90A is 04A - Slowly intensifying ! Now a Depression!

Latest analysis show that 90A has drifted North and has intensified into a Depression now.
Position is 13.46 N , 62.44 E
Pressure is around 1000.3mb

1am, IR shows moderate convective activity around the system

JTWC, GFS and HWRF expects the system to move North, N-W and then to N-E during next 3 days.

JTWC warning at 8:30pm
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TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 471 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND MORE TIGHTLY WRAPPED DESPITE 
BROKEN AND UNORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A RECENT 251356Z SSMIS 
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AS 
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS BASED UPON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH INCREASING 
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED UPON THE 
INCREASING STRUCTURE SEEN SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES AND A 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF THE SAME VALUE FROM KNES. UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS 
PROVIDING LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) 
AND GOOD OUTFLOW. TC 04A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST 
ALONG A LOBE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THIS LOBE OF THE STR IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN AND RETRACT WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE SYSTEM SLOWING AND 
DRIFTING NORTH WHILE A TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH MODIFIES THE STR. 
AFTER TAU 24, THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND THE STR IS 
EXPECTED TO REBUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND DEFLECT THE SYSTEM ON A 
MORE NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER WHICH, ANOTHER TROUGH IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND FORCE THE SYSTEM TO TURN BACK TO 
THE NORTHEAST. A STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72 
AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD 
OUTFLOW AND VWS REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS FROM 
THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO 
ENCOUNTER THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS 
BECOMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK BUT THERE IS 
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING 
ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WHICH 
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 
260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.