, Konkan, Goa coast, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, and Bihar by varying margins.
They were above normal over coastal areas of Orissa and north Andhra Pradesh, interior Karnataka, remaining parts of Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal.
Moderate fog conditions are likely to continue over the plains of northwest India during the next three days, the IMD update said.
OVERNIGHT RAINS
This came about as westerly and southwesterly winds blowing in from the Arabian Sea acted in tandem with a prevailing western disturbance to empty their baggage of moisture over the region.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said that most places in south interior Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra, east and west Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal witnessed overnight rainfall.
Scattered rainfall has been reported also from the west coast, Tamil Nadu, east Uttar Pradesh, the Northeastern States and Jammu and Kashmir.
The rain belt is forecast to progress to further east and northeast during the next few days, according to the IMD. The moisture supply would be intact as a helpful trough extended from south Konkan into Chhattisgarh across south Madhya Pradesh on Tuesday.
The IMD outlook until Friday spoke about the possibility of scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over central India during the next 24 hours and over east India during the next two days. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity has been forecast for the Northeastern States during the next three days.
In this manner, the IMD sees rains to linger over south interior Karnataka, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and the entire Northeastern States over the next few days.
This is in agreement with the outlook of most international weather models, including the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services.
IMD satellite cloud showed convective clouds over parts of Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh on Tuesday.
A warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh.
Meanwhile, an update from the Chennai Met Centre said that rainfall occurred at many places over Karnataka and at a few places over Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning. Isolated rainfall occurred over Kerala, Lakshadweep and Telangana.
Outlook until Thursday said that rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Karnataka and at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andhra Pradesh.
A keen watch is now being maintained for an easterly wave that is expected to start impacting Sri Lanka and southern peninsular India in the immediate vicinity from this weekend.
This is because the sea-surface temperatures in the southwest Bay of Bengal and around Sri Lanka have cooled down over the past few days to between 26.7 deg Celsius and 28 deg Celsius which can barely support weather systems for long.
The warmest waters now lie along the Kerala coast, northwest and adjoining central and south-central Bay of Bengal as well as a little further south of Sri Lanka, extending to the west of the Maritime Continent (along the Indonesian coast).
Most international models see the wave setting up some activity around Sri Lanka coast and across into southeast Tamil Nadu coast and adjoining south Kerala.
The system may die out after encountering land features over Sri Lanka and emerging weakened into southeast Arabian Sea. Rain gains are indicated for Sri Lanka and southeast and southwest peninsular India.
The odd model guidance favours a scenario where the system seeks warmer waters to the north i.e. over south-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal waters. It could also undergo a round of intensification in the Bay basin.
An IMD update said that on Tuesday, maximum temperatures were below normal over west Madhya Pradesh, north Madhya Maharashtra, east Uttar Pradesh, Konkan, Goa coast, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, and Bihar by varying margins.
They were above normal over coastal areas of Orissa and north Andhra Pradesh, interior Karnataka, remaining parts of Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal.
Moderate fog conditions are likely to continue over the plains of northwest India during the next three days, the IMD update said.
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