Moisture incursion is taking place in the northeast while heat wave conditions have penetrated east India into West Bengal next door during the 24 hours ending Thursday morning.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast scattered to fairly widespread rain or thundershowers accompanied with isolated thundersquall for the Northeastern States in its outlook valid until Sunday.
This would formally signal the Nor'westers into action – seasonal thunderstorms triggered as cooler westerlies run into moisture-laden easterlies from the Bay of Bengal over a heated-up land. A seasonal trough has already been thrown up in the east, which would help rear the thunderstorms and host them for days together. Adding to this explosive mix is a western disturbance bracing to enter the northwest and progressively into east India facilitating moisture incursion from the Bay for the next five days. In the south, conditions are becoming favourable for the arrival of an easterly wave from the Bay of Bengal, which is expected to bring thundershowers to southern Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala.
EAST HOTTER
Meanwhile, heat wave conditions broke into the eastern corridor, with Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh having been brought under their spell. The highest maximum temperature of 43.1 deg Celsius during the last 24 hours was recorded at Bankura in West Bengal, the IMD update said. Heat wave conditions also prevailed over some parts of south Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and isolated pockets of north Rajasthan, interior Orissa and Vidarbha.
Satellite imagery showed the presence of low and medium clouds (partly clouded conditions) over parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, north Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, the Northeastern States and south Bay of Bengal.
Isolated rain and snow would occur over Jammu and Kashmir from Friday onwards. Outlook until Tuesday spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread rain or thundershowers accompanied with isolated thundersquall over the northeast.
KOREAN FORECAST
Heat wave conditions are expected to prevail over parts of north Madhya Pradesh and south Uttar Pradesh during next 24 hours and abate thereafter. However, they may continue to hold over parts of Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, interior Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal during the next two days.
The Busan, South Korea-based APEC Climate Centre (APCC) has come out with its seasonal forecasts for April-May-June suggesting normal rains for the southwest coast and adjoining extreme south peninsula. But the west coast is shown to project a deficit, as will central and southwest Maharashtra and coastal Karnataka. The rest of the peninsula, including coastal Andhra Pradesh to the east, would largely see normal rains during these three months.
6-MONTH OUTLOOK
The experimental six-month outlook covering June-July-August suggested normal to just less than normal rainfall for the central, north and northwest of the country, which is at variance with forecasts made by other agencies until now.
The Bay of Bengal arm is seen driving the proceedings with likely excess rains for the southeastern coast and interior peninsula, the APCC outlook said. During the 2009 monsoon season, seasonal forecast by APCC showing critical deficits for June-July was right on target
EL Nino Southern Oscillation [ENSO] is an indicator of Indian summer Monsoon Rainfall 2010. On observing the general weather conditions prevailing in Tamilnadu, one has to presume that this time too SW monsoon in earlier May & June will be active over TN. Nor the Bay branch of the monsoon current will be prominent during onset at Kanyakumari (and) district or felt prominent just prior to on set. My colleagues working in TN Forest department expressed that the migration of wild animals like Panther and elephants into Eastern slopes of western ghats is an indicator that TN will get relatively more rainfall during 2010 early SW monsoon period. They further quoted that even reptiles have migrated down slope fearing big forest fires in the upper reaches of western ghat in Theni & Coimbatore districts. [owing to descending air from High pressure. We will hope and optimistic that rain God will be favorable for TN during 2010 SWM period.
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