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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 89.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 820 NAUTICAL MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. THE LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA HAS RAPIDLY ORGANIZED AND DEEPENED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AS SUPPORTED BY A RECENTLY FORMED CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE WESTERN FLANK. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, ALBEIT BETTER DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER JUST EAST OF THE CONVECTION, THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 142005Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW 15-20 KNOTS OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HOWEVER A SLIGHT DIFFLUENT FLOW NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM HAS EMERGED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSTIY FIX AT 142330Z. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. IN VIEW OF THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE MORE DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
IMD warning
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No update or warning from IMD yet 9am,15-Nov-2010.
Satellite shot
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COLA-GFS
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GFS model predicts that the present "90B" system may reach a depression status and make landfall along N. Tamilnadu and S. Andhra coast on 17-Nov-2010.
Heavy widespread showers predicted along these zone till evening of 18-Nov-2010.
Chennai - Has started receiving sharp showers from morning 8:40am today.
Chennai - The intensity and frequency of these sharp showers will increase from tomorrow(16-Nov) morning.
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