Cyclone "94A" ... Update # 2 ... soon to be called as "Phet"

Showers drying up along Kerala coast. What will happen to South-west monsoon winds along Kerala ??


JTWC warning
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1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.3N 64.6E TO 14.1N 64.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 310600Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 64.1E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 
64.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 64.1E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTI-
CYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND CREATING A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVI-
RONMENT FOR THE LLCC. SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH SEA SUR-
FACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 31 CELSIUS BASED ON RECENT BUOY AND SHIP
OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 310507Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE
AND A SHIP OBSERVATION JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON BUILDING
DEEP CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

JTWC projected path
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IMD warning
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL

 AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.)

 A LOW PRESSURE AREA LIES OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. ACCORDING TO INSAT IMAGERY, THE  ASSOCIATED VORTEX T1.0 IS CENTRED NEAR LAT. 14.7°N LONG. 64.5°E.  NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS AND CURRENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WOULD CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 17°N OVER THE REGION.  THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE. THERE IS FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 30-32°C OVER THE REGION.

ASSOCIATED INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE REGION BETWEEN LAT. 9.5°N TO 18°N LONG. 57.5 TO 67.0°E

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.

THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa RUNS ALONG LAT 17°N OVER INDIAN REGION.

Satellite shot
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