Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 12 ... Is it going to be stable for next 36 hrs??

While Cyclone "Laila" is moving slowly. South-west coast of Kerala is getting S-W monsoon kind of showers.

JTWC projected path
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JTWC warning
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190900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 81.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01B HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE MORE POLEWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON A 190208Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE
AND FROM A RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGE FROM CHENNAI. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
45 KNOTS (DEMS AND KNES) TO 65 KNOTS (PGTW). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS IN RESPONSE TO AN 
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL 
GUIDANCE ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK WITH WBAR AND
GFS TO THE LEFT AND TCLAPS TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. TC LAILA IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36 AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF INDIA. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL
BE BELOW 35-KNOT INTENSITY BEFORE IT DRIFTS INTO NORTHERN BAY OF
BENGAL AND DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z

Latest satellite shot at 3pm IST
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