Here u can see 3 numeric models. All showing the same thing "Depression/Cyclone to hit us (north tamilnadu) on or after 6-Dec-08".
But the latest satellite pic shows LESS sign of that. We'll continue to follow this
projected system. We might see a visible PIC of the system from tomorrow.
JTWC is not following at this point of time, but they have issued warnings.
*********************************************************
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.0N 92.8E
HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, APPROXIMATELY
810 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 011052Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOW LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION LOOSELY ROTATING AROUND A BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011213Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SHOWED A WEAK,
BROAD LLCC WITH 10-15 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY
DISORGANIZED DESPITE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
*********************************************************
Anyway Chennai get ready for another heavy one.!
We are going to face a nitemare situation, because still the water logging has not receeded from number of Sub-ways in City. Don't we have a proper equipment to pump the water away. This is 3rd world India dreaming about a Super Power.
At last st thomas mount subway is cleared today scariest thing is india vs england test is shifted to here from 11th with rain threat looming around around
ReplyDeleteGFS model
ReplyDelete-----------
http://picasaweb.google.com/praddy06/Cyclones#5275137839046733010
NOGAPS model
-------------
http://picasaweb.google.com/praddy06/Cyclones#5275137849172515042
CMC model
----------
http://picasaweb.google.com/praddy06/Cyclones#5275137842466142482
All three model show different paths. ECMWF model is also showing the path of GFS
i think it will be only a Depression or a Deep Depression in two days it will be clear
indian weatherman
ReplyDeleteall the three models u have posted are all same they all show GFS only thing is the are put in different website
Regards
John
Yes, you got it right!
ReplyDeleteFNMOC EFS is different from COLA GFS.
So my first image is different from other two.
Thanks.
Sorry dude i did not see it properly i thought it was GFS my apologies
ReplyDeleteRegards
John
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