Wind :: 120 kmph
Pressure :: 974 mb
Coming closer to chennai as it had moved North-West in past 6 hrs.
JTWC projection predicts that JAL may make landfall over S. Andhra and just North of Chennai on midnight of 7-Nov.
IMD warning, 8:30pm IST
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Sub: Severe Cyclone ‘JAL’ over Southwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning for North Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh Coasts
The Severe cyclonic storm, ‘JAL’ moved northwestwards and lay centered at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 6th November 2010, over southwest Bay of Bengal near lat.11.00N and long. 84.50E about 450 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 500 km southeast of Chennai and 600 km southeast of Nellore. It would intensify further, move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by 7th November 2010 night. Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hours and thereafter the intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥25 cm) over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema. Fairly widespread rain would occur over south coastal Tamilnadu during next 48 hours with isolated heavy to very heavy falls.Gale winds speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph would prevail along and off North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from to night It may increase upto 120-130 kmph gusting to 140 kmph at the time of landfall. Sea conditions will be very rough to high, along and off these coasts becoming phenomenal at the time of landfall. Storm surge of about 1-2 metres above the astronomical tide may inundate the low lying areas of Nellore & Prakasam districts of Andhra pradesh and Tiruvallur, Chennai & Kanchipuram districts of Tamilnadu at the time of landfall.Damage expected:
Extensive damage to thatched roofs and huts. Minor damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.Action suggested:
Total suspension of fishing operations. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors. The system is under constant surveillance and concerned state Govts. are being informed.JTWC warning
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061500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 84.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (JAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, DEMS, AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIMITED OUTFLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC ALTHOUGH, EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN STRONG. TC JAL IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO DEEP- LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05B IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI, INDIA JUST AFTER TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIA, BUT COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS IT RE-EMERGES IN THE NORTHEASTERN ARABIAN SEA AFTER TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 18 FEET.
JTWC tracking and projected path
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Satellite, IR, 8pm IST
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