Cyclone "04B" - "Giri" ... update

Very latest location ... 18.5N and 92.6E
Pressure ... 959mb
Wind speed ... 160 kmph
This Cyclone "Giri" was not predicted by most weather models around the world to become such a severe Cyclone. And that too in very short time span.


IMD
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Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic storm “GIRI” over eastcentral & adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal.

The severe cyclonic storm “GIRI” over eastcentral & adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm and moved northeastwards, lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 22^nd October 2010 over the northeast Bay of Bengal near lat. 19.0⁰N and long.93.0⁰E, about 150 km south of Sittwe(Myanmar) and 110 km west-southwest of Kyaukpyu (Myanmar), 240 km south-southeast of Teknaf (Bangladesh) and 650 km southeast of Digha (West Bengal, India).

The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify further and move northeastwards and cross Myanmar coast between Sittwe (Myanmar) and Kyaukpyu (Myanmar) by today, the 22^nd October 2010 evening/night.

Since the system is likely to move towards north Myanmar and adjoining Bangladesh coasts, it is not expected to affect east coast of India. However, the system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts. will be informed accordingly.

JTWC
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TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (GIRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED 
ON A 212330Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 
85 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES OF T=5.0 FROM 
PGTW AT 212330Z AND T=4.0 FROM KNES AT 212030Z. TC 04B HAS CONTINUED 
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT 
CONTENT. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG 
THE PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND 
EAST. GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CARRY THE SYSTEM INLAND JUST 
AFTER TAU 12, WITH DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING INTENSITY THRESHOLD 
OF 35 KNOTS OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF WESTERN MYANMAR OCCURRING BY 
TAU 36. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT 
FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CYCLONE 
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR PERHAPS INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY 
PRIOR TO LANDFALL DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND PASSAGE 
OVER VERY WARM WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 
15 FEET.

JTWC projected path
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Satellite shot
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Now "Giri" has an EYE to it.