Update on Cyclone Jal ... Moved W-N-W very slowly, still cat-1

Position :: 10.6 N , 85.7 E
Wind :: 120 kmph
Pressure :: 974 mb


IMD warning, 2:30pm IST
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Sub:Severe Cyclone ‘JAL’ over Southwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning for North Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh Coasts-Orange Message

            The Severe cyclonic storm, ‘JAL’ moved northwestwards and lay centered at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 6th November 2010, over southwest Bay of Bengal near lat.10.5⁰N and long. 85.0⁰E about 450 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 550 km east-southeast of Chennai and 700 km southeast of Nellore. It would intensify further, move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by 7^th November 2010 night.

Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hours and fairly widespread rain would occur over south coastal Tamilnadu during next 48 hours with isolated heavy to very heavy falls.. Thereafter the intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥25 cm) over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema.

            Gale winds speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph would prevail along and off North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from today night It may increase upto 120-130 kmph gusting to 140 kmph at the time of landfall. Sea conditions will be very rough to high, along and off these coasts becoming phenomenal at the time of landfall.

            Storm surge of about 1-2 metres above the astronomical tide may inundate the low lying areas of Nellore & Prakasam districts of Andhra Pradesh and Tiruvallur, Chennai & Kanchipuram districts at the time of landfall.

Satellite, IR 1pm IST
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JTWC warning 2:30pm IST
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060900Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 85.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (JAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY REVEALS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, DEMS, AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES 
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND OUTFLOW TO THE EAST IS 
LIMITED DUE TO THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, 
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN STRONG. TC JAL IS CURRENTLY 
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO DEEP- LAYER 
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG A 
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05B 
IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR 
CHENNAI, INDIA JUST AFTER TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN BELOW 
WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIA, BUT 
COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS IT RE-EMERGES IN THE NORTHEASTERN ARABIAN SEA 
AFTER TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, 
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS 
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 17 FEET.

JTWC tracking
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Latest NOGAPS model
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NOGAPS model suggests a chennai landfall in another 36 hrs.