Tuesday, November 30, 2010
6:30pm, Heavy showers lining up along central and S-E Tamilnadu coast.. extreme N. Tamilnadu.. waiting for rains .. http://ow.ly/i/5Xbs
3pm, Easterlies very close to Central Tamilnadu coast... still NO cloud formation above 12th parallel... http://ow.ly/i/5WUx
COLA-GFS suggests heavy showers for N. Tamilnadu coast... while IMD-GFS has predicted mild showers, from 1 to 3-Dec.. http://ow.ly/i/5WJc
Still there's NO cloud formation seen over 12th parallel, so initially the easterlies will affect the central TN coast. http://ow.ly/i/5WIE
12pm, We can see the activity of western front of Easterlies over S-W Bay near Central Tamilnadu coast and N-E Srilanka. http://ow.ly/i/5WIE
The present high pressure will lift from N. Tamilnadu and S. Andhra starting from today, 30-Nov, noon... http://ow.ly/i/5WIs
Monday, November 29, 2010
COLA-GFS predicts a Depression taking shape over S.central Bay on 5-Dec... along with another easterlies .. http://ow.ly/i/5VP4
Due to this upcoming easterlies over S.central Bay... NO cloud activity can be seen above 12th parallel... http://ow.ly/i/5VOd
Easterlies will reach C.coast Tamilnadu in another 24hrs... http://ow.ly/i/5VOd ... Again N.Tamilnadu may not get Heavy showers due to this.
10pm, Almost NO showers thru Tamilnadu today, except for some showers over S.Tip of Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/5VOd
10pm, Western front of Bay Easterlies has now reachd S.central Bay... and moving west and closing in towards C.coast TN. http://ow.ly/i/5VOd
Both IMD-GFS and COLA-GFS predicts that widespread showers will begin for N. Tamilnadu coast from early hrs of 1-Dec.. http://ow.ly/i/5Vmw
Sunday, November 28, 2010
7pm, South and S-E Bay is active again as a new easterlies has started moving West ... http://ow.ly/i/5U3a
IMD-GFS and COLA-GFS predict that an easterly wave will affect central and Chennai , N. Tamilnadu coast from 1-Dec .. http://ow.ly/i/5U3l
7pm, While Heavy showers lash S.Tip and central Tamilnadu... winter like evening for N. Tamilnadu and Andhra.. http://ow.ly/i/5U3a
More waves of heavy rain forecast for N.Tamilnadu coast with another Easterly predicted after 5-Dec... http://ow.ly/i/5U2I
If the present HIGH pressure over C.India weakens then heavy showers predicted for N. Tamilnadu and Chennai 1,2,3-Dec.. http://ow.ly/i/5U1y
Today, still the Low circulation is over Gulf Mannar and S.Tip of Tamilnadu ... More heavy showers reported from there.. http://ow.ly/i/5U0z
Thought it fit to re-produce this very interesting weather fact from Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather:
309,959,570 Lightning Strikes in Six Months:
Vaisala, the original lightning detection company that I have profiled before, sent this map showing nearly 310 million lightning strikes on Earth (specifically 309,959,570, they tell me) in the last six months via their Global Lightning Dataset:
The map looks similar to those from NASA's satellite estimates, but because it's only 6 months of data, it doesn't line up perfectly, and these are ground-based, not satellite sensors.
Saturday, November 27, 2010
IMD - On 26-Nov-2010, Northeast monsoon has been vigorous over Tamil Nadu... Rainfall details ... http://ow.ly/3g9ye
On 26-Nov-2010, Northeast monsoon has been vigorous over Tamil Nadu
Northeast monsoon has been vigorous over Tamil Nadu.
Rainfall occurred at most places over Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep and at a few places over Kerala. Isolated rainfall occurred over Rayalaseema, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka. Dry weather prevailed over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and North Interior Karnataka.
Sirkali (Nagapattinam dt) recorded an extremely heavy rainfall of 26 centimetres.
The following stations recorded very heavy-to-heavy rainfall in centimetres.
Virudhachalam (Cuddalore dt) 23, Sethiyathope (Cuddalore dt) 22, Mayiladuthurai (Nagapattinam dt), Kattumannarkoil and Tozudhur (both Cuddalore dt) 21 each, Cuddalore and Chidambaram (Cuddalore dt) 20 each, Parangipettai and Karaikal 19 each, Tiruvarur 18, Ulundurpet (Villupuram dt), Kollidam and Tarangambadi (both Nagapattinam dt) 17 each, Panruti (Cuddalore dt), Nagapattinam and Jayamkondam (Ariyalur dt) 16 each, Srimushnam (Cuddalore dt), Kallakurichi (Villupuram dt) and Puducherry Airport 15 each, Nannilam and Needamangalam (both Tiruvarur dt) 13 each, Kodavasal (Tiruvarur dt) 12, Gingee (Villupuram dt) 11, Villupuram, Kumbakonam (Thanjavur dt) and Pandavaiyarhead (Tiruvarur dt) 10 each, Sankarapuram and Tirukoilur (both Villupuram dt), Papanasam and Tiruvidaimarudhur (both Thanjavur dt) and Valangaiman (Tiruvarur dt) 9 each, Mannargudi (Tiruvarur dt) and Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari dt) 8 each and Thanjavur, Vallam (Thanjavur dt), Kolachal (Kanyakumari dt), Kanyakumari and Vembavur (Perambalur dt) 7 each.
The other chief amounts of rainfall recorded in Centimetres are:
Nedumangad (Thiruvananthapuram dt), Agathi Airport, Aminidivi, Vanur (Villupuram dt), Adiramapattinam, Orathanadu (Thanjavur dt), Muthupet and Tiruthuraipoondi (both Tiruvarur dt), Mylaudy (Kanyakumari dt), Pappireddipatti (Dharmapuri dt) and Athur (Salem dt) 6 each, Thiruvananthapuram Airport, Cheyyur and Maduranthagam (both Kanchipuram dt), Marakkanam and Tindivanam (both Villupuram dt), Grand Anaicut, Peravurani and Tirukattupalli (all Thanjavur dt), Vedaranyam, Karambakudi (Pudukottai dt), Pamban, Rameswaram (Ramanathapuram dt), Nagerkoil and Thuckalay (both Kanyakumari dt), Sathanur dam (Tiruvannamalai dt), Harur (Dharmapuri dt), Perambalur and Samayapuram (Tiruchirapalli dt) 5 each, Thiruvananthapuram , Minicoy, Madukur, Pattukottai and Tiruvaiyaru (all Thanjavur dt), Boothapandi and Pechipparai (both Kanyakumari dt), Chengam and Vandavasi (both Tiruvannamalai dt), Thammampatti and Vazhapadi (both Salem dt), Ariyalur, Lalgudi and Pullambadi (both Tiruchirapalli dt) 4 each, Kannur, Gandarvakottai (Pudukottai dt), Tondi, Cheyyar (Tiruvannamalai dt), Penugondapuram and Pocahampalli ( both Krishnagiri dt), Krishnagiri, Mangalapuram and Rasipuram (both Namakkal dt), Yercaud, Thuvakudi and Thuraiyur (both Tiruchirapalli dt), Tiruchirapalli and Tiruchirapalli Airport 3 each, Mulki (Dakshina Kannada dt), Thaliparamba (Kannur dt), Aryankavu (Kollam dt), Kavaratti, Chegalpattu and Uthiramerur (both Kanchipuram dt), Pudukottai, Manamelkudi, Alangudi, Arantangi, Keeranur and Perungalur (all Pudukottai dt), Ramanathapuram, Kamuthi, Mudukulathur, Paramakudi and Tiruvadanai (all Ramanathapuram dt), Manimuthar (Tirunelveli dt), Arani and Polur (both Tiruvannamalai dt), Barur and Uthangarai (both Krishnagiri dt), Dharmapuri, Palacode and Pennagaram (both Dharmapuri dt), Salem, Kundha bridge (Nilgiris dt), Chettikulam and Padalur (both Perambalur dt), Musiri (Tiruchirapalli dt), Ilayankudi, Manamadurai and Tiruppuvanam (all Sivagangai dt) 2 each and Ammathy and Bhagamandala (both Kodagu dt), Kozhikode , Kozhikode Airport, Parambikulam (Palakkad dt), Piravom (Ernakulam dt), Mavelikara (Alapuzha dt), Thodupuzha (Idukki dt), Punalur, Neyyatinkara and Varkala (both Thiruvananthapuram dt), DGP office and Anna University (both Chennai dt), Chennai, Mahabalipuram (Kancheepuram dt), Arimalam , Illuppur, Tirumayam and Viralimalai (all Pudukottai dt), Kadaladi and R.S.Mangalam (both Ramanathapuram dt), Nanguneri and Radhapuram (both Tirunelveli dt), Surangudi and Tiruchendur (both Tuticorin dt), Eraniel (Kanyakumari dt), Alangayam, Vaniyambadi and Walajapet (all Vellore dt), Vellore, Anchetty and Rayakottai (both Krishnagiri dt), Hogenekal and Marandahalli (both Dharmapuri dt), Namakkal, Paramathivelur (Namakkal dt), Mettur Dam and Omalur (both Salem dt), Udumalpet (Tiruppur dt), Kadavur, Kuzhithalai, Mayanur, Thogaimalai and Aravakurichi (all Karur dt), Manaparai and Marungapuri (both Tiruchirapalli dt), Chittampatti, Melur , Mettupatti, Periyardam, Sholavandan, Thirumayam, Usilampatti and Vadipatti ( all Madurai dt), Madurai Airport, Peiyakulam, Devakottai, Karaikudi and Tirupathur (all Sivaganga dt), Sivaganga, Aruppukottai, Thiruchuzhi (both Virudhunagar dt), Virudhunagar, Kovilangulam, Chatrapatti , Nilakottai and Vedasandur (all Dindigul dt) 1 each.
Category:
IMD Report,
North East Monsoon,
Tamil Nadu
As the High pressure over central India builds and pushes south, temp. has begun to dip .. Raichur records 15 deg C... http://ow.ly/i/5RVa
Rainfall till 8.30 am from Easterly Wave
(in mm)
Nagapattinam
-----------------
Keelaiyur - 159.0
Mayiladuthurai - 237.0
Nagapattinam - 113.5
Sembanar Koil - 202.0
Thanjavur
-----------------
Aduthurai-143.0
Pattukkottai-46.0
Thanjavur-66.0
Thiruppanandal-150.5
Villupuram
-------------------
Kallakkurichi-188.0
Kanai-114.5
Kandamangalam-139.5
Koliyanur-107.0
Mailam-64.0
Olakkur-71.5
Rishivandiam-82.5
Thiagadurgam-136.0
Thiruvennainallur-116.0
Vallam-60.5
Vanur-89.0
Vikravandi-87.5
Ariyalur
--------------
Andimadam-156.5
Ariyalur-42.0
Jayankondam-126.0
Sendurai-188.0
Cuddalore
-----------------
Cuddalore-200.0
Veeranam-222.0
Komaratchi-156.0
Kurinjipadi-164.5
Kanayakumari
---------------------
Pechiparai-57.0
Perunchani-41
Kurunthancode-62.5
Thackalai-58.5
Thiruvattar-57.0
Thovala-46.5
Puducherry
-----------------
Puducherry-150.0
Karaikal-190.0
Thiruvannamalai
----------------------
Keelpennathur-47.0
Thandrampet-88.0
Sathnaur-49.0
Salem
---------
Gangavalli-73.5
P.N.Palayam-46.5
Valapady-41.0
Nagapattinam
-----------------
Keelaiyur - 159.0
Mayiladuthurai - 237.0
Nagapattinam - 113.5
Sembanar Koil - 202.0
Thanjavur
-----------------
Aduthurai-143.0
Pattukkottai-46.0
Thanjavur-66.0
Thiruppanandal-150.5
Villupuram
-------------------
Kallakkurichi-188.0
Kanai-114.5
Kandamangalam-139.5
Koliyanur-107.0
Mailam-64.0
Olakkur-71.5
Rishivandiam-82.5
Thiagadurgam-136.0
Thiruvennainallur-116.0
Vallam-60.5
Vanur-89.0
Vikravandi-87.5
Ariyalur
--------------
Andimadam-156.5
Ariyalur-42.0
Jayankondam-126.0
Sendurai-188.0
Cuddalore
-----------------
Cuddalore-200.0
Veeranam-222.0
Komaratchi-156.0
Kurinjipadi-164.5
Kanayakumari
---------------------
Pechiparai-57.0
Perunchani-41
Kurunthancode-62.5
Thackalai-58.5
Thiruvattar-57.0
Thovala-46.5
Puducherry
-----------------
Puducherry-150.0
Karaikal-190.0
Thiruvannamalai
----------------------
Keelpennathur-47.0
Thandrampet-88.0
Sathnaur-49.0
Salem
---------
Gangavalli-73.5
P.N.Palayam-46.5
Valapady-41.0
12:30pm, Heavily cloudy and Showers all over Tamilnadu... More showers expected for Central coastal and S.Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/5RCU
COLA-GFS... high pressure from central India pushing south .. will last at least till 30-Nov ... http://ow.ly/i/5RCf
S-W Bay low still persist. it's almost a week now.Today it's over Gulf Mannar, Srilanka and S.Tip Kerala and Tamilnadu. http://ow.ly/i/5RAL
Friday, November 26, 2010
Chennai - More chances than yesterday that Showers will start from midnight or into early hrs of 27-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/5Qd7
6:30pm, Heavy rain engulfing Central and central coastal Tamilnadu ... Will it reach N. Tamilnadu??.. http://ow.ly/i/5Qd7
2:30pm, While we speak abt NO rain for N. Tamilnadu.. heavy showers continue over S and central Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/5PRO
IMD and COLA GFS models still predict heavy showers for N. and C. Tamilnadu coast on 27,28,29-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/5PRv http://ow.ly/i/5PRz
RT @imagesh: Nice pic RT @JoeJayanth: Pic of the Day - http://ping.fm/Y5f11 from http://potofshots.com
A huge high pressure zone over central India is pushing south, it's hindering cloud formation near N. Tamilnadu coast.. http://ow.ly/i/5PFN
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Heavy cloud formation over Bay just E-S-E of Chennai ... in striking distance ... http://ow.ly/i/5OnK
6pm, Showers has moved to N. Tamilnadu coast and Chennai will receive rain in another 6 hrs... http://ow.ly/i/5OnC
Chennai - Showers expected in another 8 hrs as showers slowly creeping North along the coast ... http://ow.ly/i/5O7X
3pm, Heavy showers along Central Tamilnadu coast is slowly creeping up into N. TN coast .. http://ow.ly/i/5O7X
HUNDREDS, EVEN THOUSANDS, OF PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL rain in India this Nov-2010 ... http://ow.ly/3fjvE
Minimum temp are expected to fall by 2-3 degree Celsius over Northwest, West and Central India from Thursday onwards,. http://ow.ly/3fiH7
Chennai - Meteoron Weather service forecast says... showers to start from Midnight today ... http://ow.ly/i/5NUK
Mercury may dip over North and WET IN SOUTH
Minimum temperatures are expected to fall by 2-3 degree Celsius over parts of Northwest, West and Central India from Thursday onwards, says an India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook.
This would happen with a calibrated reduction in cloudiness and resultant non-seasonal rainfall over these areas brought about by rogue systems taking shape and sustaining in the Arabian Sea.
But scattered rain or thundershowers would linger over many parts of West and Northwest for at least another day, the IMD said.
The causative upper air cyclonic circulation persisted over Gujarat and neighbourhood. A trough in lower levels lay extended from this system to Haryana across east Rajasthan.
Haryana, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Gujarat region, West Madhya Pradesh, Konkan, Goa and Madhya Maharashtra are expected to be brought under varying wet spells in this manner on Thursday.
International model outlooks for at least the next two weeks did not indicate the possibility of a return of wet weather to this region, except briefly over the Konkan-Mumbai coast.
WET IN SOUTH
Towards the South, however, fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Kerala, Lakshadweep and Tamil Nadu.
Scattered rain or thundershowers have been forecast Coastal and South Interior Karnataka and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts said that the week ending December 2 is likely to see a trough of low pressure hanging over contiguous Southwest Bay of Bengal, Equatorial Indian Ocean and Southeast Arabian Sea.
The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services attributes this to a strong but short phase of a wet Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave over this region.
The wet and dry phase of the eastward-bound wave that transits the region periodically has commensurate impact over ground-level weather.
The persisting La Nina conditions in the East Equatorial Pacific would also have a say on emerging weather in the region, the CPC assessed.
There is an increasing chance for above-normal precipitation for East Indian Ocean (adjoining South and Southwest Bay of Bengal), Southern Indian Peninsula and the Comorin region, the CPC forecast statement said.
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) sees active conditions developing over the Bay of Bengal during the week ending December 1, with coastal Tamil Nadu and the Peninsular Tip slipping under a wet cover.
Parts of West Madhya Pradesh, Central Peninsula, East and Northeast India could also witness occasional showers during this period, the NCEP said.
The week that follows (December 2 to10) would once again see fairly widespread showers over Coastal Tamil Nadu coast along with Sri Lanka and the Comorin region.
Meanwhile, fairly widespread rainfall occurred over East Rajasthan, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Coastal Karnataka during the last 24 hours ending Wednesday morning, an IMD update said.
Scattered rain bands originating from the Arabian Sea had reached as far northeast as West Uttar Pradesh, the IMD said. Scattered rains were recorded also over Konkan and Goa.
Insat cloud imagery on Wednesday afternoon showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of Tamil Nadu, South Bay of Bengal, Southeast Arabian Sea and the Comorin area.
The upper air cyclonic circulation over Comorin and adjoining areas of Kerala and Lakshadweep, too, persisted.
An IMD weather warning for Thursday and Friday said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep and Kerala.
An extended outlook valid until Monday spoke about the possibility of continued and fairly widespread rainfall over Peninsular India.
Category:
IMD Report,
North East Monsoon,
Winter
Cola-GFS predicts heavy showers for C, N. Tamilnadu coast and S.Tip Tamilnadu on 26-Nov-2010 ... http://ow.ly/i/5NTo
Heavy showers all thru night for S.Tip Tamilnadu and more to come for another 3 days as the Low moves into Gulf Mannar.. http://ow.ly/i/5NSS
10:30am, Heavy Showers due to Easterlies over central Tamilnadu coast from midnight ... http://ow.ly/i/5NSS
Yesterday's S-S-W Bay LOW still persists and moving very slowly, now over S-S-E Srilanka .. http://ow.ly/i/5NSs
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
5:30pm, Gulf of Mannar is very active ... S-W Bay low is active while Easterlies are nearing C and N. Tamilnadu coast.. http://ow.ly/i/5MuE
1:30pm, Heavy showers erupting over S-W Bay (over Bay circulation) and Gulf Mannar .. http://ow.ly/i/5Mcy
The easterlies will reach Central and N. Tamilnadu coast from morning of 25-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/5M7m
Showers are due to start for N and central Tamilnadu coast from 25-Nov... or it may get delayed by 1 Day.. http://ow.ly/i/5M7i
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
5:30pm, Due to S-W Bay low.. showers has started reaching over Central Tamilnadu coast, Gulf Mannar and N-E Srilanka.. http://ow.ly/i/5KJm
FNMOC expects the rains over West and adjoining Central India to linger until Sunday .. http://ow.ly/3e72u
"92A" in has come under the influence of an itinerant western disturbance crossing the Northwest border.. http://ow.ly/3e6ZP
Yesterday, cloud formation around N. Arabian sea LOW "92A" was low... but today, heavy showers over S. Gujarat... http://ow.ly/i/5KoX
WESTERLY DIPS IN
The weather-setting low-pressure area over East-central and adjoining Northeast Arabian Sea has persisted from overnight on Sunday, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.
Widespread rainfall were reported from Tamil Nadu and Kerala during the 24-hours ending Monday morning, an IMD update said.
WESTERLY DIPS IN
The rains were scattered over Lakshadweep, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and Gujarat while being isolated over South Rajasthan, Marathawada and North Interior Karnataka.
Meanwhile, the ‘low' in the Northeast Arabian Sea system has come under the influence of an itinerant western disturbance crossing the Northwest border and dipping south into Northeast Arabian Sea.
The IMD expects westerlies associated with the eastward-bound system to drag the ‘low' north-northeastwards towards Gujarat coast, which is in line with international model outlooks.
On Monday, a trough originating from the ‘low' arched its way across as far north-northeast as into Southeast Rajasthan.
Towards the east, an upper air cyclonic circulation hung over Southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Coastal Tamil Nadu.
The US Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre assessed that a remnant circulation and a likely offshore trough would linger even after the ‘low' has washed over South or Southwest Gujarat.
A weather warning issued by the IMD has spoken about the possibility of isolated heavy rainfall over South Tamil Nadu and Kerala on Tuesday and Wednesday also.
Interaction of excess moisture with the band of cool northwesterlies associated with the western disturbance and day-time warming of land may combine to trigger isolated hailstorms over Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat during this period.
Meanwhile, the FNMOC expected the rains over West and adjoining Central India to linger until Sunday.
An intervening easterly wave is forecast to dump heavy rains over Sri Lanka and adjoining Southeast Tamil Nadu coast by Wednesday.
A remnant of the wave is shown erupting in isolated heavy falls over coastal North Tamil Nadu around Chennai around Friday and later over South Kerala.
An IMD outlook valid until Thursday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Kerala, Lakshadweep, South Tamil Nadu and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Insat cloud imagery showed the presence of convective clouds over parts of North, West and South Peninsular India, South Bay of Bengal, South Andaman Sea and East Arabian Sea.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would also occur over Gujarat, East Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, while it will be scattered over West Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Scattered rain or thundershowers is expected to occur over Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, Konkan and Goa.
The western disturbance and moisture incursion from Arabian Sea is forecast to cause scattered rain or snow over the Western Himalayan region.
This would lead to a rise in minimum temperatures by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over parts of Northwest and Central India during this period.
Extended forecast until Saturday spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread rainfall over South Peninsular India.
Category:
IMD Report,
North East Monsoon
Easterlies will pick strength from 24-Nov and eventually touch central and N. Tamilnadu on 25-Nov, Heavy rain forecast. http://ow.ly/i/5KiF
RT @rajugana: Baroda, 9.30am- Continous overnight showers. Fabulous weather, fully overcast with drizzling a pic http://ow.ly/i/5JYp
Monday, November 22, 2010
6pm, Heavy activity over S.Bay over the circulation and wave of easterlies getting ready to strike Central, N.Tamilnad. http://ow.ly/i/5IO0
6pm, Heavy showers again over Kerela, S-W Karnataka and over S. Tamilnadu and Gulf Mannar.. http://ow.ly/i/5IO0
More rains to push into Gujarat, west Madhya Pradesh
The West Coast, Gujarat and West Madhya Pradesh will join the Southern Peninsula in sharing the spoils of continuing wet conditions, non-seasonal for some, during the rest of November.
Easterly wave action is expected to keep the Tamil Nadu coast busy even as residual circulations from them would cross the peninsula to keep the Arabian Sea also on the boil.
NON-SEASONAL RAIN
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) expects the non-seasonal rains over Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh and the Konkan Coast could go on during the week ending November 28.
Up to 600 per cent above the weekly normal is expected to fall over these places, according to NCEP.
Coastal and Southern Tamil Nadu and adjoining South Kerala and parts of the West Coast will continue to receive rains into the first week of December.
Contrastingly, the NCEP outlook sees below normal rainfall for interior Tamil Nadu during this period.
A six-day outlook for the period until Thursday by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society has assessed the possibility of unusually heavy rains over entire Sri Lanka, adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal and Coastal Tamil Nadu.
ARABIAN SEA ‘LOW'
The IRI also sees the core of rain bands sitting smack over Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh and Sindh in Pakistan being driven by a low-pressure area in East-central Arabian Sea.
The rains would grow in intensity as one proceeds south-to-southwest from West Madhya Pradesh with the heaviest expected to fall over South and Southwest Gujarat.
Meanwhile, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Sunday located the causative low-pressure area lying parked over East-central and adjoining Northeast Arabian Sea on Sunday.
The system may not likely to intensify further, but might move north-northeastwards leading to moisture incursion over Gujarat, Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh and even up to Delhi and South Haryana during the next two to three days.
In fact, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has said that the north-northeast movement (towards Konkan-Gujarat coast) of the system would be masterminded by a concurrent western disturbance from across the country's northwest border and dipping to the south.
It would not be until Tuesday that the system would crawl up to the Saurashtra Coast and drum up the proceedings to a peak, according to the ECMWF.
And, as if on cue, the IMD has kept a lookout for the next easterly wave affecting the South Peninsular Coast India from Tuesday.
This is even as fairly widespread rainfall was reported over South Peninsular India during the 24 hours ending Sunday morning from a preceding wave that hit the Tamil Nadu coast.
It was scattered over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya and Andaman and Nicobar Islands and isolated over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and North Konkan.
The IMD outlook until Wednesday for various Met sub-divisions assessed that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Kerala, Lakshadweep, Tamil Nadu and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
It would be fairly widespread rain or thundershowers over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya on Monday before reducing in intensity thereafter.
Isolated rain or thundershowers would occur over Gujarat and South Rajasthan on Monday and scale up thereafter.
Scattered rain or thundershowers are likely South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, Konkan and Goa.
Category:
IMD Report,
North East Monsoon
Entire coastal Tamilnadu will receive heavy showers starting from evening of 24-Nov to 28-Nov .. http://ow.ly/i/5IAc
Upcoming easterlies will start affecting central and N. Tamilnadu coast from evening of 24-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/5IA3
Present S. Bay low will start to move in N-W direction towards S-E Tamilnadu coast from 25/26-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/5IzX
1:30pm, Heavy cloud activity over the S. Bay low... and showers breaking out over S. Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/5Iv9
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia, Baroda 9.50am, The week starting with fully overcast sky..a pic http://ow.ly/i/5Ifo..
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Present upper level wind direction will steer present Arabian sea Low into S-W. Gujarat .. http://ow.ly/i/5Hml
Present Low circulation over S. Bay will travel West clippin S.tip of tamilnadu on 25-Nov, showers forecast till 27-Nov. http://ow.ly/i/5Hjd
5pm, today also Gulf of Mannar is very Active, and S. tip of Tamilnadu is also having some showers... http://ow.ly/i/5HeS
5pm, Heavy showers along W-N-W Maharastra, S-W coastal Karnataka, central and S. Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/5HeS
Saturday, November 20, 2010
RT @krishashok: http://ping.fm/Y2gmY - The tastiest kind of banana in the known universe-Matti pazham (inspiration for new Airtel logo)
IMD-GFS :: on 24-Nov, Easterly wave over N. TN coast and Low circulation just South of S. tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/5EUe
Update on "92 A" ... an active N. Arabian sea LOW
Position :: 17.5 N , 60 E
wind :: 30 kmph
Pressure :: 1010 mb
Satellite shot
---------------------------
GFS model
---------------------
IMD-GFS model predicts a S-W. Gujarat landfall of the system without much intensification.
Landfall predicted on 22-Nov-2010.
Heavy rain forecast for this region from 22-Nov-2010 to 24-Nov-2010.
wind :: 30 kmph
Pressure :: 1010 mb
Satellite shot
---------------------------
GFS model
---------------------
IMD-GFS model predicts a S-W. Gujarat landfall of the system without much intensification.
Landfall predicted on 22-Nov-2010.
Heavy rain forecast for this region from 22-Nov-2010 to 24-Nov-2010.
Category:
Cyclones,
IMD Report,
India,
North East Monsoon
Widespread rain over TN, Kerala
A weather warning valid for Saturday and Sunday said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over south Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
Widespread rainfall has occurred over Tamil Nadu and Kerala during the 24 hours ending Friday morning ahead of an easterly wave action expected to be triggered along the Tamil Nadu coast from Saturday.
All the same, the freak weather masterminded by the Arabian Sea along the West Coast persisted, with fairly widespread rain being reported over as far as Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
It was scattered over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, South Andhra Pradesh, Coastal Karnataka and Jammu and Kashmir, an update from India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
MERCURY DOWN
Meanwhile, minimum temperatures have fallen by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and East Madhya Pradesh during past 24 hours with some of the clouds clearing off.
However, they still continue to remain above normal by 4 to 6 deg Celsius over these regions, the IMD noted.
On Friday afternoon, Insat cloud imagery showed convective (rain-bearing) clouds driven down south to over parts of extreme South Peninsula, South Bay of Bengal, South Andaman Sea and East-central and Southeast Arabian Sea.
The upper air cyclonic circulation over East-central Arabian Sea persisted, and so did the trough from this system, though truncated and extending up to Gujarat only on Friday. But, the other weather-making trough embedded in the seasonal westerlies across the North-west border had checked in over North-east Rajasthan and neighbourhood.
WEATHER WARNING
A weather warning valid for Saturday and Sunday said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over South Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
Forecast until Monday spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread rain or thundershowers for Kerala, Lakshadweep, Tamil Nadu and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
It will be scattered or in the form of thundershowers over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, Konkan and Goa.
Minimum temperature is expected to fall further by 2 to 4 deg Celsius over many parts of North-west, Central and East India during the next week as colder north-westerlies begin to fill the plains.
Extended forecast until Wednesday said that fairly widespread rains would fall over South Peninsular India while being scattered over Gujarat and adjoining Rajasthan.
LA NINA OUTLOOK
Meanwhile, better model consensus is becoming evident over the tenure of the persisting La Nina event in the East Equatorial Pacific.
The strong La Nina conditions that boosted the Indian monsoon this year will continue at least into early next year, an update from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said. Earlier, a group of Japanese scientists at the Tokyo-based Regional Institute for Global Change had said that the La Nina might last for entire 2011 and even into 2012.
On Friday, the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services said that there is a 25 per cent chance that the La Nina would last into August-September-October 2011, well after the south-west monsoon for the year has ended.
‘Neutral' (neither La Nina nor monsoon-killer El Nino) conditions have been given a 50 per cent chance of sustaining while El Nino itself is being given only 25 per cent, according to the CPC outlook.
Even ‘neutral' conditions are enough to favour the cause of a trouble-free south-west monsoon for India, according to some experts.
Category:
IMD Report,
North East Monsoon,
Tamil Nadu
Friday, November 19, 2010
7pm, Heavy showers along Coastal Kerala and S-W coastal Karnataka, Heavy cloud activity over S-W Bay, E-N-E of srilanka. http://ow.ly/i/5Dk6
More showers for N and Central coastal Tamilnadu from 24-26-Nov bcos of Low circulation along srilanka and easterlies.. http://ow.ly/i/5CQs
Today a weak Low circulation can be seen over S. Bay, S-E of Srilanka.. It's predicted to stay there till 22-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/5CQf
RT @gbnp5000: Rain in Kutch salt pan leaves 5,000 stranded: The recent unseasonal rains have not only hit the farm... http://bit.ly/9LDAOC
Thursday, November 18, 2010
COLA-GFS predicts more heavy showers for Central and N. Tamilnadu coast ... It has started already over C. Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/5B7d
A huge LOW circulation expected just above 5th parallel over S. Bay... it'll cover entire Srilanka ... http://ow.ly/i/5B6S .more rain for TN
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
All India Rainfall toppers from 1st January 2010 - 17th November 2010
(Minimum 375 cm)
- Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) - 1351 cm (Annual around 1100)
- Agumbe (Karnataka) - 708 cm (Annual over 750)
- Gaganbawada (Maharashtra) - 591 cm (Annual over 600)
- Shirali (Karnataka) - 474 cm (Annual over 400)
- Mangalore AP (Karnataka) - 467 cm (Annual around 400)
- Panambur (Karnataka) - 459 cm (Annual over 350)
- Bhagamandala (Karnataka) - 446 cm (Annual over 600)
- Mahabaleshwar (Maharashtra) - 446 cm (Annual over 600)
- Honavar (Karnataka) - 444 (Annual over 350)
- Coochbehar (West Bengal) - 443 cm (Annual around 350)
- Silchar (Assam) - 439 cm (Annual around 350)
- Passighat (Arunachal Pradesh) - 436 cm (Annual around 450)
- Kottigehara (Karnataka) - 432 cm (Annual around ??)
- Karwar (Karnataka) - 428 (Annual around 350)
- Harnai (Maharashtra) - 424 cm (Annual around 250)
- Buxa (West Bengal) - 414 cm (Annual around 550)
- Ratnagiri (Maharashtra) - 400 cm (Annual around 300)
- Panjim (Goa) - 387 cm (Annual around 300)
- North Lakhimpur (Assam) - 385 cm (Annual around 350)
- Chinnakallar (Tamilnadu) - 382 cm (Annual around 500)
Tamilnadu rainfall from 8.30 am, 16-Nov to 05.30 am by 90B Well MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA (WML)... http://ow.ly/3b6yd
3pm, Heavy showers over S. and E. Andhra, S. Karnataka, entire Kerala and S. Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/5z67
RT @balajisanjeev: Sunshine sunshine... In Pammal Chennai @weatherofindia (1:51pm)
Category:
chennai
Today a low level circulation can be seen over Gulf of Mannar and S-E coast of Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/5yWh
RT @balajisanjeev: Shine and rain simultaneously in Pammal, Chennai.. @weatherofindia http://ping.fm/MKeL0 (11:05am)
Category:
chennai
Rainfall from 8.30 am to 05.30 am by 90B Well MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA (WML)
Mailam (Tindivanam) – 73 mm
Chennai (Nungambakkam) – 52 mm
Madhavaram – 50 mm
Tutiorin - 42 mm
Chennai (Meeambakkam) – 41 mm
Ennore Port – 30 mm
Pondicherry – 29 mm
Coonoor - 13 mm
Ariyalur - 09 mm
Pechiparai – 07 mm
Neyveli – 07 mm
Tirumalla – 65 mm
Kavali – 58 mm
Nellore – 39 mm
ISRO – 27 mm
Trivandrum - 50 mm
My dad told that it poured in Kuzhithurai and there was knee deep water in marthandam. seeeing neyoor getting 106mm my home town is also expected to cross 10cm tomorrow
Category:
low pressure area
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
7:30pm, Showers continue along S. coast Andhra and N. coast Tamilnadu.. showers are now extnd up to N. coast Andhra.. http://ow.ly/i/5xIQ
Mumbai - observed on 15-Nov-2010, "Sharp fall in Mumbai temperatures in a short time span" .. http://ow.ly/3aq9S
1:30pm, Heavy showers continue along N. coastal Tamilnadu and S.coastal Andhra... http://ow.ly/i/5xgB
Chennai - 1:30pm, Heavy showers and drizzles will continue till midnight ... as "90B" slowly crosses inland.. http://ow.ly/i/5xgB
5:30am, Analysis show the Low pressure system "90B" is very near to N.Central Tamilnadu coast.. S-E of Chennai.. http://ow.ly/i/5x4L
"90B" is very near to chennai at 8:30am ... and take a look at what's coming (rain) thru the day.. http://ow.ly/i/5wVX
RT @prabhakaran_v: Looks like i have to work from home. Its pouring down heavily here chennai rain adambakkam (9:01am)
Category:
chennai
Monday, November 15, 2010
2:30pm, Easterlies along with a LOW pressure system is nearing N. Tamilnadu coast.. showers over N.TN nd S. Andhra seen. http://ow.ly/i/5vCi
RT @balajisanjeev: View of rain in Pammal area of Chennai... @weatherofindia http://ping.fm/8F4DI (1:25pm)
Category:
chennai
After this Bay low "90B"... the S-S-E Bay will throw another LOW system around 20-Nov ... http://ow.ly/i/5vtS
IMD-GFS predicts that the present Bay low "90B" will not attain depression status.. It'll make landfall on 17-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/5vtL
RT @balajisanjeev: Mild rains in the morning in Pammal Pozhichalur areas of Chennai, though stopped now. (10:12am)
Category:
chennai,
Pammal,
Pozhichalur
Chennai - Due to "90B", The intensity and frequency of these sharp showers will increase from tomorrow(16-Nov) morning. http://ow.ly/39G7j
Chennai - Due to "90B" has started receiving sharp showers from morning 8:40am today.. http://ow.ly/39G5l
Update on "90B" ... will it reach Cyclone strength ??
JTWC warning
--------------------------------
IMD warning
--------------------------------
No update or warning from IMD yet 9am,15-Nov-2010.
Satellite shot
----------------------------------
COLA-GFS
-------------------------------
GFS model predicts that the present "90B" system may reach a depression status and make landfall along N. Tamilnadu and S. Andhra coast on 17-Nov-2010.
Heavy widespread showers predicted along these zone till evening of 18-Nov-2010.
Chennai - Has started receiving sharp showers from morning 8:40am today.
Chennai - The intensity and frequency of these sharp showers will increase from tomorrow(16-Nov) morning.
--------------------------------
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 89.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 820 NAUTICAL MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. THE LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA HAS RAPIDLY ORGANIZED AND DEEPENED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AS SUPPORTED BY A RECENTLY FORMED CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE WESTERN FLANK. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, ALBEIT BETTER DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER JUST EAST OF THE CONVECTION, THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 142005Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW 15-20 KNOTS OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HOWEVER A SLIGHT DIFFLUENT FLOW NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM HAS EMERGED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSTIY FIX AT 142330Z. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. IN VIEW OF THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE MORE DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
IMD warning
--------------------------------
No update or warning from IMD yet 9am,15-Nov-2010.
Satellite shot
----------------------------------
COLA-GFS
-------------------------------
GFS model predicts that the present "90B" system may reach a depression status and make landfall along N. Tamilnadu and S. Andhra coast on 17-Nov-2010.
Heavy widespread showers predicted along these zone till evening of 18-Nov-2010.
Chennai - Has started receiving sharp showers from morning 8:40am today.
Chennai - The intensity and frequency of these sharp showers will increase from tomorrow(16-Nov) morning.
Category:
Cyclones,
IMD Report,
North East Monsoon
Sunday, November 14, 2010
Another depression is expected over S.S. Bay along 5th parallel on 20-Nov-2010... http://ow.ly/i/5tUR
5:30am, Analysis show a circulation slowly building over S-E corner Bay and moving West .. http://ow.ly/i/5tT9
Analysis show a weak High pressure Anti-cyclone building over N. Bay.. typical of November month .. http://ow.ly/i/5tT9
Saturday, November 13, 2010
IRI :: Heavy rainfall forecast for South Kerala and adjoining South Tamil Nadu from 16-Nov to 20-Nov ... http://ow.ly/39cB5
La Nina yet to peak, may last until 2012
The currently strong La Nina condition in the Equatorial East Pacific would continue to grow and reach peak strength over the next few months, according to Japanese researchers.
The Climate Variation Predictability and Applicability Research Programme at the Tokyo-based Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC) has maintained the outlook for La Nina to last long and persist until early 2012.
COLDER WINTER
A La Nina event, in which warming anomaly shifts to the West Pacific, has traditionally favoured a good Indian monsoon as evidenced in the 2010 season.
According to Dr Jing-Jia Luo, Senior Scientist at the RIGC, the strong La Nina would bring colder surface air temperatures over many parts of the globe during this winter and the following spring.
Exceptions are the Northern Eurasian continent and Southeast North America where the odds favour a warmer-than-normal winter.
Above-normal precipitation could be expected to occur in South Africa, Australia, Northeast Brazil and South Asia (where India falls).
Cold and stormy weather might occur over Southeast China, along the Japan Sea and its coastal regions as well as northern parts of North America in early 2011.
EASTERLY WAVE
Meanwhile, back home, it emerges that the weather during the next week would be mostly dictated by an easterly wave across the Bay of Bengal.
Easterly waves travels along a straight line, and is the southerly counterparts of western disturbances that frequent the country's northern latitudes.
These waves carry their ‘payload' upfront and are fleet-footed in nature, often morphing into low-pressure areas and even cyclones.
International models, too, have indicated the straight line to the west for a disturbance that is currently located over the Andaman Sea.
‘Low's, depressions and cyclones take a trademark west-northwest track in the Bay of Bengal and travel along a southeast to northwest incline.
RAINS FORECAST
On Friday, an India Meteorological Department outlook for early next week said that the easterly wave will cause fairly widespread rainfall activity over Peninsular India with isolated heavy falls over coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University, however, said that maximum impact would be felt over southern parts of Sri Lanka.
The rest of Sri Lanka, South Kerala and adjoining South Tamil Nadu and the rest of Peninsular India would also be battered by rainfall of varying intensity during the next week, the IRI outlook said.
Meanwhile, the well-marked ‘low' over Northeast Arabian Sea washed over along the Gujarat coast and weakened into a ‘low' on Friday.
The resultant moisture incursion is still kicking up a lot of non-seasonal rain over Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
SURPLUS RAINS
The IRI estimated that up to 280 per cent above the normal rain would have fallen over the region during this period.
It would be above 60 to 40 per cent over Central India and above 20 to 40 per cent over the West Peninsula.
The IMD said in an update on Friday that widespread rainfall was reported from South Peninsular India during the 24 hours ending in the morning.
It was fairly widespread over Coastal Karnataka, Konkan, Goa, Saurashtra, Kutch, East Rajasthan and Central India.
Insat imagery showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of Telangana, South Chhattisgarh, South Orissa, Northeast and Southeast Arabian Sea, Southeast Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea.
Category:
IMD Report,
India,
North East Monsoon
Heavy widespread showers for N. Tamilnadu coast on 17-Nov, as the first easterly wave with a LOW will reach land.. http://ow.ly/i/5s8A
Seems the clouding of "erstwhile remnant of erstwhile Jal" is persistant and far too sticky, on the western front. Now, it has crept upto Delhi region, and Delhi is receiving rains from 11.a.m. today. Some areas have measured upto 18 mms in 90 minutes.
There goes any hopes of winter recovering next few days in Delhi !Minimum today 18c (+6).
Friday, November 12, 2010
A lot was expected from Cyclone Jal for a good revival, or should I say commencemnt, of the NEM.
But, short of hitting the East coast of India, Jal started its anomalous behaviour.
Short of striking the east coast, on the 4th. of November, it met with wind shear resistance, and started weakening, and struck the coast as a DD on the 7th.
A dryish DD ! The rain precipitation was nothing much, and lasted just for barely 12 hrs. Within 10 hrs of landfall, we were searching for Jal !
On re emerging in the Arabian Sea, on the 9th, its performance was again "unworthy" of the season. It did justice with fairly good rains along the west coast ! Karwar with 207 mms in 24 hrs was the highest. And several places in Goa and Konkan had 80- 150 mms.
Then it entered Saurashtra, where actually the people are looking to dry weather, lest their winter crops get damaged. But, on the 11th, it rained 60-70 mms in the desert region of Kutch and Jaisalmer.Central India too received heavy thundershowers.
Not to mention Mumbai, which has been receiving frequent rains from Diwali day. Today, 12th.Friday, there was drizzling in Mumbai.
And, the clouding, spreading north, has practically thrown the winter in the region for a toss.High day and night temperatures, up to +10c above normal are recorded in the NW.
No W.D. seen for NW soon.
And, the south, T.N. and interior Karnataka, are still awaiting a proper commencement of the NEM. All hopes on another system from the Bay.
Nothing in sight as on today, and no system formation seen till Monday, at least. I only hope the expectations of a good system doesnt fizzle out.
I mention this, as I see an Easterly wave. a mild one, coming towards the T.N. coast by Monday (15th.) . This would only mean a longer wait for a regular system.
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