A weather warning valid for Saturday and Sunday said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over south Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
Widespread rainfall has occurred over Tamil Nadu and Kerala during the 24 hours ending Friday morning ahead of an easterly wave action expected to be triggered along the Tamil Nadu coast from Saturday.
All the same, the freak weather masterminded by the Arabian Sea along the West Coast persisted, with fairly widespread rain being reported over as far as Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
It was scattered over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, South Andhra Pradesh, Coastal Karnataka and Jammu and Kashmir, an update from India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
MERCURY DOWN
Meanwhile, minimum temperatures have fallen by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and East Madhya Pradesh during past 24 hours with some of the clouds clearing off.
However, they still continue to remain above normal by 4 to 6 deg Celsius over these regions, the IMD noted.
On Friday afternoon, Insat cloud imagery showed convective (rain-bearing) clouds driven down south to over parts of extreme South Peninsula, South Bay of Bengal, South Andaman Sea and East-central and Southeast Arabian Sea.
The upper air cyclonic circulation over East-central Arabian Sea persisted, and so did the trough from this system, though truncated and extending up to Gujarat only on Friday. But, the other weather-making trough embedded in the seasonal westerlies across the North-west border had checked in over North-east Rajasthan and neighbourhood.
WEATHER WARNING
A weather warning valid for Saturday and Sunday said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over South Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
Forecast until Monday spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread rain or thundershowers for Kerala, Lakshadweep, Tamil Nadu and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
It will be scattered or in the form of thundershowers over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, Konkan and Goa.
Minimum temperature is expected to fall further by 2 to 4 deg Celsius over many parts of North-west, Central and East India during the next week as colder north-westerlies begin to fill the plains.
Extended forecast until Wednesday said that fairly widespread rains would fall over South Peninsular India while being scattered over Gujarat and adjoining Rajasthan.
LA NINA OUTLOOK
Meanwhile, better model consensus is becoming evident over the tenure of the persisting La Nina event in the East Equatorial Pacific.
The strong La Nina conditions that boosted the Indian monsoon this year will continue at least into early next year, an update from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said. Earlier, a group of Japanese scientists at the Tokyo-based Regional Institute for Global Change had said that the La Nina might last for entire 2011 and even into 2012.
On Friday, the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services said that there is a 25 per cent chance that the La Nina would last into August-September-October 2011, well after the south-west monsoon for the year has ended.
‘Neutral' (neither La Nina nor monsoon-killer El Nino) conditions have been given a 50 per cent chance of sustaining while El Nino itself is being given only 25 per cent, according to the CPC outlook.
Even ‘neutral' conditions are enough to favour the cause of a trouble-free south-west monsoon for India, according to some experts.
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