The Arabian Sea system is now a depression.
It was stationed at 15.5N and 63.5E at 5.30pm IST today, 31st, that is 1050 Kms South-West of Mumbai.Core pressure is now 1001 Hpa,and the wind speed is 25 Knots.
System is expected to intensify, as the SST is conducive at 31c.
As expected, it has moved North-West, and is likely to continue in that direction for the next 24Hrs.Subsequently, it should encounter the W.D,and as mentioned yesterday in my write up,recurve towards the India/Pakistan border by the 3rd. of June.

Effectively,I maintain that the rainfall will decrease in Kerala and Karnataka coast from 1st. June.
But, Goa and Maharashtra coasts will get light to moderate rains from Wednesday till around the 6th. whilst the interior regions of Maharashtra, Karnataka and entire T.N will remain practically dry till the 8th./9th. of June at least.

Readings of 31st. May 2010:
Higheat in Asia: Dadu (Pakistan): 48c
Highest in India: Ganganagar: 46.4c
Hottest Night: Bikaner: 31.1cMumbai today: Colaba: 36.4c, Santa Cruz:35.2c. 
Mumbai will get its pre-Monsoon showers from Wednessday.Forecast till Saturday is that days will be sweaty and hot, as there will be cloudy skies and some rain.

NDTV's Monsoon Express ... http://ow.ly/1S12A

RT @chelimada7: while the rest of India swellters under heat wave,plenty of rain in Trivandrum,Kerala. (3:25pm)

RT @NaghmaNDTV: OK its official, monsoon is here! Its here in kerala and advancing..so wait for your rain :)

Chennai - temp. now 5:20pm is a well reduced 31.2°C.. due to stiff S-E breeze.

4:30pm, Showers along Kerala coast is getting subdued due to the "94A" effect.... http://ow.ly/i/1Q5s

4:30pm, Thunder cells over W. Bengal, N-N-W Karnataka, while potential cyclone "94A" is getting a shape... http://ow.ly/i/1Q5s

RT @Monsoonexpress: Catch the Monsoon Express tonight at 9pm on NDTV 24x7
The first showers, the first rain experience...!!

@vjgove >> Do U need the present weather? Or Climate of Kerala? Mail us for more at contact(at)indianweatherman.com .. Thanks

RT @EcoSeed: How health and climate change is related http://bit.ly/cxyK7V walmart climatechange health renewableenergy greennews

Rain map of 30-May, shows Showers along Kerala & Karnataka coast, N-W Tamilnadu and as usual N-E states.. http://ow.ly/i/1Q0u

Chennai - touched a max of 40.1°C (12:35pm) and then early Sea breeze has cooled things around. Now 2:46pm its 33.2 deg C

Heavy rains likely for Bay, east from mid-June

Heavy monsoon rains are projected to buffet the southern three-fourths of the country during a two-week phase starting from June 15, according to latest international weather model projections.
Outgoing long-wave wave projections, a proxy for cloud cover, suggest that the heaviest rains may unfold over Bay of Bengal and adjoining eastern parts of the country during this period.

WET MJO WAVE


All this would result from a renewed wet phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave that periodically transits the upper levels of the atmosphere above equatorial Indian Ocean.
The MJO wave has profound influence over weather on ground, especially during monsoon. The last active wet phase of the wave around May 25 saw the monsoon making an onset five days ahead of normal over Sri Lanka.
The south-west coast of India just to the north should also have normally witnessed the onset almost immediately after, but had to sit out thanks to a concurrent tropical cyclone ‘Laila' in the Bay of Bengal that pumped away available moisture.
By the time ‘Laila' blew over, the alternating ‘dry' phase of the MJO wave had set in, affecting the convection pattern, moisture build, wind profile and direction in the Arabian Sea.
The eastward-progressing active MJO wave has since brought South-east Asia and parts of the West Pacific under its influence. Alternating suppressed convection is likely to progress northward across India into early June.

FRESH CONVECTION


Fresh convection has begun to engulf south and adjoining east-central Arabian Sea thanks to the very warm seawaters.
The winds are also seen falling into the ideal pattern but the present convective state around the global tropics is not dominated by the wet phase of the MJO wave.
This is what has led experts to fear that the onset, expected to happen over the next two days as indicated by India Meteorological Department (IMD), may not sustain.
The IMD projects the formation of a monsoon vortex (an intense low-pressure area that is known to trigger the onset) in the Arabian Sea. But according to experts, a vortex is not generally independent from the MJO in true onset cases, although such vortices may develop occasionally without MJO support.

NEXT WAVE


The next wet MJO wave would not set in until the end of the first week of June, according to various model outlooks. The intervening period would see a low-pressure area spinning up over east-central Arabian Sea, which would intensify to become a likely tropical cyclone and track west-northwest.

The Oman coast and the southwest Gujarat coast are variously predicted to be the landfall areas depending on whether an incoming westerly trough keeps date.
If the latter is indeed the case, the cyclone would be swung east in line with the movement of the westerly trough and dumped over the Gujarat coast.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts , among others, has consistently pointed to this probability during the last six model runs.
Meanwhile, on Sunday, the IMD said in its update that conditions have become favourable for the onset over Kerala during the next two days.
Satellite imagery on Sunday afternoon showed convective clouds over parts of east-central Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and south and adjoining central Arabian Sea. Forecast until Wednesday suggested fairly widespread rain or thundershowers over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the Northeastern states, Kerala and coastal Karnataka while being scattered over south interior Karnataka. Widespread rain or thundershowers is expected to occur over Lakshadweep during this period.

A fresh western disturbance is likely to affect western Himalayan region from 2nd June onwards.

Fairly widespread rain/thundershowers would occur over northwest and west India.

Rise in maximum temperatures by 2-30 C over parts of northwest India and no significant change over central India during 2-3 days

RT @shuvankr: @weatherofindia A new cyclone forming at Arabian Sea? for now its depression 94A. http://ping.fm/lgZg9

Trough along east coast from coastal Orissa to south coastal Tamilnadu at mean sea level also persists.

Trough at mean sea level from west Uttar Pradesh to coastal West Bengal across Jharkhand persists

On 30-May, highest maximum temperature of 46.1°C was recorded at Nagpur (Maharashtra).

Heat wave conditions have abated from northwest India. Heat wave conditions continued to prevail over Vidarbha and isolated Telengana

Will Arabian sea Cyclone (Phet) track towards Gujarat ?? ... Keep following our Tweets.. http://ping.fm/JtaO7

Showers drying up along Kerala coast. What will happen to South-west monsoon winds along Kerala due to Cyclone (Phet)??. http://ow.ly/1RYBA

Cyclone "Phet"... coming soon.. http://ow.ly/1RYBA

Cyclone "94A" ... Update # 2 ... soon to be called as "Phet" ... http://ow.ly/1RYBA

Monsoon is official now but the showers are reducing along Kerala coast.

Monsoon hits India's southern coast: Weather office (IMD).... http://ow.ly/1RYxB

Kalignar TV :: IMD :: "South-west monsoon has set in over Kerala and Tamilnadu".. it's official now.

RT @bharat_cricfan: RT @YahooINNews: Monsoon hits Kerala - weather office http://tinyurl.com/25tvfnf

RT @piyush_veere: @weatherofindia - Patna, It was terribly hot yesterday,then thunderstorm cooled us,now its burning again.

@piyush_veere >> Monsoon for Patna is after 20-Jun.. Till then enjoy the HEAT and Thunder storms..!!

Cyclone "94A" ... Update # 2 ... soon to be called as "Phet"

Showers drying up along Kerala coast. What will happen to South-west monsoon winds along Kerala ??


JTWC warning
------------------------

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.3N 64.6E TO 14.1N 64.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 310600Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 64.1E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 
64.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 64.1E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTI-
CYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND CREATING A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVI-
RONMENT FOR THE LLCC. SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH SEA SUR-
FACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 31 CELSIUS BASED ON RECENT BUOY AND SHIP
OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 310507Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE
AND A SHIP OBSERVATION JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON BUILDING
DEEP CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

JTWC projected path
----------------------------------

IMD warning
--------------------------

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL

 AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.)

 A LOW PRESSURE AREA LIES OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. ACCORDING TO INSAT IMAGERY, THE  ASSOCIATED VORTEX T1.0 IS CENTRED NEAR LAT. 14.7°N LONG. 64.5°E.  NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS AND CURRENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WOULD CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 17°N OVER THE REGION.  THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE. THERE IS FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 30-32°C OVER THE REGION.

ASSOCIATED INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE REGION BETWEEN LAT. 9.5°N TO 18°N LONG. 57.5 TO 67.0°E

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.

THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa RUNS ALONG LAT 17°N OVER INDIAN REGION.

Satellite shot
----------------------

Mumbai:
The long hot wait for Mumbai seems to be ending.
Pre Monsoon showers should start from Wednessday,2 June. Initial 4/5 days, before actual onset of Monsoon, may feel hot and stuffy.

Monsoon seen in Kerala in 48 hrs - IMD... http://ow.ly/1RVRY

9:30am, Showers along Kerala and Karnataka coast, while "94A" brews over central Arabian sea... http://ow.ly/i/1PSe

RT @raji_13: It seems rainy season has raised its curtain in Kerala..enjoyed the drizzle at tvm.as soon as i landed i got drenched in rain!!

RT @vineethmohan: Strange climate in Kerala, rain and sunshine within 30 min intervals.. (8:47am)

Highest temperature in Asia on 30th. May: 48c Nawabshah (Pakistan).

More about Arabian sea potential Cyclone "94A" ... http://ow.ly/1RVMy

RT @bijumly: @weatherofindia Cool Weather at Bangalore today night Thanks

Monsoon model set to shift from statistics to simulation ... http://ow.ly/1RVLW

RT @piyush_veere: @WeatherOfIndia - (10pm,may30) Patna received the most needed showers . Bihar # http://ping.fm/9SEth

"Brewing low pressure over Arabian sea 94A .. may prove the monsoon's undoing"... http://ow.ly/1RVL0

Low pressure system "94 A"... Update # 1 .... http://ow.ly/1RVKd

"Brewing low may prove the monsoon's undoing"

The Indian monsoon is the hottest topic among international weather experts, who do not seem to accept India Meteorological Department's (IMD) onset forecast at its face value.
The IMD had said, in its newly-introduced, two-week forecast on Friday, that the onset might happen around Monday, followed by an orderly northward progression of rains along the West coast.

Full-scale onset


The full-scale onset of monsoon would have to wait until June 10, to time with the arrival of the next convective (wet or rain-generating) phase of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave that travels periodically from west to east.
The MJO wave has a major role in precipitating a copy-book onset as distinct from a ‘false onset,' which is likely to unravel around the timeline fixed by the IMD.
The MJO has an alternating ‘dry' (suppressed rain) phase, which is currently on play over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea, at large.

Onset vortex


The IMD had said that the onset would be facilitated by the formation of an ‘onset vortex,' expanded on Saturday to a full-blown low-pressure area.
The system might move away from the West coast to North-Northwest, but still would be able to draw in the flows and cause rains; it had said quoting numerical weather prediction models.
However, this may not be the case, according to the scientists. They believe that the brewing ‘low' might just prove the monsoon's undoing.
The onset, at best, would be transient and may not last longer than a couple of days.
This is because the ‘low' might strengthen rapidly and move away, robbing the monsoon system of much of its energy, denying the mainland any significant precipitation.
In fact, these scientists see the system developing as an intense cyclone (to be named ‘Phet') and moving initially West-Northwest and away in a near replication of Super Cyclone ‘Gonu' of 2007.

Gujarat for landfall?


Unlike in the Bay of Bengal, June is known for the strong cyclones in the Arabian Sea. Several factors, including warm waters and longer stay in the seas, may help strengthen the system many times over.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) continues to consider the south-west Gujarat coast as likely a target for landfall as the Oman coast on the other side, depending on the arrival of a westerly trough from across the border and dipping in.
One expert told Business Line on condition of anonymity that the ‘onset' phase as signalled by the IMD may end sooner than later, under the double whammy of the rogue Arabian Sea cyclone and a ‘dry' MJO phase.

Kinetic energy


Overall, kinetic energy is seen as only a fourth of what is required for the Arabian Sea to precipitate the onset, and may not improve substantially even with the formation of the vortex.
The kinetic energy could reach the threshold level only with the support of a wet MJO phase, and may do so only from June 8, according to the ECMWF.
Only this can ensure sufficient moisture flow rising to a level of five to six km, with the minimum threshold being four km, to sustain the onset phase for a week or so.
Another major facilitator is the formation of the east-west shear zone, which should be seen clearly demarcated at three km in height, but of which no specific forecast has been made.
This is the height at which the ‘monsoon front' moves to the North.

Low pressure system "94 A"... Update # 1

JTWC warning
-------------------------

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 
65.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 64.2E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTI-
CYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND CREATING A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVI-
RONMENT FOR THE LLCC. SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH SEA SUR-
FACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 31 CELSIUS BASED ON RECENT BUOY OBSERVA-
TIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
BASED ON BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS, 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

Latest satellite shot
---------------------------

Monsoon may set in over Kerala coast today and may not last longer due to the brewing LOW system over central Arabian sea.



Gujarat for landfall of potential Cyclone ?
---------------------------------------------------------------
Unlike in the Bay of Bengal, June is known for the strong cyclones in the Arabian Sea. Several factors, including warm waters and longer stay in the seas, may help strengthen the system many times over.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) continues to consider the south-west Gujarat coast as likely a target for landfall as the Oman coast on the other side, depending on the arrival of a westerly trough from across the border and dipping in.

WET MJO phase from 4-Jun to 19-Jun
-------------------------------------------------------------

The latest development, 94A, a low pressure area,now shows the churning of the Western branch of the monsoon. The Arabian Sea has livened up.
But what can the rain hungry Western Indian region expect now?
There are 2 different estimates for the system.
1. Some models, predict 94A, now at the low pressure stage, to strengthen and become a depression. The forecasted movement is in the North-Northwest direction. By the 4th./5th, it is predicted to move towards the Oman coast, and then fizzle out.
Resultantly, only moderate rain, could be expected along the West coast of India from the 2nd. upto the 6th. of June. But, as the system moves away from the Indian coast, rainfall would diminish in Kerala. If this option prevalis,a lot of moisture and clouds could be sucked into the depression from the Arabian Sea effecting the rains along Western India.

2. Other models, including ECMWF forecasts 94A to develop into a depression, and move North. It is estimated to hit the Gujarat coast by the 5th.
The rain result would be good rains along the west coast of India, and into Gujarat's Saurashtra region from the 3rd.
With these 2 options open, we will monitor the system and check its behaviour.

Personnaly,I would go in for a mixture of the 2 options.A re-curving option after moving towards Oman. With a W.D. approaching around the 3rd, the system would re-curve towards the Northeast around the time the W.D. moves along Pakistan. The land striking region in this case would be near the India/Pakistan Border region.
In this case, the Monsoon would initially cover Kerala, and maybe South coastal Karnataka, and then weaken to some extent till the "to be" depression fizzles out.

Highest in Asia on 30th. May: 48c Nawabshah (Pakistan).
Highest in India: Chandrapur: 46.6c.
Mumbai today: Colaba 35.8c, Santa Cruz: 34.8c.
Due to the depression forming in the Arabian Sea, Mumbai can expect Pre-Monsoon showers on the 2nd. Some pre-monsoon rainfall can be expected in Mumbai thereafter till the 6th. But weatherwise, it will get stuffy and humid once the pre-monsson rains commence.

94 A

30 May 2010 / 1200 UTC

There is a circulation in SW Arabian sea to West Central Arabian sea. As Shri.Pradeep pointed out the SW winds will be strongly circulating around this point. There will be a void in rainfall in Kerala when this system is picking up. But Bay will be active and continue to give rainfall in the eastern side of India including TN.

Nagercoil - sharp mild showers started from 3:30pm.. it'll intensify into night .

coastal karnataka & kerala getting intermittent sharp showers.

chennai - temp. now 2:22pm is at a moderate 33.8 deg C with good sea breeze from E-S-E

nagercoil - bright & sunny now 2:17pm with lots of low cloud movement from W-S-W. And wind from S-W. Showers expected after 5pm.

12:30pm, less showers over kerala, thunder cell over Orissa & Andhra border ..

Chennai - since Sea breeze has set in very early temp. is goin down fast. now 1:23pm its at 36 deg C

chennai - touched a max of 39.9 °C (12:59pm) & now sea breeze has set in early .

Somali pirates and SWM onset.

Day before yesterday [28.5.2010] it was announced that Somali pirates sneaked into Indian waters in Arabian sea near Minicoy. This was an indication that the cross equtorial flow was gaining strength. [That is why the pirates were drifted towards Minicoy island in Arabian sea]
But to day there is no strong monsoonal currents visible near somali coast. Hopefully waiting.

Nagercoil - No rain now .. wind & low cloud direction is from S-W. more showers expected towards evening.

Nagercoil - travelling towards nagercoil & into sharp showers .. monsoon is here !

Crossing one of india's windy places "aralvaimoli" .. http://ping.fm/BH3ME

@jothishnair1010 >> Pls report about rain & monsoon from Trivandrum. If possible upload some snapshots as well. Put a msg to us. Thanks.

RT @jothishnair1010: OMG!! The rain is pouring like cascade!! Trivandrum is totally doused in rain! (9:21pm)

RT @nextvivek: loving trivandrum rains :D (10:02pm)

RT @rsrijith: Drenched in Rain. Feels like back in kerala. :) (9:57pm)

RT @AlertNet: Guatemala braces itself for first Pacific storm of season, which is expected to bring heavy flooding.... http://ow.ly/1RzPo

RT @AlertNet: Water begins seeping from lake in Pakistan; officials say next two days critical to avoid catastrophe http://ow.ly/1RzNG

9:30pm, Showers over S. Kerala continues.. http://ow.ly/i/1Orj

RT @sunnypokkathil: @weatherofindia good rains at Kottayam now (8:19am)

9:30pm, Thunder cell over S.Karnataka along T.N border, N & N-E Orissa, and showers over central Andhra ... http://ow.ly/i/1Orj

The Arabian sea system is predicted to move North.. this may DRY up the kerala coast for next 1 week. Keep ur fingers crossed.

9:30pm, South-Central Arabian sea is getting ready to host a Depression OR Cyclone in next 24hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/1Orj

Wind analysis shows, the Low level Somali Jet is getting strong and available till Maldives.. http://ow.ly/i/1Ogd

@I_Sharat >> Follow our tweets for more info... or visit www.indianweatherman.com

@I_Sharat >>> a minor Monsoon current is already over South Kerala... Met. dept. will announce the monsoon when the Current becomes strong.

GFS :: Predicts a cyclone / depression West of Goa on 1-Jun... this may spoil the initial widespread monsoon showers for Kerala .

Raining in Bangalore as well ..!!

RT @manionweb: Wov...its raining in bangalore... (6:20pm)

It's raining in Kolkata as well..!!

RT @Niloothecombo: After a sultry day its, raining in kolkata again ,,, relief !!!! (6:13pm)

RT @shreyasonline: @RohanChandane ya rain with some ice pellets in New Delhi too!

RT @Upasana_Dixit: Delhi smells 'clean' right now. Mostly mud and wet grass, smell of freshness.

RT @whizkidd: http://ping.fm/kY1TZ - Relaxing on the shores of The Vembanad lake... (4:30pm)

RT @summer_yellow: Rain at south end of Kerala and Very hot at north end of Kerala (4:42pm)

RT @craig5655: @sardesairajdeep yeh we are already getting rain sporadically in kerala for the lsat week or so

RT @Manoj100: RT @sardesairajdeep: best news of the day: light rain in delhi, monsoon set to hit kerala within next 48 hours.

Chennai - Temperature now 6:25pm is 32.2°C... and with stiff breeze from S-E

5:30pm, Showers organizing well over Arabian sea just off-coast of S. Kerala.... http://ow.ly/i/1OeI

5:30pm, Showers continue over S. Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/1OeI

5:30pm, Isolated showers over Chatisgarh, N-W Andhra, central & S. Karnataka, N. Tamilnadu, S.central Tamilnadu... http://ow.ly/i/1OeI

5:30pm, Showers over Delhi, N-W Uttar Pradesh, S. Jharkand, Widespread over S. Bengal and N-E Orissa... http://ow.ly/i/1OeI

RT @akashkumarsingh: @weatherofindia it s raining in delhi (4:06pm)

Chennai - Sea breeze has set in well... temperature goin down fast.. now 2:40pm its 37.7°C

Chennai - ** Good News **... signs of Sea breeze setting in from EAST now 2:16pm and temp. now is 41.1 deg C.. will go down in another 1 hr.

Cloud burst over Salem (Tamilnadu), records 10cm of rain on 28-May... http://ow.ly/1RuJB

Rain map of 28-May, shows showers over J & K, N-E states, Tamilnadu, S.Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/1O5W

Cloud burst over Salem and showers over Kerala.. IMD report of 28-May-10

Rainfall occurred at many places over Kerala. Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep and Coastal Andhrapradesh . Dry weather prevailed over Karnataka, Telangana and Rayalaseema.

Salem and Mancompu (Alapuzha dt.) recorded a heavy rainfall of 10 and 7 centimetres respectively .

The other chief amounts of rainfall recorded in Centimetres are:

Virudhunagar  6, Mavelikkara (Alapuzha dt.) 5, Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari dt), Sendamangalam (Namakkal dt.) and Varkala (Thiruvananthapuram dt.) 4 each, Mangalapuram and Tiruchengode (both Namakkal dt.), Sivakasi and Neyyattinkara (Thiruvananthapuram dt.) 3 each, Pechiparai and Thuckalay (both Kanyakumari dt.), Rasipuram (Namakkal dt.) , Tiruchirapalli Airport, Srivilliputhur (Virudhunagar dt.), Cherthala (Alapuzha dt.) , Thiruvananthapuram, Thiruvananthapuram Airport and Nedumangad (Thiruvananthapuram dt.)  2 each and Yercaud, Padallur and Vembavur (both Perambalur dt.), Marungapuri (Tiruchirapalli dt.), Devala (Nilgiris dt.), Sathur (Virudhunagar dt.), Vythiri (Wayanad dt.), Thrissur, Kunnamkulam (Thrissur dt.), CIAL Kochi, Peermedu (Idukki dt.), Konni (Pathanamthitta dt.) Kollam, Minicoy and Vishakapattinam  1 each.

 Heat wave conditions prevailed over parts of Coastal Andhra Pradesh

 On Friday, the maximum temperature rose at one or two places over Telangana , South coastal Andhrapradesh, fell markedly at one or two places over North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, fell at one or two places over Interior Tamilnadu and changed little elsewhere over the region.

 They were largely above normal at many places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, markedly above normal at one or two places over Telangana, Coastal Karnataka, North coastal Tamilnadu, rest coastal Andhrapradesh, appreciably above normal at a few places over Kerala, interior Tamilnadu rest north coastal Tamilnadu , North interior Karnataka, rest Telangana, Rayalaseema, above normal at one or two places over rest Coastal Karnataka, South interior Karnataka , rest Rayalaseema, rest interior Tamilnadu , below normal at one or two places over South Coastal Tamil Nadu and were generally normal over rest of the region.

 Number of stations recorded the highest maximum temperature of 45 degree Celsius in the region.

On 28-May, highest maximum temperature of 45.9°C was recorded at Shivpuri (Madhya Pradesh).

Dust raising winds would prevail over Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Delhi and W est Uttar Pradesh during next 2 days.

Scattered rain/thundershowers would occur over Kerala and Coastal Karnataka during next 24 hours and increase thereafter.

Maximum temperatures have fallen by 4 - 7°C over Jammu and Kashmir Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi,U.P & n. coast A.P

Chennai - Temperature goin up again.. 41.4°C at 2:02pm

@GopinathRavi >> Follow our tweets for latest Chennai temperature or visit www.indianweatherman.com

@Ernestnk >> Follow our tweets for latest Chennai temperature or visit www.indianweatherman.com... now its 41.2 deg C

@patimrinal >> Follow our tweets for latest Chennai temperature or visit www.indianweatherman.com

RT @patimrinal: Banagalore is getting hotter... it too hot outside... never felt thi shot since I came back from Chennai...

RT @GopinathRavi: back to the boiling pot.. chennai

Chennai - present wind direction is W-S-W... soon it should change to E-S-E .. may be in another 1 hr.. till then enjoy the.. 41.2°C

Chennai - is baking.. if the Sea breeze doesn't set in another 30 min, then the temp will touch 43 deg C before 3:30pm.

Chennai - ** All time high for this year 2010 ** .. records a high temp. just now .. 41.2°C (1:51pm)

@saranjith >>> Keep tracking www.indianweatherman.com or follow our tweets for Latest on Monsoon.

RT @arunkumaranusuy: Enjoying in trivandrum, its raining here and the climate is to good... (1:49pm)

RT @saranjith: soaked! (@ museum, trivandrum) (1:24pm)

RT @Dhan_an_JAY: @DiFo87 Good Morning :):) enjoy Bangalore .. here back TRIVANDRUM is surviving stupid rainy weather :):) (12:29pm)

RT @nikhilnarayanan: Is this the Monsoon? Who cares if it's pre Monsoon. I'm getting drenched in Trivandrum. (12:28pm)

@sulus88 >>> Keep tracking www.indianweatherman.com or follow our tweets for Latest on Monsoon.

@jkizhakkel >>> Keep tracking www.indianweatherman.com or follow our tweets for Latest on Monsoon.

1pm, Showers from Arabian sea approaching South Kerala coast... while an isolated Thunder cell seen over N-E Jharkhand.. http://ow.ly/i/1O5k

RT @Akku36: Rain rain cool day kerala (6:37am)

@Sukanyeah >> Any rain now? pls update ur location in Kerala? If possible post a snap shot of weather from ur place. Thanks

RT @Sukanyeah: its heavy rain out here in kerala. i am enjoying it. wish my man was also with me. (8:31am)

RT @rajnair84: @ShashiTharoor the symphony of rain....in kerala http://ping.fm/hLVng

RT @hashkerala: RT @Arunshah : Trvlng in ksrtc to alpy...light rain in chingavanam... weather kerala (10:33am)

RT @szri: Raining Sporadically.Trivandrum Weather today is Fab. (8:05am)

Chemicals in plastic may pose cancer risk ... http://ow.ly/1RtcN

IMD said that the ‘heat low' has established over the northwestern parts of the country to facilitate S-W monsoon.

IMD models show strengthening of lower level westerlies with increase in depth, and quantity of moisture along the west coast.

It is expected that the Arabian sea vortex would help strengthen the southwesterly winds along the west coast... http://ow.ly/1Rt6C

IMD sees monsoon onset ‘around Monday' ... http://ow.ly/1Rt5a

IMD sees monsoon onset ‘around Monday'

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala would occur ‘around May 31'.
The IMD had, on May 14, issued the forecast for onset of monsoon over Kerala on May 30 with a model error of 4 days.
It based its latest outlook on interpretation of latest meteorological conditions and also guidance of numerical weather models.

VORTEX LIKELY
There is also good possibility for the development of a monsoon onset vortex (a small but intense low-pressure system), off the Kerala coast during this period.
But the movement of the vortex is predicted to be away from the west coast, in a north-northwesterly direction, the IMD said.
(Numerical weather model predictions seemed to suggest rapid development of this system into a likely cyclonic storm.
These predictions showed the system spinning away into the west-northwest direction but posited half-way into north Arabian Sea by June 4 up to which forecasts were available.)
Westerlies may strengthen
It is expected that the vortex would help strengthen the southwesterly winds along the west coast, the IMD said.
Numerical models indicate possibility of strengthening of the cross equatorial monsoon flow along the Indian longitudes.
The IMD operational models also show strengthening of lower level westerlies with increase in depth, northward extension and quantity of moisture content along the west coast.

STRONG WESTERLIES
Models are indicating development of organised convection over the South Arabian Sea from Sunday onwards.
Referring to two major monsoon facilitators, the IMD said that the ‘heat low' has established over the northwestern parts of the country.
In this manner, the north-south pressure gradient (high in south to low over northwest) has strengthened, particularly over the Bay of Bengal.
There is also possibility of further advance of monsoon up to coastal Karnataka and southern parts of Tamil Nadu by around June 1.
Forecast from various global models indicates better circulation features conducive for monsoon during June 4 to 10 with strengthening of the cross equatorial flow over south Arabian Sea.

MONSOON ADVANCE
Models are also indicating increase of rainfall over the west coast of India during this week, the IMD outlook said.
Under these meteorological conditions, there is also possibility of advance of monsoon up to south Konkan and Goa along the west coast and also over parts of the Northeastern States.

Meanwhile on Friday, satellite pictures made available by the US National Weather Service at 5.15 p.m. showed convection mostly concentrated to east-central Arabian Sea.
Some of the clouds streaked across adjoining east and southeast Arabian Sea reaching into Kerala and adjoining south Arabian Sea.
A number of international models had already hinted the cyclogenesis in the Arabian Sea over the next few days, close on the heels of monsoon onset over Kerala coast.
Some of these models suggested a changed track for the brewing system, which could first approach the Kerala-Karnataka coast initially.
The system might just toy with the coast by May 31-June 1, before shifting gears and start tracking north along the west coast.
It would then start re-curving north-northwest as models suggested earlier, and head into the north Arabian Sea by June 4.
But from here, models tend to disagree with the likely track of the storm in view of the arrival of a westerly trough from the northwest that would cut across Pakistan into north Arabian Sea.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has in its update on Friday suggested that the westerly trough would ‘appropriate' the storm and steer it towards the east.
This was the case with Cyclone ‘Laila' that hit the Andhra Pradesh coast last week, before being steered north-northeast by a passing westerly trough that dipped into central India and adjoining Bay of Bengal.
In this manner, the ECMWF forecast template, the farthest available on Friday, took the system tracking to the east from north Arabian Sea for a likely landfall over southwest Gujarat by June 7.
The agency had initially suggested that the system would continue to track north-northwest and cross the Oman coast in a replay of year 2007 when Super Cyclone Gonu.

Monsoon onset likely in next 3-4 days (as of 27-May-10)

Conditions are becoming favourable for the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala during the next three to four days.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Thursday cited numerical weather predictions to project the formation of an upper air cyclonic circulation over southeast Arabian Sea during the next two to three days.
Meanwhile, a leading US-based forecaster has said that the present MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation wave) signature does not favour full monsoon onset over India until at least a few days after June 10.
System strength
An MJO wave travels periodically from west to east in the higher atmosphere and has alternating ‘dry' (suppressed rain) and ‘wet' (rainy weather) phases. It has a major influence on ground weather, especially during monsoon.
While an upper air system is a good augury for the onset of the seasonal rains along the Kerala coast, there are apprehensions that the system descend to the lower levels and start strengthening.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) had indicated on Wednesday that the system may attain cyclonic strength early next month. The formation of a cyclone during the onset period is bad enough thanks to its capacity to rally entire moisture around itself and leave hardly anything for the mainland.
What is worse is the model prediction suggesting a north-northwest track to the system and away from the Kerala coast. A few models, though, suggested a calibrated eastward movement to the Kerala/Karnataka coast.
A majority of the models seemed to suggest that the system could be declared a cyclone by June 2 over east-central Arabian Sea. In a track reminiscent of the Super Cyclone Gonu of year 2007, this system might track further north-northwest and make an eventual landfall over Oman/Gulf of Eden.

WARMEST POOL
What will apparently propel the system is the presence of a very warm (31 to 32 degree Celsius) pool of seawater lying north-northwest from east-central Arabian Sea towards the Oman coast.
While the ECMWF has retained its outlook, a few others also have kept a watch for a possible system formation on Thursday.
Among them are the Global Forecasting System (GFS) of the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre, the Canadian Meteorological Centre and the Global Forecasting System (GFS) model of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).
According to the Tropical Extended Area Prediction System of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, winds around the southeast Arabian Sea represented a smorgasbord of southwesterly, westerly and northwesterly flows. This area of unsettled weather would now see increasingly organised convergence accompanied by convection prior to formation of the upper air cyclonic circulation.


The US-based forecaster was of the view that the present MJO phase does not favour full monsoon onset over India until at least a few days after June 10.
The southwest coast had wasted a golden opportunity during the last active phase of the MJO wave when the southwesterly flows precipitated the onset over Sri Lanka. The ‘miss' was occasioned by the spinning up of cyclone ‘Laila' in the Bay of Bengal that mopped up available moisture feed and rained it over Andhra Pradesh and Orissa.
The next active phase of the MJO wave would not set in before June 10, which would also coincide with the blow-over of the projected cyclone in the Arabian Sea.
According to the US-based forecaster, equatorial Indian Ocean basin is presently in the suppressed phase of the MJO whereas Southeast Asia, the Bay of Bengal, and parts of the West Pacific are presently in the active phase.
Suppressed MJO convection is likely to progress northward across India into early June, with the next active phase developing over the equatorial Indian Ocean not before June 10.
Such a pattern would not likely result in enhanced rainfall averaged over India until after June 15. The subsequent couple of weeks could be quite wet over the monsoon region, according to him.
The outgoing long-wave radiation projections, a proxy for the presence of clouds, also suggest that the heaviest rainfall at that time would favour eastern India and the Bay of Bengal.

If the predicted Arabian sea Cyclone/depression forms, Is it going to be a Monsoon spoiler over Kerala coast ???.. http://ow.ly/i/1NYs

GFS :: On 31-May, the predicted Arabian sea cyclone / depression will intensify and lay over N. Lakshadweep islands.. http://ow.ly/i/1NYq

Nagercoil - After medium intermittent showers overnight and into early morning. Now its cloudy.

9am, S-W monsoon organizing well ... showers over south kerala coast continues ... http://ow.ly/i/1NXT

GFS :: Arabian sea circulation will stay near Kerala for 2 days before moving North along the coast on 2-Jun... http://ow.ly/i/1N7i

GFS :: Predicts a circulation or Low pressure system forming just along Kerala coast and over Lakshadweep on 31-May.. http://ow.ly/i/1N7c

3:30pm, isolated thunder cells over Munnar & Kodaikanal mountains, and over South Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/1N71

3pm, Sharp showers continue over South Kerala almost thru the Day today, other than that very less Thunder cells visible http://ow.ly/i/1N6V

Chennai - Today Sea breeze has set in early and temp. now 3:56pm is 34.7°C, compared to past 2 days, it was above 40 deg at this time

Chennai - Again records more than 40 deg C... 40.9°C (1:56pm)..

GFS :: Heavy monsoon showers predicted for South Kerala and Kanyakumari in Tamilnadu from 29-May... http://ow.ly/i/1MZy

Heat wave in Ahmedabad: Over 50 people dead already‎... http://ow.ly/1R0XT

Dozens die as heat wave bakes India‎ ... http://ow.ly/1R0WW

TAKE A LOOK-India's monsoon on schedule after cyclone Laila‎ ... http://ow.ly/1R0Wx

Heavy showers over South Kerala on 26-May

 Conditions are becoming favorable for onset of Southwest monsoon over Kerala during next 3 to 4 days.

Rainfall occurred at most places over Lakshadweep and at a few places over Kerala and Coastal Karnataka . Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu. Mainly dry weather prevailed over South Interior Karnataka and dry weather prevailed over Andhrapradesh and North Interior Karnataka.

 The chief amounts of rainfall recorded in Centimetres are:

Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari dt.) 6, Thalasssery (Kannur dt.) and Kottayam 4 each, Kannur and Vadakara (Kozhikode dt.) 3 each, Thiruvananthapuram Airport 2 and Thuckalay (Kanyakumari dt), Mulki (Dakshina Kannada dt.), Piravom (Ernakulam dt.), Mavelikara (Alapuzha dt.), Konni (Pathanamthitta dt.), Kollam, Aryankavu (Kollam dt.), Thiruvananthapuram, Nedumangad (Thiruvananthapuram dt.) and Kavarathi 1 each.

     Heat wave conditions prevailed over parts of Telangana and central parts of Coastal Andhrapradesh.

    On Wednesday , the maximum temperature rose appreciably at many places over North coastal Andhrapradesh, rose at many places over Kerala , fell at many places over Telengana, at one or two places over North interior Karnataka , North Coastal Tamilnadu and changed little elsewhere over the region.

     They were appreciably to markedly above normal at many places over Telengana, at a few places over Coastal Andhrapradesh, Coastal Karnataka,  Kerala, North Tamilnadu, at  one or two places over Rayalaseema , above normal at a few places over rest Tamilnadu, at one or two places over coastal Karnataka, rest Kerala and were generally normal over rest of the region.

Ramagundam recorded the highest maximum temperature of 46 degree Celsius in the region.

from IMDchennai

Chennai - Temperature slowly peaking today .. 37.9°C at 12:21pm

Rain map of 27-May, shows showers over J&K, Himachal, Uttrakhand, N-E states and Kerala.. http://ow.ly/i/1MZn

Fall in maximum temperatures by 2-3°C over northwest and adjoining central India and parts of east India during next 2-3 days

Maximum temperatures have fallen by 2-5 °C over parts of West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Assam, Meghalaya, North Rajasthan, Punjab and J&K

On 27-May, highest maximum temperature of 47.6°C was recorded at Bikaner (Rajasthan).

11:30am, Heavy showers over Jammu & Kashmir .. http://ow.ly/i/1MZi

11:30am, Heavy sharp showers continue to lash central and South Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/1MZi

Conditions are becoming favourable for onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala during next 3-4 days

An upper air cyclonic circulation may form over southeast Arabian Sea during next 2-3 days

Nagercoil - had showers overnight again.

Western ghats over kuttallam is active with thunder cells .. http://ping.fm/X9weW

On way from virudunagar to kovilpatti , we can see lots of mini thunder cells over western ghats. Meaning - showers over kerala!!

Strengthening monsoon winds

There is every hope that monsoonal winds may get strength within another 48 hours.

This is GFS model prediction.

"Somali Jet" update 2:30pm... It's consolidating and nearing S-W coast of India, very much strong over Maldives.. http://ow.ly/i/1M5o

5:30pm, Heavy showers over S. central Kerala continues for the past 2 hrs .. http://ow.ly/i/1M55

5:30pm, Showers over Kashmir, Uttarakhand, N-E M.P and over W.central Orissa ... http://ow.ly/i/1M55

Chennai - Touched 40.9°C (4:02pm) and now 6:22pm its 32.1°C ... coold down drastically due to good sea breeze.

RT @Ansalz: Rain, The rain season started in Kerala (1:28pm)

3pm, Thunder cells over N.central Chatisgarh... and showers over Munnar & Kodaikanal mountains... http://ow.ly/i/1LYC

Chennai - Temp. now 3:39pm its 40.8°C

Cross equtorial wind near Somali is NOT so impressive ... http://ow.ly/1Qy0c

Chennai - temp. now 3:18pm is 40.6°C ... NO sea breeze yet.

Chennai - now 2:54pm is 40.5°C

Monsoon makes no headway in 6 days - govt ... http://ow.ly/1QxjO

Cross equtorial wind

Cross equtorial wind near Somali is NOT so impresive. There is no turning towards west coast of India, but heading towards North East Arabian Sea.

Goa 27052010/0000Z RS reports -winds from 300 Degree /10 knots at 850 hPa.

But in the Bay the cross equtorial winds are relatively stronger. Interesting.

Rainfall data from 1-Jan-2010 to 26-May-2010

TN toppers from 1.1.10 to 26.05.10
--------------------------------------------------- Pechiparai (Kanyakumari dt) – 50 cm
Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari dt) – 38 cm
Thalli (Krishnagiri dt) – 37 cm
Kodaikanal (Dindigul dt)– 31 cm
Boothapandi (Kanyakumari dt) – 31 cm
Thuckalay (Kanyakumari dt) – 30 cm
Andipatti (Theni dt) – 27 cm
Valparai (Coimbatore dt) – 25 cm

India toppers from 1.1.10 to 26.05.10
---------------------------------------------------
Cherrapunji 481 cm
Silchar 150 cm
Passighat 146 cm
Dibrugarh 118 cm
Itanagar 105 cm
Dhubri 99 cm
Gangtok 97 cm
North Lakhimpur 92 cm
Coochbehar 82 cm
Guwahati 73 cm
Lengpui 72 cm

posted by Pradeep

Chennai - temperature now 12:16pm is 38.4°C

Rain map of 26-May, Shows widespread showers over ALL eastern India, and all along S-W coast (Kerala) .. http://ow.ly/i/1LQy

Forecast : Increase in rainfall activity over Lakshadweep, Kerala and south Karnataka.

GOOD NEWS : Fall in maximum temperatures by 3-4°C over northwest and adjoining central India and parts of east India during next 2-3 days.

western disturbance is likely to affect northwest India during next 2-3 days

An induced cyclonic circulation lies over central Pakistan and adjoining north Rajasthan and Punjab in lower levels

On 26-May, Highest maximum temperature of 49.3°C was recorded at Sri Ganganagar (Rajasthan)

Severe heat wave conditions are prevailing over isolated pockets of west Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab.

10am, Showers subdued over Kerala and S.central Arabian sea is getting active .. http://ow.ly/i/1LO7

Monsoon-2009 , A Snap from Kerala... http://ow.ly/i/1LO0

RT @hashkerala: RT @abhilashram : rain lovers kerala, kochi
http://tiny.cc/350sz

RT @sadu_arun @Aashkey all reporting rain early morning, I'm already soaked. rain to whole Kerala! Time to build the Arc. (6:53am)

RT @drwiz: Reached a little earlier than I thought, the rain doesn't look good but. Trivandrum (7:17am)

Kerala is in for widespread heavy showers starting from Friday evening.. http://ow.ly/i/1LNL

@HuzefaKapadia >>> Follow our tweets for regular weather updates, forecasts & reports from India. And visit www.indianweatherman.com

@HuzefaKapadia >> Pls update weather from your location. If possible upload a snapshot as well. Thanks

@HuzefaKapadia >> Kerala is in for heavy showers from Friday... Keep tracking us!. You may need our services. Thanks

RT @dericklivera: @meerasapra 45 degrees :O then yu are cooked its rainy here in cochin (4:02pm)

Massive S-W monsoon showers forecast for S. Kerala on 31-May .. http://ow.ly/i/1KYf ... to 3-Jun... http://ow.ly/i/1KYh

Chennai - now 4:40pm is 35.7°C

Chennai - Take a look at past 1 week temperature graph .. http://ow.ly/i/1KWX

Chennai - At last Wind direction switching to S-E.. temp. will go down fast in another 1 hr.

@PPrakash >> Our data is direct from Oregon Scientific weather station.

3:30pm, Thunder showers over Central Jharkand, N-E Chatisgarh, S. N-E states, and some showers over Kerala.. http://ow.ly/i/1KWM

@udzi >> Chennai just reached the TOP heat of the year 2010 , 40.9°C (4:00pm)

Chennai - Sea breeze have not set in yet... that's why the Temperature is still holding at 40 deg C... It's over 2 hrs now.

Chennai - OOps just recorded 40.9°C (4:00pm)

Very heavy showers over central and South kerala on 25-May... http://ow.ly/1Q1jg

IMD chennai report for 25-May

Rainfall occurred at many places over Kerala and at a few places over Lakshadweep. Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu and Coastal Karnataka. Mainly dry weather prevailed over coastal Andhra Pradesh and South Interior Karnataka and dry weather prevailed over Rayalaseema, Telangana and North Interior Karnataka.

            .

The following stations recorded very heavy-to-heavy rainfall in Centimetres:

Aluva (Ernakulam dt) 14, Kanjirapally (Kottayam dt) 8 and Kochi airport and Kottayam 7 each.

The other chief amounts of rainfall recorded in Centimetres:

Aminidivi 5, Kozhikode, Piravom (Ernakulam dt), Kayamkulam (Alapuzha dt) 4 each, Vadakara (Kozhikode dt), Haripad (Alapuzha dt), Vaikom (Kottayam dt) 3 each, Pechiparai (Kanyakumari dt), Perumbavoor (Ernakulam dt), Chengannur (Alapuzha dt) and Minicoy 2 each and Kuzhithurai and Boothapandi (both Kanyakumari dt), Devala (Nilgiris dt), Vadakkancherry (Thrissur dt), CIAL Kochi, Mancompu (Alapuzha dt), Kozha (Kottayam dt), Punalur, Thiruvananthapuram, Thiruvananthapuram airport, Nedumangad (Thiruvananthapuram dt) and Mulki (Dakshina Kannada dt) 1 each.

 Heat wave conditions prevailed over parts of Telangana.

 On Tuesday, the maximum temperature rose appreciably at one or two places over Tamil Nadu, rose at one or two places over Coastal Andhrapradesh, Telangana, fell at one or two places over Coastal Karnataka and changed little elsewhere over the region.

     They were  markedly above normal at one or two places over Telangana, coastal Andhra Pradesh, North Coastal Tamil Nadu, Coastal Karnataka, appreciably above normal at one or two places over rest Tamil Nadu, rest coastal Andhra Pradesh, rest Coastal Karnataka, below normal at one or two places over South interior Karnataka, Kerala and were generally normal over rest of the region.

 Ramagundam, Nizamabad and Adilabad recorded the highest maximum temperature of 47 degree Celsius in the region.

Rain map of 25-May .. http://ow.ly/i/1KVK

IMD :: Increase in rainfall activity over Lakshadweep, Kerala and south Karnataka.

Heat wave conditions would continue over parts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and interior Maharashtra during next 48 hours.

Rain on 25-May, Silchar-12, Agartala-9, Kailashahar-8, Cochin and Kottayam-7 each, Malda, Long Island and Aminindevi-5 CM.

On 25-May, highest maximum temperature of 48.4°C was recorded at Kota (Rajasthan).

RT @ullasd: Monsoon trawling ban in Kerala to begin on June 15 http://bit.ly/aZHcfi ( ini meenum kittilla)

Chennai - 3:30pm and still its 40.5°C

Advance of the monsoon into mainland India has been stuck as seasonal winds failed to orient and lagged in speed and vertical profile.

Monsoon conditions :: winds need to turn southwesterly to westerly over the southwest coast over a height of 5-6 km above mean sea level.

US National Weather Services is of the view that the rains would spread along the entire west coast during the week ending May 31.

Monsoon stuck over Sri Lanka as wind speed flags

The advance of the South-West monsoon into mainland India has been stuck at the penultimate port of call in Sri Lanka as seasonal winds failed to orient themselves and lagged in speed and vertical profile.
Winds are southwesterly just beyond the peninsular tip, tending to become westerly to the immediate north.
What prevents their further streamlining is the incursion of dry northwesterly winds from the north Arabian Sea.

RAIN IN KERALA
The southwest coast, mainly Kerala, has been witnessing widespread to scattered thundershowers over the past few days, triggered by the limited churn set up by the southwesterly, westerly and northwesterly flows in the southeast Arabian Sea.
Ideally, winds need to turn southwesterly to westerly over the southwest coast over a height of 5-6 km above mean sea level.
But half way up, the winds are still easterly over the peninsula, according to observations by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).
The Global Forecasting System (GFS) of the Climate Prediction System of the US National Weather Services is of the view that the rains would spread along the entire west coast during the week ending May 31.
Meanwhile, the Busan, South Korea-based Asia-Pacific Climate Centre (APCC) has come out with a June-July-August precipitation forecast that jells with the ‘overall good monsoon' outlook maintained by peer models across the world.
In the operative part of the forecast published on Tuesday, the APCC said that ‘areas of above normal rainfall lie over north India, East Asia covering eastern China, Korea and southern Japan.'
This is suggestive of a possibility of the intensification of the monsoon trough over north India and Changma over the Korean peninsula, the APCC said.

The build-up in northwest India ahead of the onset of monsoon is apace with intense heating of the plains taking place to levels not seen in the immediate past. The heating helps establish the ‘heat low' over northwest India, which is a crucial meteorological parameter facilitating the orderly progress of monsoon into the mainland. The ‘heat low' sets up the pressure and temperature gradient relative to the higher values over peninsular south where the monsoon rains set in. This pressure and temperature differential drives the system to the north of the country.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Tuesday said that severe heat wave conditions were prevailing over isolated pockets of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Heat wave conditions prevailed over most parts of the rest of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh and over many parts of Vidarbha and over isolated pockets of Punjab, Haryana, West Uttar Pradesh and Telangana.The highest maximum temperature of 48.2 deg Celsius was recorded at Kota in Rajasthan during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning.
Satellite imagery showed convective (thundershower-causing) clouds over parts of central and southeast Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, Kerala and south Arabian Sea. Forecast until Friday spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread rain or thundershowers over Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands while they would be scattered over coastal Karnataka.
Towards the north, a western disturbance is forecast to bring scattered rain or thundershowers over Jammu and Kashmir and isolated over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand from Thursday.
Scattered dust storm or thunderstorms have been forecast also over Haryana, Delhi, Punjab, north Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.

Mumbai - Fifth monsoon with no radar ... http://ow.ly/1Q0Cp

Uttara Kannada gears up for monsoon ... http://ow.ly/1Q0BS

Chennai - Touched a max of 40.6°C (2:34pm) .. seems it'll not go beyond that.

RT @indyank: @weatherofindia Last week, I was in aus -one of the very few countries having winter May and now am in chennai from -1 to 40+

New threats to children of cyclone-hit Andhra Pradesh ... http://ow.ly/1PZQy

RT @19061980: @weatherofindia its NOT raining rite now trivandrum .u jst got urself lucky wid d picchar as well : http://ping.fm/mQFxh

@19061980 >> Thanks for that update. If you are goin to be in Kerala for Monsoon season. Pls update us regularly with REPORT and PICS.

RT @kintakitchu: Kerala is great . . Welcomed me with blistering rain . . . (Kerala is the only place in India receiving rain Now 2pm)

Chennai - Wind direction is from W-S-W... it should change to S-E or East for temperature to go down. It'll happen around 3:30pm.

Chennai - "40 again" ... 40.2°C (1:58pm)

@19061980 >> Is it raining there now? Pls update ur location inKerala. And if possible upload a Snap shot. Thanks

RT @sibi_john: @nitinsunny yep heavy rain in kochi last night .....seems Monsoon Has hit kerala

Chennai - Temp. 38.7°C (12:37pm) and rising fast.. it'll peak from 1:30pm to 3:30pm. After that the sea breeze will cool things down.!

@devswonderland >> we don't have a person and AWS on the ground to report it LIVE... soon it'll be done. Thanks for your interest.

11:30am, Rains has subsided over S. Kerala.. and are we going to have a circulation in S.central Arabian sea??? .. http://ow.ly/i/1KPs

Chennai - now 12:22pm is 38.0°C

@maradhimanni >>> Follow our tweets for regular weather updates, forecasts & reports from India. And visit www.indianweatherman.com

Nagercoil - bids adieu to plastic - District Collector explains how they did it! ... http://ow.ly/1PY0E

Indian monsoon winds pause, but seen reviving ... http://ow.ly/1PXZF

Heavy rain in Kanyakumari district for the past 4 days ... http://ow.ly/1PXYU

RT @rajugana: RT @weatherofindia: Baroda-9.30 AM - for the first time in recent months - passing clouds gather in the sky, heavy wind - west

Ganga Nagar Head Bay Trough may form

From Ganga Nagar to Head bay the [monsoon] trough line may slowly form. As pointed out by somebody that the remenants of cyclone LAILA drew more [monsoonal] winds and is enabling formation of pressure gradient in the east coast/ Bay. [It is presumption only]

7pm, Thunder cells over Central & N-E Orissa, S. Kerala coast, Central and N. Tamilnadu... http://ow.ly/i/1K7k

RT @Monsoonexpress: The rain, fish fry and the scenic beauty... that's what I mae of Guwahati so far and I am loving it!:))

Rainfall over South Kerala and South Extreme Tamilnadu on 24-May.. Varkala (Thiruvananthapuram dt) 6, Thuckalay (Kanyakumari dt) 5 CM

5:30pm, Showers has become subdued over S. Kerala, while a lone Thunder cell can be seen over W. Bengal & Uttarakand... http://ow.ly/i/1K2M

RT @manoj_kn1: it's raining here in Cochin, Kerala, India now (4:34pm)

RT @asutoshjg: It's raining all the time here in Trivandrum. I'm really lovin' it. (3:53pm)

RT @bjuvincent: Trivandrum is showered by rain...............getting cool day by day........this year's rain is little bit early... (3:57pm)

Chennai - Wind direction slowly switching to S-E... temp. now 4:07pm is 35.7°C

Chennai - The present S-W wind will not cool things, in fact it'll be HOT... When the sea breeze (from East) sets in the temp. will go down.

Chennai - temp. race is still on .. now 3:09pm, 40.5°C

Chennai - Heat pump is still ON... maintaining above 40 deg C for the past 1 hr.. now 2:50pm, 40.5°C

2pm, No thunder cells yet over India, Sharp showers over S. Kerala continue, Last remnant of LAILA vanishes over N. Bay. http://ow.ly/i/1JUe

RT @chennaiweather: Why IMD is not declaring monsoon in Kerela? when it is raining in Kerela? Are they waiting for their date to come true?

Chennai - Another high temp. just now... 40.8°C (2:40pm)

RT @Gai3pradeep: @karthinair Nights are always cooler in Kerala! Here i dont step out of office even for a short break!:)

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Rain map of 24-May, shows .. showers over N-E states, Orissa and over S. Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/1JTQ

No large change is likely in maximum temperatures over northwest and adjoining central India during next 48 hours

A fresh western disturbance is likely to affect northwest India from 27th to 29th

Incursion of moisture is taking place over northeastern states under the influence of strong southerly/southwesterly winds

Rain on 24-May, Port Blar-6, Guwahati, Chaparmukh & Punalur-4, Shantiniketan, Bankura, North Lakhimpur, Tezpur, Bhubaneswar, Kottayam-3 CM

On 24-May, highest maximum temperature of 48.2°C has been recorded at Kota (Rajasthan)... Chennai far behind..!!

Severe heat wave conditions are prevailing over isolated pockets of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh

Chennai - temp. now 2:25pm is 40.2°C

RT @jobinVJ: Monsoon strtng in kerala. Alex Frater's 'chasing the monsoon' z a v.gd rain read.

Chennai - WOW... temperature touched 40 ... 40.5°C (2:15pm) ... 1st 40 of the Year 2010.

Cyclone over Arabian sea will disrupt the monsoon dynamics along Kerala coast.. http://ow.ly/1Ps5O

Laila system is not seen as intensifying appreciably to exert further “pull” pressure on the monsoon along Kerala.

Prof Paul Roundy at the University of Albany has been alluding to the development of a system in the southeast and east-central Arabian Sea.

Cyclone formation and its strengthening just before the onset of monsoon could have an adverse impact over dynamics along the Kerala coast.

US NCEP showed a calibrated rise of rain activity along the southwest coast of India during the course of this week.

IRI for Climate at Columbia University saw a spurt in rainfall around the extreme southern peninsular point around 27-May

Churn in Arabian Sea makes forecasters sit up

A remnant circulation from cyclone Laila has waded into the Bay of Bengal and set up a fresh low-pressure area on Monday.
The system is not seen as intensifying appreciably to exert further “pull” pressure on the monsoon, currently regrouping over the southeast Arabian Sea.
This part of the Arabian Sea is showing signs of some churn, but would need to be watched for likely formation of a system and its subsequent strengthening.

ONSET DYNAMICS


System formation and its strengthening just before the onset of monsoon could have an adverse impact over associated dynamics along the Kerala coast, as witnessed in the past few years.
A strong system (or an untimely cyclone) in the Arabian Sea before the monsoon flows have settled into the ideal pattern could see itself being driven north either along the west coast or away from it, and rob mainland India of precious moisture.
Otherwise, conditions are evolving for the onset over the next two-day period, according to Dr C.K. Rajan, Professor-in-charge, Chair for Climate Change at the Kochi-based School of Communication and Management Studies (SCMS).
The system behaviour would become clear in 12 to 24 hours after the Laila remnant in the Bay expectedly dies a natural death and its impact on the monsoon flow wanes, Dr Rajan told Business Line.
Prof Paul Roundy at the University of Albany has been alluding to the development of a system in the southeast and east-central Arabian Sea and, in the latest update of May 20, he has maintained the outlook.

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said that satellite imagery showed convective clouds over parts of northeast, east-central and adjoining west-central and southeast Bay of Bengal, the Northeastern States, Gangetic West Bengal, Kerala and south Arabian Sea.
The satellite picture update for aviators put up by the International Civil Aviation Organisation also showed convective clouds massing around the region late on Monday evening.
Winds in the south Arabian Sea are southwesterly becoming westerly to the north of 5 degree Latitude, and this wind profile would need to extend north to the 10 degree N latitude for onset conditions to generate.
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction showed a calibrated rise of rain activity along the southwest coast during the course of this week.

RAIN SPURT

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University saw a spurt in rainfall around the extreme southern peninsular point around Wednesday and Thursday.
Meanwhile, the IMD said in its forecasts valid until Thursday that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Kerala, Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers have been forecast also over the Northeastern States during this period as moisture incursion continues under the effect of strong southwesterly flows from the Bay of Bengal.
A western disturbance is expected to cause isolated rain or thundershowers over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand during the next 24 hours.
Isolated dust storm or thunderstorms may occur over Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan in the northwest and over east India and Karnataka.

South west monsoon and Somali Jet. ... http://ow.ly/1PrUK

@k2a3nu >> Where in Kerala? pls update ur location in Kerala and if possible upload snap shot. Thanks

RT @k2a3nu: it's monsoon bak in kerala.. :) after the tiresom sum , we finaly hav rain .. :) (1:24pm)

India Weather Bureau Assessing Cyclone Impact on Monsoon Rains ... http://ow.ly/1PrDV

Morning, Showers continue over S. Kerala .. http://ow.ly/i/1JPk

Just to inform this startling reading at Nagpur today Morning (Tuesday, 25th. May).
Morning 5.30 am: 36c. Minimum 35.2c !! 

Somali Jet.

AS on date [24.05.2010/1200 UTC)] the onset of Somali jet is NOT prominent. But Somali Jet has characteristics that it may abruptly become jet near Somali coast and the strong winds will be felt at 850hPa level. This is Low Level Jet. The onset of LLJ will occur two or three days prior to the onset of SW monsoon over Indian west coast. The Minicoy wind will be more indicative. No wind data available.[Radiosonde]

Today's (Monday,24th.) Readings:
Hottest in Asia: 51c in Nawabshah, Larkana and Jacobabad.
Hottest in India: 48.2c in Kota, and 48.1c at Ganganagar.
And now , the real hot stuff ! 
Hottest Night: 34.4c(+8c) in Jaipur and 33.5c in Ajmer.


Today's day in Mumbai was at 36.0c Colaba, and at 34.8c S'cruz. .Night was a gruelling 29.3c. This week will be partly cloudy and sweaty. Nights are getting to the 30c forecasted yesterday :)
No rain expected till Sunday, at least. 
Monsoon analysis @http://rajesh26.blogspot.com

Monsoon is 24hrs away for Cochin (Kochi).. http://ow.ly/1P6wK

IMD has not declared S-W monsoon over South Kerala... 100% S. Kerala is getting good first monsoon showers at this time.

7:30pm, North Bay is calming down..while S-W monsoon is progressing into North Bay.. http://ow.ly/i/1Jab

7:30pm, Isolated thunder squall over E.central Rajasthan .. http://ow.ly/i/1Jab

7:30pm, Heavy Thunder Showers over Orissa & Jharkand Border.. http://ow.ly/i/1Jab

7:30pm, Heavy showers reported over South Kerala and over Kanyakumari district of extreme South Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/1Jab

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RT @Monsoonexpress: Will soon bring u all the stories of the rains on the monsoon express.kerala getng soaked while delhi burns in the heat

Kerala to woo tourists with special monsoon package ... http://ow.ly/1P5gm

RT @joyajith: Cloudy overcast day in trivandrum today feel more like sleeping than working

RT @vijaysanker: rain rain and raining again in trivandrum (7:43pm)

Nagercoil - Heavy and steady showers now 7:36pm from 5:30pm. Perfect S-W monsoon showers.

RT @NaghmaNDTV: Went to a beautiful green village bathed in rain ,close to trvndrm.one can hear the clouds and the rain drop

RT @Monsoonexpress: Went to a beautiful green village bathed in rain ,close to trvndrm.one can hear the clouds and the rain drop n the music

All India Rainfall data from 1-Jan-2010 to 23-May-2010

TN toppers from 1.1.10 to 23.5.2010
------------------------------------------------- Pechiparai – 44 cm
Thalli – 37 cm
Kuzhithurai – 33 cm
Kodaikanal – 31 cm
Boothapandi – 30 cm
Andipatti – 27 cm
Valparai – 25 cm

India toppers from 1.1.10 to 23.5.2010
------------------------------------------------------ Cherrapunji - 478 cm
Passighat - 146 cm
Silchar - 138 cm
Dibrugarh - 115 cm
Itanagar - 104 cm
Dhubri - 98 cm
Gangtok - 95 cm
North Lakhimpur - 88 cm
Coochbehar - 78 cm
Guwahati - 68 cm
Lengpui 68 cm

posted by Pradeep

On 23-May, Kuzhithurai - Marthandam (Kanyakumari dt - Tamilnadu) has got 5 cm

RT @jeggusays: as the rain is awesome, the power went off... usual kerala experience... (3:35pm)

4pm, Showers continue over S-W Kerala, Thunder cells over N-E chatisgarh, S.central Jharkand .. http://ow.ly/i/1J13

RT @happyjerom: Its monsoon in Kerala- my fav season. its so lovely.. the clouds descend upon u..if angry they thunder..

Nagercoil - Intermittent Moderate showers reported from Morning till now.

2:30pm, Showers over S-W kerala continue, North Bay is still active .. http://ow.ly/i/1IYO

Chennai - Temp. going down due to stiff S-E breeze .. now 3:25pm its 34.8°C

RT @iTerrorist: I am in Trivandrum and its raining....!!!! (2:55pm)

Chennai - Temperature going down fast .. now 2:25pm.. 36.7°C

Slight fall in maximum temperatures over parts of northwest and adjoining central India during next 48 hours

Isolated duststorm/thunderstorms may occur over Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan

On 23-may, highest maximum temperature of 47.7°C was recorded at Churu(Rajasthan)

Heat wave conditions are prevailing over Rajasthan, Gujarat , west Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada and Telengana.

Rain map of 23-May, Shows Showers along Orissa coast, Kerala, N-E states as usual .. http://ow.ly/i/1IWz

Chennai - 39.5°C (2:10pm)

Chennai - Heat pump is ON .. 39.2°C (1:37pm) and rising... will rise till 3pm. Will it touch 40 deg C?

@fabwrite >> NO... a remote 5% chance of thunder shower developing towards evening.

RT @radharadhakrish: http://ping.fm/PNsf0 Early morn drive fm Nagercoil 2 Nellai. Rocky hills, wind mills, http://tl.gd/1ev6vf

RT @rrajanaren: I AM ENJOYING THE CLIMATE IN NAGERCOIL.BEAUTIFUL RAIN MAKES EVERYONE HAPPY

@arunsunny >> Is it raining there? If possible upload a snap shot from there. Enjoy the Early Monsoon.

RT @ArishSatheesan: Its raining here in Trivandrum...so coooooool... @iamsreekanth (11:31am)

RT @arunsunny: A rainy day in trivandrum...... (1:21pm)

RT @Dhan_an_JAY: Rain rain rain rain rain n only rain here :):) trivandrum (23-May, 9:48pm)

RT @agentsj: Never seen a rain of this magnitude yet :O Trivandrum (23-May, 6:04pm)

RT @shyama_menon: Little drops make a mighty ocean - http://bit.ly/de9l5T Usha talks about rain water harvesting in Kerala

12:30pm, Showers continue to lash S-W coast of Kerala from Morning .. http://ow.ly/i/1IVk

Western railway gears up to face monsoon ... http://ow.ly/1OWlw

Sri Lanka :: Monsoon in FULL flow ... flood affected over 500,000 people ... http://ow.ly/1OWlh

IMD plans to offer weather updates on mobile phones ... http://ow.ly/1OWkM

RT @piyush_veere: @weatherofindia : Patna,24may-- A thunderstorm with strong winds n heavy showers was witnessed early morning after 3am.

Early morning, S-W monsoon showers continue over South Extreme Kerala and Tamilnadu... http://ow.ly/i/1IL9

Chennai - CAPE factor near chennai is on higher side, suggesting possible T-showers towards evening. Valid next 48 hr.. http://ow.ly/i/1ILT

@sanmugam >> Otherwise Chennai's temperature will touch 40 deg C with Clear skies and mild cool breeze from East towards evening.

@sanmugam >> in next 3 days, If the S-W monsoon current over Kerala coast sets in then we might have Evening thunder showers.

@sanmugam >> Very less chance of showers for Chennai in next 3 days.

RT @piyush_veere: - Cold winds from north-west continue to cool patna with only very light initial shower.Its very cloudy. (10:22pm, 23-may)

on 23-May, Coastal Orissa lashed by rains... http://ow.ly/1OTMd

On 22-May, Cyclone Laila weakens into depression; triggers widespread rainfall in Orissa ... http://ow.ly/1OTLH

Cyclone Laila affects salt production in Orissa‎ ... http://ow.ly/1OTL7

Early morning, At last the remnant of Cyclone Laila has left coastal Andhra and Orissa, Now it's over North Bay.. http://ow.ly/i/1IL9