Cyclone "03 A - Phet"... Update # 10 ... within striking distance. Oman

JTWC warning
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030300Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 59.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH
OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRUCTURE OF
THE CENTRAL AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH THE CURRENT
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM PGTW AT 5.5/6.5. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TRACK SPEED, BUT REMAINS ON A
CONSISTENT TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM MASIRAH
INDICATE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH
THE SYSTEM APPROXIMATELY 115 NM AWAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN ON
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TC 03A, WITH CONTINUED SUPPORT FROM THE SOUTH-
WEST MONSOONAL FLOW. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT
DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC
03A. THE DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE INTENSITY VALUES
TO REMAIN ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
WEAKENING WILL BE ENHANCED AS TC 03A MOVES OVER LAND, INCREASING DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE TRACK FOR PHET IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A NORTH-
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF PHET REMAINS IN PLACE. A TRANSITORY MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STR ALLOWING TC 03A TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE STR. TC 03A WILL TRACK MORE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS TC 03A BEGINS TO HAVE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE FLOW. INTENSITY WILL REMAIN LOW AS IT CROSSES OVER WATER
INTO PAKISTAN, BUT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY TAU 120 OVER LAND.
THE TRACK SPEEDS FOR TC 03A HAVE BEEN DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOWER TRANSITION TO THE
MID-LATITUDES. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAIL-
ABLE MODEL AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 28
FEET.

JTWC projected path
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Satellite shot at 0300Z
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