Cyclonic storm to severe cyclonic storm VARDAH: The cyclonic storm, VARDAH over southeast Bay of Bengal moved westnorthwestwards in past 06 hrs with a speed of 7 kmph.
The system is very likely to move westnorthwestwards and intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 12 hours. It is very likely to maintain its peak intensity upto evening of 11th December 2016. Thereafter, it is likely to weaken gradually while moving towards Andhra Pradesh coast.
It is very likely to cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Machilipatnam around afternoon/evening of 12th December 2016. -IMD
When system starts weakening while nearing coast it would move WSW direction. Then Landfall going to be further south which will between Nellore and chennai or over chennai
Now Both ECMWF and GFS are almost in same statement on landfall track between Nellore to chennai.
Rains for chennai will be from late Sunday an better rains (Moderate to heavy) during Monday to Tuesday. No flooding rains.
Image 1: current view of VARDAH (Infrared)
Image 2, 3, 4 ,5 : GEFS track and GFS and models shows system near chennai coast.
Image 6: Tropical cyclone intensity scale