Friday, October 10, 2014

Status Report as on Friday Noon:

Cyclone Hudhud, having moved NW, is positioned at 14.7N and  87.6E, 494 nm south of Kolkata.Estimated core pressure 985 mb and estimated winds at 65  knts on 1 minute average and DVORK Estimates.  Observed 25 knts vertical wind shear...may not be favourable for rapid intensification, but other factors like height favour it.
As cyclone has reached upper level to almost 300 hp, conditions are favourable for initial strengthening and NW tracking as it is South of Sub Tropical Ridge (STR). STR may shift to East...,  which may shift the track N/NW.
Ensuing dry air appears to be diminishing, to a small region seen in the SE of the centre.
Very rough seas at present in the core region with 16 feet waves above astronomical tide levels.
From Vagaries

Hudhud - 5am, a slight weakening observed.
Pressure now around 978 mb.
But continues to move WNW.. 14.31 N, 87.24 E

Cyclone "HudHud" now a "Severe Cyclonic Storm




as per JTWC latest warning no.8 

TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (HUDHUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 516 NM SOUTH
OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A DEEP CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON A
091005Z SSMIS PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDING GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03B IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE, ALLOWING THE
CYCLONE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY PRIOR TO LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF
VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, PRIOR TO TAU 72. IT WILL THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS
IT TRACKS INLAND AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
OVERALL IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 18 FEET.

Thursday, October 09, 2014

HudHud - warning !!


HudHud - constantly tracking W-N-W and intensifying !


HudHud - 5:30pm, constant W-N-W movement and intensification observed ... http://ow.ly/i/7abwq 
HudHud - 5:30pm, scattered T showers has popped over many zones of Indian peninsula ... http://ow.ly/i/7abwq

HudHud, 5pm...
Pressure 973.4 mb
Winds now touching 150 kmph.
Position ... http://ow.ly/i/7abZa 

HudHud - ALL the models suggest a landfall along N-E Andhra coast and S Odisha coast on night, 12-Oct ... http://ow.ly/i/7ac6C 

Weather Instagram at October 09, 2014 at 02:41PM

Tirunelveli - 2pm, Thunder cell seen over east. #weather


from Instagram

Weather Instagram at October 09, 2014 at 11:56AM

#chennai - 11:44am, heavy rain now over Greams road, Nungambakkam. Slowly moving south. #weather


from Instagram

Today again, more T Showers for W-ghats,W,S-W Maharastra, W-ghats, central, S Karnataka, N,N-W,central,S, W-ghats Tamilnadu, W-ghats Kerala.

HudHud - Intensifies further and moved W-N-W


Analysis indicate that Cyclone HudHud has moved W-N-W during past 12hrs and intensified further.
Present position is 13.48 N , 88.54 E.
Pressure around 980 mb.

Wind gust upto 135 kmph around centre.
Wind analysis suggest a wide centre with more than 60 kmph.

8:30am, Satellite IR suggests heavy convective activity along centre, S, S-W,S-E quadrants and over N-W outer bands.

Forecast
~~~~~~~~~~~
Most of the models suggest a further intensification into Severe Cyclone and continue to track W-N-W and make landfall along N-E Andhra coast and S Odisha coast on 12-Oct.

Present upper-level W.D trough is expected to cross N,N-W kashmir in next 36hrs and its trough can be seen upto 31 / 32 N so less affect on the Cyclone HudHud.
Meanwhile, another upper-level W.D circulation and trough is expected to reach N,N-W India on 13-Oct, this system can interact with the remnant of Cyclone over land !!

Weather Instagram at October 09, 2014 at 08:27AM

Tirunelveli - 8:25am, less rain recorded during past 10 days! Its mild now. #weather


from Instagram