Wednesday, October 27, 2010

IMD :: North-East monsoon may break out by Friday

The launch window for north-east monsoon has been thrown open with India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicating that the seasonal rains may break out over Tamil Nadu and adjoining peninsular India around Friday.
Coinciding with the launch phase, a weather system has been forecast to wash over along the Chennai coast Sunday/Monday to bring heavy rains over Chennai and the rest of the Tamil Nadu coast.

Prevailing wind pattern suggested that the westerly winds may be entering the last lap over Peninsular India, if not entirely swept away by the north-easterlies turning easterlies more to the south.
The easterlies are shown to rapidly gather steam across the Bay of Bengal and adjoining Peninsular India to strike up a steady cruise by Friday when the onset of north-east monsoon is expected to happen.
The build-up to Friday as seen by the IMD indicated that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over coastal Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, south coastal Orissa and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Scattered rain or thundershowers has been forecast over Kerala and Interior Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

International models did not indicate any major weather system (monsoon depressions or cyclones) materialising as part of the north-east monsoon entourage until during the first week of November.
The European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), however, predicts the formation of a low-pressure area over South-east Bay of Bengal by November 5, up to which forecasts were available.
Significantly on Tuesday, the IMD saw the south-west monsoon exiting large parts of East, Central and Peninsular India in one fell swoop paving the way for the monsoon on retreat or north-east monsoon.

The system had withdrawn from Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat; most parts of West Bengal and Sikkim; parts of Orissa, more parts of Chhattisgarh, most of Vidarbha, parts of Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra and Konkan; North Arabian Sea and parts of Central Arabian Sea.
Forecast until Sunday said that fairly widespread rainfall activity would occur over Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Meanwhile, minimum temperatures have fallen two to three deg Celsius below normal over some parts of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh ahead of the onset of winter over north-west India.
Forecasts indicated that minimum temperatures would fall by one to two deg Celsius over Indo-Gangetic plains and East India during the next three days.

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