Friday, December 09, 2016

Vardah - next 48hrs -- SST = ok, shear = ok, Dry air = NOT OK !!

4:30pm, Cyclone #vardah - No great intensification observed, less convective activity, but drifted West ! ... 

#Vardah - ADT analysis suggest pressure around 995mb.
It'll intensify during next 36hrs ! but DRY air has slowly started to wrap thru SW.. 
#Vardah - The dry air may wrap around the system more quickly after next 36hrs and during its intensification process !
#Vardah and dry air !!
GFS - expects there'll be dry wrapping in next 48hrs at mid-levels than in lower levels .. 
After 36/48hrs, Due to DRY air, #vardah can have a drastic "moisture cut" >> meaning, it'll weaken !!!

Shear and Sea surface temperature is almost OK for #vardah 's further WNW track during next 36hrs ... 

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