Update on TC "Laila":
The latest position of TC Laila is 14.3N 81.2E, that is 150 Kms. North-East of Chennai.Now,that is the nearest it has got to Chennai,and with the track turning North,it should strike land near Machillipatinum by tonite.
Maximum winds speed at 65Knts,and a core pressure of 986 mb,"Laila"  maintains its Severe cyclone status.
But,after landfall, "Laila" is expected to weaken, and might not even reach the Orissa coast while tracking North-Eastwards.In fact,it is expected to dissipate within 72 hrs of landfall.
So,as Chennai starts clearing up from tomorrow evening,the brunt of the rains will be borne by coastal A.P,but not much penetrating in the interiors of the states.
Today,there was widespread rain in Tamil Nadu.Recording today morning, Chennai recieved 82 mms,Thiruvarur and Musiri 70 mms and various other stations between 30-50 mms.

After the "giant" dies down, and starts weakening,the south-west monsoon winds will re-organise in the Arabian Sea. The regular South-West monsoon moisture flow should start by the 22nd. of May,first into Sri lanka, followed by Kerala. As I discussed earliar,I expect this flow to start initially as a "rebound" to being subdued, and may last on for a few days on Kerala/Karnataka for the time being. The monsoon may take a small pause of 5/6 days at Karnataka coast.
 
TC 02A has also formed in thre Arabian Sea.But, it will have no effect on the Sub-Continent coasts.It will enter the Gulf of Aden.As this gulf is cooled by the Somali current, the TC should weaken rapidly.
Satellite image (10.30pm Wednessday) of both the systems either side of India.

 
Readings as on 19th. May: 
Hottest in Asia: Nawabshah (Pakistan) 49c.
Hottest in India: Akola (Maharashtra): 47.2cHottest Nights: Amraoti:33.8c, Chandrapur: 33.6c,Jodhpur: 33c,Khajuraho: 32.3c, Aurangabad: 32.2c,Jabalpur: 32c.(Now i'm not going below 32c).
Mumbai today, Colaba:34.8c, Santa Cruz:33.0c.

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 14

IMD Warning
---------------------------

ROPICAL STORM ‘LAILA’ ADVISORY NO. TWELVE ISSUED AT 1200 UTC OF

19^TH MAY 2010 BASED ON 0900 UTC CHARTS OF 19^TH MAY.       

            THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘LAILA’ OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING

 WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS DURING PAST

 6 HOURS  AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 19^TH MAY 2010 OVER

 WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE

14.0⁰N AND LONG. 81.5⁰E, ABOUT 150 KM NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, 250 KM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MACHILIPATNAM AND 500 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF

VISAKHAPATNAM.           

            SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT

55 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

   THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 986 HPA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BANDING PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY

  OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.5 ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE

CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LAT. 10.0⁰ N TO 18.0⁰ N.

 THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -90⁰C

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS 10-15 KNOTS.

THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS

ALONG 17⁰N. SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION

 LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. SHEAR TENDENCY OVER

PAST 24 HOURS IS NEGATIVE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

            CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP)

MODELS GUIDANCE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A

NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST

 BETWEEN NELLORE AND KAKINADA, CLOSE TO MACHILIPATNAM BY MORNING OF 20^TH MAY 2010.

BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES,

Latest satellite shot
----------------------------

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 13 .. Now a Severe Cyclone

IMD warning
-----------------------------

The cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over southwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards during past 6 hours, intensified into severe cyclonic storm  and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 19th May 2010 over southwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 13.50N and long. 81.50E, about 150 km east-northeast of Chennai, 300 km south-southeast of Machilipatnam and 500 km south-southwest of Visakhapatnam. 

               The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly to northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Kakinada, close to Machilipatnam by morning of 20th May 2010.

               Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cms or more) likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 36 hours and in north Tamil Nadu during next 24 hours. Gale force wind with Maximum speed reaching 115-125 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast at the time of landfall. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph is likely along and off north Tamil Nadu coast during next 24 hours.

               Sea condition will be very high to phenomenal along and off Andhra Pradesh coast  during next 36 hoursand very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu coast during next 24 hours. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea off these coasts.

Storm surge of 1.5 to 2 metres above the astronomical tide is likely to inundate the coastal areas of Guntur, Krishna and West  & East Godavari districts of Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.

Damage expected: Extensive damage to thatched roofs and huts. Damage to power and  communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes over Nellore, Prakasham, Guntur, Krishna, West & East Godavari and Vishakhapatnam districts.

Action suggested: Total suspension of fishing operation. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places.  People in affected areas to remains indoors of the above districts.

Warning for Orissa and West Bengal: As the system is likely to move northeastwards after landfall across Orissa and West Bengal according to NWP model predictions. The enhanced rainfall activity likely to occur over coastal Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal form 20th May and 21st May respectively for subsequent 48 hours. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph likely to commence along and off Orissa and West Bengal coast respectively from 20th and 21st May 2010. Fishermen are advised to be cantious while going out into sea off these coasts.

                Next bulletin will be issued at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 19th May 2010.

GFS prediction
--------------------------------
GFS model for next 72 hrs reveals that the Cyclone "laila" will TOUCH or Come close to Andhra coast and then dissipate and move in a North-East direction

Immediately after Cyclone "Laila" 's North-East movement ... here comes the South-West Monsoon crashing over Kerala coast on or after 22-May-2010

Latest satellite shot at 4:30pm IST
-------------------------------------------------

@rajnair84 >> Is it raining there? Is it raining from WEST ??. Pls update. Thanks

While Cyclone "Laila" is moving slowly. South-west coast of Kerala is getting S-W monsoon kind of showers.

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 12 ... Is it going to be stable for next 36 hrs?? ... http://ow.ly/1MZtO

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 12 ... Is it going to be stable for next 36 hrs??

While Cyclone "Laila" is moving slowly. South-west coast of Kerala is getting S-W monsoon kind of showers.

JTWC projected path
----------------------------------

JTWC warning
----------------------------

190900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 81.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01B HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE MORE POLEWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON A 190208Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE
AND FROM A RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGE FROM CHENNAI. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
45 KNOTS (DEMS AND KNES) TO 65 KNOTS (PGTW). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS IN RESPONSE TO AN 
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL 
GUIDANCE ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK WITH WBAR AND
GFS TO THE LEFT AND TCLAPS TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. TC LAILA IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36 AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF INDIA. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL
BE BELOW 35-KNOT INTENSITY BEFORE IT DRIFTS INTO NORTHERN BAY OF
BENGAL AND DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z

Latest satellite shot at 3pm IST
--------------------------------------------

RT @AuraofDreams: RT: @HeadlinesIndia: Heavy rains lash coastal Andhra as cyclone nears the shore. http://bit.ly/bALI9o news India

Follow TV9 video for latest on Cyclone 'Laila" from Andhra .. http://ping.fm/0GeG9
and Live streaming here .. http://ow.ly/1MZ3f

Laila Cyclone disrupts Andhra Pradesh (News Video) ... http://ow.ly/1MYX7