Chennai has already 30% deficit rainfall for this season. If this system doesn't bring rain, then the gap would widen. Also, the next system is expected to cross near southern tip of TN, hence impact on North TN would be less. I guess by the end of the season, chennai would be with 50% deficit rain. Anyone agree with me ????
Myself agree with you. Venkatesh any comments on this? Even the system which may cross southern tip will not bring much rain but will move in a parallel westernly direction into Arabian sea and intensify into severve low pressure move north and will cause asusual extremely heavy rains over Maharastra,Gujrat,Rajasthan. These states have a record rainy season from june-december. TN is bound to be in 50% deficit. This was predicted earlier.
I dont think the whole TN would fall in deficit. Only the Coastal districts will. Chennai was betrayed by Jal and even the system which formed last week did not bring anything. This season, so far chennai did not get rainfall above 8cm in 24hrs span. I cut short my holiday and came to chennai to see Jal washing ashore, but when I reached it was quite calm, dont know where Jal went.
From Oct-to-dec(Post monsoon NE season)50 years average rainfall in TN is 431.8 mm.
please refer the below link http://www.imd.gov.in/section/hydro/dynamic/rfmaps/seasonal/postmon2009.jpg
Already it received 453.1mm.So there is no way it can end up with deficient rainfall.
Till date it received 35% excess rainfall. please refer http://www.imdchennai.gov.in/hydro_graph.htm
Apart from Chennai almost all districts are in flood like sitaution.For 11 districts schools and colleges are not functioning from past 4 days due to heavy rain.
for chennai,It is true that it didn't receive NE monsoon Quota. But if you see the overall year's total rainfall, Against 122cm it already received 132CM rainfall. Please refer http://www.imdchennai.gov.in/rdwr.htm
With respect to rainfall, Overall this is fabulous year for TN. Hopefully it is not going to create flood.
With reference to Chennai: Though Chennai/Chennai Suburbs has either received or close to receive Normal Annual Rainfall, we have to keep in mind that the majority of this quota has been through South West Monsoon. So, the question is, can the ground water level sustain 2011 Summer? I wish chennai gets atleast 5mm - 10mm of drizzles every alternate day till Dec 15th and receive some pre-monsoon showers during March 2011, to ride smoothly into next summer. - Vasanth
One more point: Starting 2005, we more or less had excess annual rainfall and the ground water level in chennai somehow could cope up with the growing population for the recent years. We are not sure how IMD calculates the "Normal Rainfall Amount". Basically how many years do they take into account. I feel, going forward, receiving Normal rainfall is not going to be sufficient. Only an excess rainfall(May be Normal + 25 cm?) could meet the demand. - Vasanth
As vasanth rightly pointed out, Excess rainfall is not enough. This year we received more showers during SWM. Only NEM, increases ground water table level because of Widespread rainfall. There was only one day of widesprad rainfall in chennai (when JAl neared the coast). Every year atleast once chembarambakkam and poondi become almost full. But at this part of time they have very less storage.See http://www.hindu.com/2010/11/20/stories/2010112064370500.htm. The Ghat regions of the western TN had received excess rainfall that has attributed to the 35%(above normal) TN average. Puducherry is nearing 100 cm rain during Oct-Dec period. Can I get the details of total rainfall of Gingee this year. Because I see this name often on heavy rainfall list.
Gingee(Villupuram Dst.) has been gettin heavy rainfall tis year...though the exact rain details are not available...by adding from up the daily rain report that IMD Chennai presents, Gingee stands at a whopping 159cm(approximate) for the year...of those 61cm(approximate) in november alone !
Karthu, Thanks for taking pains in collecting the data. Gingee's annual rainfall should be around 90-120CM. Considering Light rainfall too, this year from the data you have given,it should have crossed 180CM. Also the North Coastal AP had received excess rainfall. Look at vishakapattinam, it had received 186CM against its average of 90CM. Excess rainfall during NEM. Few days back the last system too dumped 15CM in a span of two days there. So atlast Chennai's Monsoon comes to an end I guess. No more rainfall for the rest of the year. Better luck next year. Like Laila of 2010, we can expect cyclones during May!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Chennai has already 30% deficit rainfall for this season. If this system doesn't bring rain, then the gap would widen. Also, the next system is expected to cross near southern tip of TN, hence impact on North TN would be less. I guess by the end of the season, chennai would be with 50% deficit rain. Anyone agree with me ????
ReplyDeleteMyself agree with you. Venkatesh any comments on this? Even the system which may cross southern tip will not bring much rain but will move in a parallel westernly direction into Arabian sea and intensify into severve low pressure move north and will cause asusual extremely heavy rains over Maharastra,Gujrat,Rajasthan. These states have a record rainy season from june-december. TN is bound to be in 50% deficit. This was predicted earlier.
ReplyDeleteI dont think the whole TN would fall in deficit. Only the Coastal districts will. Chennai was betrayed by Jal and even the system which formed last week did not bring anything. This season, so far chennai did not get rainfall above 8cm in 24hrs span. I cut short my holiday and came to chennai to see Jal washing ashore, but when I reached it was quite calm, dont know where Jal went.
ReplyDeleteI just saw one of the news channel.
ReplyDeleteYesterday heavy rain battered in costal districts of tamil nadu.
Many places in cuddalore recorded more than 20cm.
MY assumption is chennai may fall under rain deficit.
But overall TN will 35% excess rain at the end of season.
Till yesterday it was 26% excess.Today I expect a significant jump due to heavy rain in Delta districts and north coastal areas yesterday.
From Oct-to-dec(Post monsoon NE season)50 years average rainfall in TN is 431.8 mm.
ReplyDeleteplease refer the below link
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/hydro/dynamic/rfmaps/seasonal/postmon2009.jpg
Already it received 453.1mm.So there is no way it can end up with deficient rainfall.
Till date it received 35% excess rainfall.
please refer
http://www.imdchennai.gov.in/hydro_graph.htm
Apart from Chennai almost all districts are in flood like sitaution.For 11 districts schools and colleges are not functioning from past 4 days due to heavy rain.
for chennai,It is true that it didn't receive NE monsoon Quota. But if you see the overall year's total rainfall, Against 122cm it already received 132CM rainfall.
Please refer
http://www.imdchennai.gov.in/rdwr.htm
With respect to rainfall, Overall this is fabulous year for TN.
Hopefully it is not going to create flood.
With reference to Chennai:
ReplyDeleteThough Chennai/Chennai Suburbs has either received or close to receive Normal Annual Rainfall, we have to keep in mind that the majority of this quota has been through South West Monsoon. So, the question is, can the ground water level sustain 2011 Summer?
I wish chennai gets atleast 5mm - 10mm of drizzles every alternate day till Dec 15th and receive some pre-monsoon showers during March 2011, to ride smoothly into next summer.
- Vasanth
One more point:
ReplyDeleteStarting 2005, we more or less had excess annual rainfall and the ground water level in chennai somehow could cope up with the growing population for the recent years.
We are not sure how IMD calculates the "Normal Rainfall Amount". Basically how many years do they take into account.
I feel, going forward, receiving Normal rainfall is not going to be sufficient. Only an excess rainfall(May be Normal + 25 cm?) could meet the demand.
- Vasanth
As vasanth rightly pointed out, Excess rainfall is not enough. This year we received more showers during SWM. Only NEM, increases ground water table level because of Widespread rainfall. There was only one day of widesprad rainfall in chennai (when JAl neared the coast). Every year atleast once chembarambakkam and poondi become almost full. But at this part of time they have very less storage.See http://www.hindu.com/2010/11/20/stories/2010112064370500.htm. The Ghat regions of the western TN had received excess rainfall that has attributed to the 35%(above normal) TN average. Puducherry is nearing 100 cm rain during Oct-Dec period. Can I get the details of total rainfall of Gingee this year. Because I see this name often on heavy rainfall list.
ReplyDelete@Mr.Ganesh raja,
ReplyDeleteGingee(Villupuram Dst.) has been gettin heavy rainfall tis year...though the exact rain details are not available...by adding from up the daily rain report that IMD Chennai presents, Gingee stands at a whopping 159cm(approximate) for the year...of those 61cm(approximate) in november alone !
Karthu, Thanks for taking pains in collecting the data. Gingee's annual rainfall should be around 90-120CM. Considering Light rainfall too, this year from the data you have given,it should have crossed 180CM. Also the North Coastal AP had received excess rainfall. Look at vishakapattinam, it had received 186CM against its average of 90CM. Excess rainfall during NEM. Few days back the last system too dumped 15CM in a span of two days there. So atlast Chennai's Monsoon comes to an end I guess. No more rainfall for the rest of the year. Better luck next year. Like Laila of 2010, we can expect cyclones during May!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDelete