Severe heat wave conditions over Rajasthan and parts of north-west Madhya Pradesh have pushed themselves into the fringes of the core wheat belt with south-west Uttar Pradesh feeling the heat during the 24 hours ending on Monday morning.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated a rise in maximum temperatures over parts of central and east India and Telangana during the next three days, leading to extension of heat wave conditions.
A warning valid for the next 24 hours said that heat wave conditions would continue to prevail over some parts of Gujarat.
Similar conditions are expected to continue over parts of Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh, east Maharashtra, south-west Uttar Pradesh, south Chhattisgarh, Telangana, interior Orissa and Jharkhand during the next two days.
There is no indication of any massive ‘denting' of the wheat belt going forward, if the IMD outlook for the next few days is anything to go by.
This is as much attributed to the presence of a western disturbance already over Jammu and Kashmir as to the expected arrival of follow-up system around Thursday (March 25), though with an initial round of incremental heating.
SMOOTH PASSAGE
The prevailing system is expected to affect Jammu and Kashmir during the next two to three days. Satellite pictures showed low to medium clouds (partly clouded conditions) over Jammu and Kashmir, and parts of Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) sees the incoming western disturbance dipping low over south-west Rajasthan and north Gujarat by Thursday.
On two earlier occasions during last week, incoming westerlies were steered ‘round the J&K corner' by an intruding high-pressure region over West Asia.
They could swing back into position for a toehold over east India only from across the eastern Himalayas from where they had set up a weather-maker trough.
In the present instance, the system is ensured smooth passage into north-west India after the ‘blocking' high-pressure region receded into the background.
The system is expected to bring in moisture, cloudiness and some rain over the wheat belt and influence weather over northwest and east India for three days during the weekend.
In the process, ECMWF shows the system as ‘waving down' the intense heat, which would be pushed progressively into the south over east-central and adjoining central India.
NEXT SYSTEM
But from Monday next, the heating would once again pick up from east-central India and keep growing north-northwest into Rajasthan and adjoining north-west Madhya Pradesh until the arrival of the next western disturbance by April 1.
An IMD update said on Monday that heat wave conditions prevailed over parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and isolated pockets of interior Orissa, Jharkhand, south Chhattisgarh, Telangana and north Madhya Maharashtra during the 24 hours ending Monday morning.
Hot day conditions were prevailing over isolated pockets of coastal Andhra Pradesh as well during this period.
Maximum temperatures were above normal by five to as much as 10 deg Celsius over many parts of north-west, central and north-east India, Gujarat, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.
The highest maximum temperature of 43.4 {+0}C was recorded at Idar in Gujarat.
An IMD forecast until Thursday indicated the possibility of fairly widespread rain or snow over Jammu and Kashmir during the next 24 hours and scattered thereafter.
Scattered to fairly widespread rain or thundershowers accompanied with isolated thundersquall have been forecast over parts of the north-eastern States.
Meanwhile in the south, conditions are building up for the initiation of an easterly wave from the Bay of Bengal. This is expected to bring scattered rains into southern Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala by early next week.
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