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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 65.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 64.2E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTI- CYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND CREATING A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVI- RONMENT FOR THE LLCC. SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH SEA SUR- FACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 31 CELSIUS BASED ON RECENT BUOY OBSERVA- TIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
Latest satellite shot
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Gujarat for landfall of potential Cyclone ?
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Unlike in the Bay of Bengal, June is known for the strong cyclones in the Arabian Sea. Several factors, including warm waters and longer stay in the seas, may help strengthen the system many times over.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) continues to consider the south-west Gujarat coast as likely a target for landfall as the Oman coast on the other side, depending on the arrival of a westerly trough from across the border and dipping in.
WET MJO phase from 4-Jun to 19-Jun
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