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031500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 59.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS ACCELERATED AND TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT- WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF OMAN (GOO). THE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN GOOD ALTHOUGH WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED AS EVIDENCED BY THE ELONGATION. THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A 20-NM RAGGED EYE, ENHANCING THE CURRENT POSITION FIX CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM DEMS. KNES, AND PGTW RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T6.0. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 03A IS NOW ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, A PRELUDE TO A NORTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE. IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH NORTHERLY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AS IT APPROACHES OMAN. THE WEAKENING WILL BE ENHANCED AS TC 03A SKIRTS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF OMAN AND WITH INCREASING VWS. PHET WILL THEN CROSS THE MOUTH OF GOO EASTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, THEN DISSIPATE INLAND BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO, HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE PACKAGE INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, EGRR, AND WBAR CALLS FOR A SHARP NORTHWEST DEFLECTION DURING THE FIRST 12-36 HOURS BEFORE THE RECURVATURE - A POSSIBLE INDICATION THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AN EARLY RECURVE. RECENT STORM MOTION AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ANIMATION BOLSTER AN EARLY RECURVE SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 30 FEET.
JTWC path
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IMD warning
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ARB 02/2010/23 Dated: 03.06.2010
Time of issue: 1730 hours IST
Sub: Very severe cyclonic storm, ‘PHET’ over westcentral Arabian Sea .
The very severe cyclonic storm, “PHET” over westcentral Arabian Sea moved northward and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, 3rd June 2010 near latitude 19.50N and long. 59.50E, about 1050 km west-southwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat), 1000 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan), 350 km south-southeast of Sur (Oman) and 120 km south-southeast of Masirah island (Oman).
Available observations and numerical weather prediction models guidance suggest that the system would move slowly in a north-northwesterly/northerly direction and cross Oman Pakistan
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given below:
Date/Time(IST) | Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E) | Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph) |
03-06-2010/1430 | 19.5/59.5 | 120-130 gusting to 140 |
03-06-2010/1730 | 19.5/59.5 | 120-130 gusting to 140 |
03-06-2010/2330 | 20.0/59.5 | 110-120 gusting to 130 |
04-06-2010/0530 | 20.5/59.0 | 110-120 gusting to 130 |
04-06-2010/1130 | 21.0/59.0 | 110-120 gusting to 130 |
04-06-2010/2330 | 22.0/59.0 | 100-110 gusting to 120 |
05-06-2010/1130 | 23.0/59.5 | 90-100 gusting to 110 |
05-06-.2010/2330 | 24.0/61.5 | 80-90 gusting to 110 |
06-06-.2010/1130 | 24.5/63.5 | 70-80 gusting to 90 |
Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls would occur over Saurashtra & Kutch during next 48 hrs. Squally winds with speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting 60 kmph would occur along and off Gujarat coast during same period. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Gujarat coast and adjoining north Arabian Sea . Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off this coast.
Satellite shot at 7pm IST
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