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ROPICAL STORM ‘LAILA’ ADVISORY NO. TWELVE ISSUED AT 1200 UTC OF
19TH MAY 2010 BASED ON 0900 UTC CHARTS OF 19TH MAY.
THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘LAILA’ OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING
6 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 19TH MAY 2010 OVER
WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE
14.00N AND LONG. 81.50E, ABOUT 150 KM NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, 250 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MACHILIPATNAM AND 500 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT
55 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 986 HPA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BANDING PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY
OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.5 ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LAT. 10.00 N TO 18.00 N.
THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -900C
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS 10-15 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS
ALONG 170N. SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. SHEAR TENDENCY OVER
PAST 24 HOURS IS NEGATIVE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP)
MODELS GUIDANCE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST
BETWEEN NELLORE AND KAKINADA
BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES,
Latest satellite shot
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