11:30am, #vardah - Severe Cyclone.. and marching W, WNW ... Precipitation imagery also attached .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pOiZQ.jpg
Severe cyclone #vardah is now "almost" parallel to #chennai latitude !
Present pos : 12.55N, 87.11E , pressure: 987mb ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pOjdl.jpg
Factors that are going to affect #vardah 's intensity ..
1. Shear towards Chennai coast is high.
2. Dry air slowly wrapping the system.
GFS, GEM, ECMWF are in sync with near #Chennai landfall as "cyclone" on 12-Dec ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pOjkH.jpg
NAVGEM, HWRF models suggest a just above Nellore landfall as Cyclone on 12-Dec .
IMD & JTWC also taking this opinion ! ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pOjqI.jpg
#Vardah - landfall can be along Chennai to Kavali, Andhra.... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pOjDi.jpg
#vardah - During landfall, intensity of the cyclone will be reduced due to DRY air and shear near coast !
#Vardah - DRY air is slowly wrapping the system.
In next 24 / 36 hrs, it'll try to wrap fully !!
If this happens, it'll lose intensity, rain ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pOjLu.jpg