Now JTWC has labeled it as "07B"... soon it'll be named as
"Bijli" or "Bandu"
Take a look at the latest satellite pic and JTWC tracking.
At last we have the perfect visual of the upcoming weather system.
Going by satellite pic, Now the current position of the cyclone is East of Srilanka.
The natural movement will be North-west.
But the JTWC is tracking it towards Srilanka East coast and then brushing the southern Tip of Tamilnadu.
By today late evening we'll have a clear picture of where it's moving? and whether it's going to intensify or not??
Still the system has lots of SEA ahead.
Regarding cyclone threat for North-Tamilnadu, keep ur fingers crossed. Wait for another 24 hrs and we'll see a clear picture.
I got a tip from Jim's blog (accuweather.com).. that the present MJO condition is not that great for a Cyclone.
MJO:
For the last 6 hrs its movement is north west only slightly though, it ll brush north east of lanka and ll be deflected to indian landmass where nisha struck only if it maintains nw track
ReplyDeleteI dont get it. Joint weather is saying its moving westward and will hit SL by Sunday. But if you follow the latest GFS, its going nowhere. Am I seeing something wrong?
ReplyDeleteLatest gfs says it ll hit north eastern srilanka by 10
ReplyDeleteS agreed latest shows nothing its lingering in bob dont know wat s going on
ReplyDeletekeaweather
ReplyDeleteQ: What numerical models does JTWC use?
A: As of December 2006, the multi-model ensemble called "Consensus-W" was comprised of 11 members: NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, AFWA MM5, NCEP GFS, WBAR, UKMET, JGSM, JTYM, TCLAPS, and ECMWF.
as of now their predictions are following the NOGAPS model
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?dtg=2008120406&area=ngp_tropio
I think whats happenning is, MJO dry phase has taken over again. Never really understood how this works, back and forth. This cyclone will weaken and go away.
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