EL Nino Southern Oscillation [ENSO] is an indicator of Indian summer Monsoon Rainfall 2010. On observing the general weather conditions prevailing in Tamilnadu, one has to presume that this time too SW monsoon in earlier May & June will be active over TN. Nor the Bay branch of the monsoon current will be prominent during onset at Kanyakumari (and) district or felt prominent just prior to on set. My colleagues working in TN Forest department expressed that the migration of wild animals like Panther and elephants into Eastern slopes of western ghats is an indicator that TN will get relatively more rainfall during 2010 early SW monsoon period. They further quoted that even reptiles have migrated down slope fearing big forest fires in the upper reaches of western ghat in Theni & Coimbatore districts. [owing to descending air from High pressure. We will hope and optimistic that rain God will be favorable for TN during 2010 SWM period.
Posted by Mr. Anonymous
But last year we had a cyclonic low pressure "Ailya" which originated from souther Indian ocean. We all anticipated it will cross Tamil Nadu bringing precious water to always water starved state. Instead cyclone crossed Calcutta/Bangladesh.
ReplyDeleteAny hope of low pressure this year for TamilNadu?
But last year 2009 may we had a cyclonic low pressure "Ailya" which originated from souther Indian ocean. We all anticipated it will cross Tamil Nadu bringing precious water to always water starved state. Instead cyclone crossed Calcutta/Bangladesh.
ReplyDeleteAny hope of low pressure this year for TamilNadu?
Usually during pre-monsoon season there used to be a low or cyclonic circulation over Bay especially during the month of May. Now it is all most April and winds are in transition stage. During this time generally the upper level westerlies [the steering wind] always tend to drag system towards East. However the weather associated with the system when traversing the TN coast will give rainfall.
ReplyDeleteAs some one told that in the western Pacific between Indonesia and west South American coast,the SST anomaly is positive. With this predictor one can not say about 2010 SW monsoon. However with this trend cycirs developed in Indian Ocean near Indonesia may be carried along the easterlies and may bring system in the Bay. [This is my presumption]