"07B" - Brushing the Southern Tip

Yesterday(7-Dec-08) early morning 07B was over srilanka.
Around afternoon it crossed into Gulf of Mannar.
Now (8-Dec-08, 11:21 AM) it's over southern tip of India/Tamilnadu.
"07B" is just a LOW pressure system, with lots of RAIN potential.
The whole of southern districts are getting heavy rains and drizzles.
We are hearing news from Kanyakumari district that from yesterday evening it was drizlling heavy went on thru the night and now it's pouring intermittently.
Going by latest satellite pic u can make the position of "07B".

This rainfall in that region will go on till tomorrow morning.
After that the "07B" will cross into Arabian sea. We'll monitor what happens next.
Here is some rainfall details recorded (by IMD) at 8:30AM, 7-Dec-08
Rameswaram 5, Pamban 3, Ramanathapuram 2 and Vedaranyam and Tondi 1
Chennai:
Here we had a mild night with some low clouds.
Morning there was NO dew around.
Now(11:27AM) we can see lot's of partly-heavy cloud formation.
It seems the North-easter has rejunuvated.
We have 50% chance of getting mild shower or two in late evening.
IS THERE ANY OTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN "BAY" ??

"07B" - Dissipating

At last COLA GFS model has proved right, not the BBC forecast system.
Latest satellite pic shows that "07B" is dissipating fast over northern Srilanka.
"07B" before making landfall over Srilanka was just a LOW pressure system.
Cloud cover can be seen over Northern Gulf of Mannar, Northern Srilanka and South-south-Tamilnadu.

Latest 48 hrs numeric model shows more rains for Gulf of Mannar coast.

Already showers has started along Kanyakumari, Tiruchendur, Tuticorin, Rameswaram and in some parts north to Rameswaram Coast.
This might continue for another 48 hrs.
Chennai:
We are not going to get any rain from this system. Almost 5% chance.
From today evening, night temperatures will go down. And Dry.

FNMOC GFS and BBC forecast

FNMOC GFS and BBC forecast is forecasting the same landfall area.

"07B" - Is it alive??

BBC rain forecast is still suggesting a landfall very near to south of Chennai by tomorrow.
Before going in-depth abt the system. Take a look at the latest satellite pic.

Going by visual, one can see a small core and nothing much. Lots of signs of weakening.
Still it's a well marked low pressure system.
JTWC - is still tracking the system and suggesting a landfall near north of Pamban coast.

*************************************
060300Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 85.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 052355Z SSMIS MICRO-
WAVE IMAGE SHOW REENERGIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE WEST OF A WELL-
DEFINED ALBEIT PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF DECREA-
SING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH HAS BEGUN TO BUILD WESTWARD AND IS CAUSING TC 07B TO TRACK ON
A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION. THE DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
ALLOW 07B TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO SOUTH-
ERN INDIA BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z
*************************************
Chennai:
Woke up to a mild morning will some useless low clouds moving in from North-east.
Till evening today(6-Dec-08) no rain is forecasted.
If "07B" maintains it's path and intensifies then we'll start receiving mild showers or drizzles from late evening.
There's only "50%" chance of Intensifying further and making a landfall.

"07B" - latest from JTWC...

Look at the latest JTWC tracking and projection.
It's ominous signs for Tamilnadu. This depression is not going to weaken. Getting even bigger.

Chennai, is still dry with some useless low clouds, and it might change from tomorrow afternoon if the 07B gets a name (That means it's a recognized cyclone) and continue to move in a North-west direction.

"07B" - Tracking west-north-west

Yesterday night it seemed like 07B is going to dissipate in open waters.
Now (8:55 AM) the satellite pic shows a huge cloud mass has gathered around it's center. Still 07B is no way a Cyclone, just a Depression in the making.
Here is latest satellite pic ...

Take a look at this BBC- rainfall forecast for Sunday, surprisingly it shows heavy rainfall around North-Tamilnadu. And according to JTWC tracking, 07B will make a initial landfall around north-east srilanka and then crash into Tamilnadu.

JTWC tracking:

And summary from JTWC:
*************************************
REMARKS:050300Z POSITION NEAR 7.8N 88.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 88.8E APPROXIMATELY
595 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
050030Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE WEST OF
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVER CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 07B REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTH-
WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WILL MINIMIZE THE DEVELOPMENT OF TC 07B
AND KEEP ITS SLOW FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO SRI LANKA AFTER TAU 60 AND WEAKEN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z
**************************************************

Now it's name as "07B"

The cyclone we were projecting for the past 1 week after "Nisha".
Now JTWC has labeled it as "07B"... soon it'll be named as
"Bijli" or "Bandu"
Take a look at the latest satellite pic and JTWC tracking.


At last we have the perfect visual of the upcoming weather system.
Going by satellite pic, Now the current position of the cyclone is East of Srilanka.
The natural movement will be North-west.
But the JTWC is tracking it towards Srilanka East coast and then brushing the southern Tip of Tamilnadu.
By today late evening we'll have a clear picture of where it's moving? and whether it's going to intensify or not??
Still the system has lots of SEA ahead.
Regarding cyclone threat for North-Tamilnadu, keep ur fingers crossed. Wait for another 24 hrs and we'll see a clear picture.
I got a tip from Jim's blog (accuweather.com).. that the present MJO condition is not that great for a Cyclone.
MJO:

Threat of Cyclone - lowered

The immediate threat of Cyclone to North-Tamilnadu coast has been lowered.
Take a look at the latest GFS for 7-Dec-08.

Moreover going by latest satellite pic, there is also no visual of significant Cloud formations over south-east Bay.

Still we can see clouds hanging over south-east Bay...
A LOW pressure system might hit northern Srilanka and some parts of Southern Tamilnadu around 7th or 8th of December.
Keep your fingers crossed. Wait & watch for another 48hrs.

Track of "Nisha"

For the upcoming Cyclone/Depression... i'll video cover the EVENT by myself.

All Models show "Depression will hit us on 6-Dec"

Here u can see 3 numeric models. All showing the same thing "Depression/Cyclone to hit us (north tamilnadu) on or after 6-Dec-08".




But the latest satellite pic shows LESS sign of that. We'll continue to follow this
projected system. We might see a visible PIC of the system from tomorrow.
JTWC is not following at this point of time, but they have issued warnings.
*********************************************************
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.0N 92.8E
HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, APPROXIMATELY
810 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 011052Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOW LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION LOOSELY ROTATING AROUND A BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011213Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SHOWED A WEAK,
BROAD LLCC WITH 10-15 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY
DISORGANIZED DESPITE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
*********************************************************
Anyway Chennai get ready for another heavy one.!
We are going to face a nitemare situation, because still the water logging has not receeded from number of Sub-ways in City. Don't we have a proper equipment to pump the water away. This is 3rd world India dreaming about a Super Power.