Sunday, October 12, 2014

Cyclone HUDHUD , intensifying rapidly , closing on landfall



JTWC latest Bulletin : -warning - 16th 

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (HUDHUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 102 NM
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED WHILE THE 
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED WITH A 
SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND DEFINED BANDING. RADAR IMAGERY 
FROM VISAKHAPATNAM SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED AND 
REVEALS A DEFINED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON 
THE RADAR ANIMATION ALONG WITH THE EIR LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS AND THE 
UNCHANGED STRUCTURE. TC 03B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE 
LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12 AND THEN BEGIN RE-CURVING POLEWARD 
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS FORECAST TO RE-
ORIENT AS A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN INDIA.TC 
03B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING PRIOR TO LANDFALL UNDER 
GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND SHOULD PEAK NEAR 115 KNOTS. 
THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER LAND AND DISSIPATE 
NEAR TAU 36. THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
THE FORECAST SCENARIO, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 

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