December 10, 2016 at 09:38PM

#vardah stays fit as severe cyclone. Now 85% chance of landfall near #Chennai as D.Depression on noon, 12-Dec. #weather

from Instagram

Vardah - Severe Cyclone ! Landfall can be South of Nellore !

11:30am, #vardah - Severe Cyclone.. and marching W, WNW ... Precipitation imagery also attached ..  https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pOiZQ.jpg 
https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pOj0r.jpg 

Severe cyclone #vardah is now "almost" parallel to #chennai latitude !

Present pos :  12.55N, 87.11E , pressure: 987mb ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pOjdl.jpg 

Factors that are going to affect #vardah 's intensity ..

1. Shear towards Chennai coast is high.

2. Dry air slowly wrapping the system.

GFS, GEM, ECMWF are in sync with near #Chennai landfall as "cyclone" on 12-Dec ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pOjkH.jpg

NAVGEM, HWRF models suggest a just above Nellore landfall as Cyclone on 12-Dec .

IMD & JTWC also taking this opinion ! ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pOjqI.jpg 

#Vardah - landfall can be along Chennai to Kavali, Andhra.... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pOjDi.jpg 

#vardah - During landfall, intensity of the cyclone will be reduced due to DRY air and shear near coast ! 

#Vardah - DRY air is slowly wrapping the system.

In next 24 / 36 hrs, it'll try to wrap fully !!

If this happens, it'll lose intensity, rain ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pOjLu.jpg 

https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pOjLF.jpg 

VARDHA "Severe cyclonic storm" landfall over chennai

Cyclonic storm to severe cyclonic storm VARDAH: The cyclonic storm, VARDAH over southeast Bay of Bengal moved west­northwestwards in past 06 hrs with a speed of 7 kmph.

The system is very likely to move west­northwestwards and intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 12 hours. It is very likely to maintain its peak intensity upto evening of 11th December 2016. Thereafter, it is likely to weaken gradually while moving towards Andhra Pradesh coast.

It is very likely to cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Machilipatnam around afternoon/evening of 12th December 2016. -IMD

When system starts weakening while nearing coast it would move WSW direction. Then Landfall going to be further south which will between Nellore and chennai or over chennai

Now Both ECMWF and GFS are almost in same statement on landfall track between Nellore to chennai.

Rains for chennai will be from late Sunday an better rains (Moderate to heavy) during Monday to Tuesday. No flooding rains.

Image 1: current view of VARDAH (Infrared)
Image 2, 3, 4 ,5 : GEFS track and GFS and  models shows system near chennai coast.
Image 6: Tropical cyclone intensity scale

#Chennai #Nellore

Cold weather across plains,WD approaching.

Delhi min:- 11.2°c

Rohtak:- 11°c 

Narnaul:- 8.3°c

Hisar:- 10°c

Cold & foggy weather to persists over plains where as a wd is expected to approach hills by Today evening/night due to which moderate snow likely over hills & induced cyclonic circulation over central pak and abjoining Rajasthan due to which light rains /thundershowers may seen over plains of North punjab, Haryana & Rajasthan. 

Cloudy weather may seen over the Delhi NCR region due to which min temp is expected to increase by very little notches but once the wd will clear away from the region the there will be sudden drop in min & max temp accross the plains & cold and dry NW winds blow over the region so, coldwave conditions may be witnessed over some parts thats how the intense winter will start over the region.

December 10, 2016 at 09:35AM

#vardah #wow latest visible shot. Massive #fog cover over haryana, Delhi, Uttarpradesh. #weather

from Instagram

December 10, 2016 at 07:31AM

6:30am, #vardah has intensified (987mb) and moved WNW. #Chennai is having a cold, high cloud #morning . #weather

from Instagram

Vardah - next 48hrs -- SST = ok, shear = ok, Dry air = NOT OK !!

4:30pm, Cyclone #vardah - No great intensification observed, less convective activity, but drifted West ! ...  https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pMvNg.jpg 

#Vardah - ADT analysis suggest pressure around 995mb.

It'll intensify during next 36hrs ! but DRY air has slowly started to wrap thru SW.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pMwj0.jpg 

#Vardah - The dry air may wrap around the system more quickly after next 36hrs and during its intensification process !

#Vardah and dry air !!

GFS - expects there'll be dry wrapping in next 48hrs at mid-levels than in lower levels .. 

https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pMyFe.jpg 

After 36/48hrs, Due to DRY air, #vardah can have a drastic "moisture cut" >> meaning, it'll weaken !!!

Shear and Sea surface temperature is almost OK for #vardah 's further WNW track during next 36hrs ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pMybH.jpg 

https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pMyfB.jpg 

December 09, 2016 at 12:01PM

HWRF is almost in sync with GFS, predicting #vardah landfall along central-coast Andhra on 12-Dec ... #iwm http://pic.twitter.com/u4xnkteb7J

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) December 9, 2016

For more tweets follow :: @weatherofindia

December 09, 2016 at 11:52AM

ECMWF is "super consistent" in forecasting #vardah landfall over / near #Chennai on 12-Dec as Cyclone ... #iwm http://pic.twitter.com/nKrURCl6g7

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) December 9, 2016

For more tweets follow :: @weatherofindia

Vardah - moving WNW

Cyclone #Vardah has turned West towards SE-coast of India .. ADT suggests pressure aroound 995mb! .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/pLVQR.gif 

Latest satellite visible show that most of convective activity is over N,NW,W quadrants of #vardah. Partly exposed LLCC can also be seen ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pLW3W.jpg 

JTWC continues to forecast a central-coast Andhra as a Cyclone on 12-Dec ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/pLWuh.gif 
This is what GFS and GEM model suggest about the track of #Vardah .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pLWO8.jpg 

Cyclone #Vardah is expected to be steered WNW by a ridge situated NE of the system 
.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pLWXU.jpg 
https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pLWYf.jpg 

Wind shear is expected to be neutral all along its forecast track, so it'll intensify further during next 48hrs ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/pLX6l.gif 

@harinipaddy @AfsarOfficial @Karthikganesh29   >> As per latest GFS model, JTWC .. #vardah is not expected to make landfall near #Chennai  
@harinipaddy @AfsarOfficial @Karthikganesh29 >> We shall wait for latest ECMWF and HWRF model run in next 1 hr !