Cyclone "Phet" to rob the monsoon system ----------------------
Cyclone "Phet" might strengthen rapidly and move away, robbing the monsoon system of much of its energy, denying the mainland any significant precipitation.
The Indian monsoon is the hottest topic among international weather experts, who do not seem to accept India Meteorological Department's (IMD) onset forecast at its face value.
The full-scale onset of monsoon would have to wait until June 10, to time with the arrival of the next convective (wet or rain-generating) phase of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave that travels periodically from west to east.The MJO wave has a major role in precipitating a copy-book onset as distinct from a ‘false onset,' which is likely to unravel around the timeline fixed by the IMD.
The onset, at best, would be transient and may not last longer than a couple of days.
This is because the ‘low' might strengthen rapidly and move away, robbing the monsoon system of much of its energy, denying the mainland any significant precipitation.
In fact, these scientists see the system developing as an intense cyclone (to be named ‘Phet') and moving initially West-Northwest and away in a near replication of Super Cyclone ‘Gonu' of 2007.
Gujarat for landfall?
Unlike in the Bay of Bengal, June is known for the strong cyclones in the Arabian Sea. Several factors, including warm waters and longer stay in the seas, may help strengthen the system many times over.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) continues to consider the south-west Gujarat coast as likely a target for landfall as the Oman coast on the other side, depending on the arrival of a westerly trough from across the border and dipping in.
One expert told Business Line on condition of anonymity that the ‘onset' phase as signalled by the IMD may end sooner than later, under the double whammy of the rogue Arabian Sea cyclone and a ‘dry' MJO phase.
Rains lashing Kerala
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Cochin - 60mm
Trivandrum - 53mm
Minicoy - 34mm
Amini Devi - 17mm
Heavy rain lashes Kanyakumari district
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Nagercoil: Normal life was thrown out of gear following heavy rains, which lashed various parts of the district on Saturday.
The low lying areas were flooded with rain water particularly the passengers from Vadaserry and Anna bus stand were put to untold hardship.
The water level in Pechipparai dam stood at 24.10 feet, 27.40 feet in Perunchani, 3.78 feet in Chittar I and 3.80 feet in Chittar II.
Cyclone "Phet" to rob the monsoon system
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Cyclone "Phet" might strengthen rapidly and move away, robbing the monsoon system of much of its energy, denying the mainland any significant precipitation.
The Indian monsoon is the hottest topic among international weather experts, who do not seem to accept India Meteorological Department's (IMD) onset forecast at its face value.
The full-scale onset of monsoon would have to wait until June 10, to time with the arrival of the next convective (wet or rain-generating) phase of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave that travels periodically from west to east.The MJO wave has a major role in precipitating a copy-book onset as distinct from a ‘false onset,' which is likely to unravel around the timeline fixed by the IMD.
The onset, at best, would be transient and may not last longer than a couple of days.
This is because the ‘low' might strengthen rapidly and move away, robbing the monsoon system of much of its energy, denying the mainland any significant precipitation.
In fact, these scientists see the system developing as an intense cyclone (to be named ‘Phet') and moving initially West-Northwest and away in a near replication of Super Cyclone ‘Gonu' of 2007.
Gujarat for landfall?
Unlike in the Bay of Bengal, June is known for the strong cyclones in the Arabian Sea. Several factors, including warm waters and longer stay in the seas, may help strengthen the system many times over.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) continues to consider the south-west Gujarat coast as likely a target for landfall as the Oman coast on the other side, depending on the arrival of a westerly trough from across the border and dipping in.
One expert told Business Line on condition of anonymity that the ‘onset' phase as signalled by the IMD may end sooner than later, under the double whammy of the rogue Arabian Sea cyclone and a ‘dry' MJO phase.