Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 13 .. Now a Severe Cyclone

IMD warning
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The cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over southwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards during past 6 hours, intensified into severe cyclonic storm  and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 19th May 2010 over southwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 13.50N and long. 81.50E, about 150 km east-northeast of Chennai, 300 km south-southeast of Machilipatnam and 500 km south-southwest of Visakhapatnam. 

               The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly to northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Kakinada, close to Machilipatnam by morning of 20th May 2010.

               Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cms or more) likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 36 hours and in north Tamil Nadu during next 24 hours. Gale force wind with Maximum speed reaching 115-125 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast at the time of landfall. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph is likely along and off north Tamil Nadu coast during next 24 hours.

               Sea condition will be very high to phenomenal along and off Andhra Pradesh coast  during next 36 hoursand very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu coast during next 24 hours. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea off these coasts.

Storm surge of 1.5 to 2 metres above the astronomical tide is likely to inundate the coastal areas of Guntur, Krishna and West  & East Godavari districts of Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.

Damage expected: Extensive damage to thatched roofs and huts. Damage to power and  communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes over Nellore, Prakasham, Guntur, Krishna, West & East Godavari and Vishakhapatnam districts.

Action suggested: Total suspension of fishing operation. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places.  People in affected areas to remains indoors of the above districts.

Warning for Orissa and West Bengal: As the system is likely to move northeastwards after landfall across Orissa and West Bengal according to NWP model predictions. The enhanced rainfall activity likely to occur over coastal Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal form 20th May and 21st May respectively for subsequent 48 hours. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph likely to commence along and off Orissa and West Bengal coast respectively from 20th and 21st May 2010. Fishermen are advised to be cantious while going out into sea off these coasts.

                Next bulletin will be issued at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 19th May 2010.

GFS prediction
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GFS model for next 72 hrs reveals that the Cyclone "laila" will TOUCH or Come close to Andhra coast and then dissipate and move in a North-East direction

Immediately after Cyclone "Laila" 's North-East movement ... here comes the South-West Monsoon crashing over Kerala coast on or after 22-May-2010

Latest satellite shot at 4:30pm IST
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