Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall has been reported from parts of peninsular, east and northeast India as the moisture pipeline from the nearby seas sustained during the past 24 hours ending Wednesday morning.
A trough ran north-east from south Konkan coast to Chhattisgarh across Vidarbha with an embedded cyclonic circulation over Chhattisgarh. The cyclonic circulation over south Konkan and Goa also has got embedded into this formation.
This is what has been driving the west session over peninsular, central and east-central India. On Tuesday, it just got extended into the northeast.
CYCLONIC WHIRLS
Towards the south, a cyclonic circulation has popped up over south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala. International models traced another cyclonic circulation over southwest Bay of Bengal as well.
This is seen as a precursor to the anticipated easterly wave towards Sri Lanka and southeast Tamil Nadu over the next two days.
The wet phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave that oversaw heavy rains over the peninsula, including the formation of Cyclone Phyan, may be exiting but a remnant is still active over the East Indian Ocean.
The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services sees the alternate dry phase of the MJO wave kicking in over southwest Indian Ocean during November 17 to 23.
This should normally dry up the southern Indian peninsula during the last week of the month, but international models see lingering moisture over land falling as rain in the interim.
A few models also saw the possibility of a remnant of the wet MJO wave to the extreme northwest of the Maritime Continent (Indonesia) triggering some activity over south-central and adjoining central Bay of Bengal. Coastal Tamil Nadu may receive some rains in the bargain, the outlook said.
Leading MJO trackers are of the view that equatorial Indian Ocean will get to see the next wet phase, though comparably weaker, from mid-December onwards.
RAINS FORECAST
An update from the Chennai Met Centre said that the 24 hours ending Wednesday morning saw rainfall occur at many places over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
A few places over Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, coastal, north and south interior Karnataka, and Kerala too, received rainfall of varying amounts.
Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at many places over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and north interior Karnataka.
Thundershowers have been forecast at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Lakshadweep, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, coastal and south interior Karnataka.
Outlook from the IMD said that scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely over the North-East during the next two days and decrease thereafter.
Scattered rainfall has been forecast over peninsular India during the next three days. Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over east India.
Maximum temperatures are likely to increase by 3 to 4 degree Celsius over central and over plains of northwest India during the next four days. Minimum temperatures may fall during this period.
Moderate fog conditions are likely to prevail over plains of northwest India. A fresh western disturbance is likely to affect the western Himalayan region on Monday.
No comments:
Post a Comment