Usually during pre-monsoon season there used to be a low or cyclonic circulation over Bay especially during the month of May. Now it is all most April and winds are in transition stage. During this time generally the upper level westerlies [the steering wind] always tend to drag system towards East. However the weather associated with the system when traversing the TN coast will give rainfall.
As some one told that in the western Pacific between Indonesia and west South American coast,the SST anomaly is positive. With this predictor one can not say about 2010 SW monsoon. However with this trend cycirs developed in Indian Ocean near Indonesia may be carried along the easterlies and may bring system in the Bay. [This is my presumption]
Posted by Mr. Anonymous
But last year 2009 may we had a cyclonic low pressure "Ailya" which originated from souther Indian ocean. We all anticipated it will cross Tamil Nadu bringing precious water to always water starved state. Instead cyclone crossed Calcutta/Bangladesh.
Any hope of low pressure this year for TamilNadu?
Posted by "SSET"
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