Cyclone "03 A - Phet"... Update # 11 ... Touched Oman and slightly moved N-N-W

JTWC warning
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030900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 59.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH
OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM
HAS REGAINED A 20-NM RAGGED EYE THAT APPEARED TO WOBBLE AS THE TC
UNDERWENT A POSSIBLE EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND SUPPORTED BY A 030436Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM DEMS. KNES, AND PGTW RANGING FROM T5.5 TO T6.5. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 03A IS APPROACHING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AXIS TO
THE NORTH, JUST SOUTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF
OMAN (GOO), IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
QUADRANTS AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH NORTHERLY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM
THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AS IT APPROACHES OMAN. THE WEAKENING WILL BE
ENHANCED AS TC 03A DRAGS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF OMAN AND WITH
INCREASING VWS. PHET WILL THEN CROSS THE MOUTH OF GOO EASTWARD AND
MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, THEN DISSIPATE INLAND
BY TAU 120. THIS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR AN EARLIER RECURVATURE IN RESPONSE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO WITH NOGAPS AND GFS TO THE LEFT OF THE
ENVELOPE AND ECMWF AND EGRR TO THE RIGHT. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN
THE MIDDLE, JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 30 FEET.

JTWC projected path
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Satellite shot
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Satellite shot at 3pm IST shows some part of Cyclone Phet is over Oman and signs of weakening.