Minimum temperatures are expected to fall by 2-3 degree Celsius over parts of Northwest, West and Central India from Thursday onwards, says an India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook.
This would happen with a calibrated reduction in cloudiness and resultant non-seasonal rainfall over these areas brought about by rogue systems taking shape and sustaining in the Arabian Sea.
But scattered rain or thundershowers would linger over many parts of West and Northwest for at least another day, the IMD said.
The causative upper air cyclonic circulation persisted over Gujarat and neighbourhood. A trough in lower levels lay extended from this system to Haryana across east Rajasthan.
Haryana, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Gujarat region, West Madhya Pradesh, Konkan, Goa and Madhya Maharashtra are expected to be brought under varying wet spells in this manner on Thursday.
International model outlooks for at least the next two weeks did not indicate the possibility of a return of wet weather to this region, except briefly over the Konkan-Mumbai coast.
WET IN SOUTH
Towards the South, however, fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Kerala, Lakshadweep and Tamil Nadu.
Scattered rain or thundershowers have been forecast Coastal and South Interior Karnataka and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts said that the week ending December 2 is likely to see a trough of low pressure hanging over contiguous Southwest Bay of Bengal, Equatorial Indian Ocean and Southeast Arabian Sea.
The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services attributes this to a strong but short phase of a wet Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave over this region.
The wet and dry phase of the eastward-bound wave that transits the region periodically has commensurate impact over ground-level weather.
The persisting La Nina conditions in the East Equatorial Pacific would also have a say on emerging weather in the region, the CPC assessed.
There is an increasing chance for above-normal precipitation for East Indian Ocean (adjoining South and Southwest Bay of Bengal), Southern Indian Peninsula and the Comorin region, the CPC forecast statement said.
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) sees active conditions developing over the Bay of Bengal during the week ending December 1, with coastal Tamil Nadu and the Peninsular Tip slipping under a wet cover.
Parts of West Madhya Pradesh, Central Peninsula, East and Northeast India could also witness occasional showers during this period, the NCEP said.
The week that follows (December 2 to10) would once again see fairly widespread showers over Coastal Tamil Nadu coast along with Sri Lanka and the Comorin region.
Meanwhile, fairly widespread rainfall occurred over East Rajasthan, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Coastal Karnataka during the last 24 hours ending Wednesday morning, an IMD update said.
Scattered rain bands originating from the Arabian Sea had reached as far northeast as West Uttar Pradesh, the IMD said. Scattered rains were recorded also over Konkan and Goa.
Insat cloud imagery on Wednesday afternoon showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of Tamil Nadu, South Bay of Bengal, Southeast Arabian Sea and the Comorin area.
The upper air cyclonic circulation over Comorin and adjoining areas of Kerala and Lakshadweep, too, persisted.
An IMD weather warning for Thursday and Friday said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep and Kerala.
An extended outlook valid until Monday spoke about the possibility of continued and fairly widespread rainfall over Peninsular India.
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