Wind :: 105 kmph
Pressure :: 982 mb
IMD warning, 2am IST
--------------------------------------
The cyclonic storm, ‘JAL’ over southeast Bay of Bengal moved nothwestward and lay centered at 2330 hrs IST of 5th November 2010, near lat.10.00N and long. 86.50E about 570 km east northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 750 km east-southeast of Chennai and 850 km southeast of Nellore. It would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm. The system would move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by 7th November 2010 night.
Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh from morning of 6th November 2010. The intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥25 cm) over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema from morning of 7th November 2010.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph would commence along and off North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coast from morning of 6th November 2010. It may increase upto 120-130 kmph gusting to 140 kmph at the time of landfall. Sea conditions will be very rough to high, along and off these coasts becoming phenomenal at the time of landfall.
Storm surge of about 1-2 metres above the astronomical tide may inundate the low lying areas of Nellore & Prakasam districts of Andhra pradesh and Tiruvallur, Chennai & Kanchipuram districts at the time of landfall.
JTWC warning, 2:30am IST
----------------------------------------
052100Z POSITION NEAR 9.9N 86.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (JAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051500Z PARTIAL 89 GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WITH INCREASED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 051500Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS. TC JAL IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO- DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, TC 05B WILL MAKE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF CHENNAI, INDIA AND WEAKEN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) BY TAU 72. THERE IS A CHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD RE- INTENSIFY AS IT RE-EMERGES IN THE NORTHEASTERN ARABIAN SEA AFTER TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD AND RE-INTENSIFIES TC 05B IN THE ARABIAN SEA. THIS FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 16 FEET.
JTWC tracking
-------------------------------
Satellite, IR, 2am IST
-----------------------------------
No comments:
Post a Comment