Saturday, December 10, 2016

Vardah - Severe Cyclone ! Landfall can be South of Nellore !

11:30am, #vardah - Severe Cyclone.. and marching W, WNW ... Precipitation imagery also attached .. 

Severe cyclone #vardah is now "almost" parallel to #chennai latitude !
Present pos :  12.55N, 87.11E , pressure: 987mb ... 

Factors that are going to affect #vardah 's intensity ..
1. Shear towards Chennai coast is high.
2. Dry air slowly wrapping the system.

GFS, GEM, ECMWF are in sync with near #Chennai landfall as "cyclone" on 12-Dec ...
NAVGEM, HWRF models suggest a just above Nellore landfall as Cyclone on 12-Dec .
IMD & JTWC also taking this opinion ! ... 
#Vardah - landfall can be along Chennai to Kavali, Andhra.... 

#vardah - During landfall, intensity of the cyclone will be reduced due to DRY air and shear near coast ! 
#Vardah - DRY air is slowly wrapping the system.
In next 24 / 36 hrs, it'll try to wrap fully !!
If this happens, it'll lose intensity, rain ... 

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