JTWC latest Bulletin : -warning - 16th
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (HUDHUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 102 NM
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED WHILE THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED WITH A
SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND DEFINED BANDING. RADAR IMAGERY
FROM VISAKHAPATNAM SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED AND
REVEALS A DEFINED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON
THE RADAR ANIMATION ALONG WITH THE EIR LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS AND THE
UNCHANGED STRUCTURE. TC 03B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12 AND THEN BEGIN RE-CURVING POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS FORECAST TO RE-
ORIENT AS A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN INDIA.TC
03B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING PRIOR TO LANDFALL UNDER
GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND SHOULD PEAK NEAR 115 KNOTS.
THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER LAND AND DISSIPATE
NEAR TAU 36. THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE FORECAST SCENARIO, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (HUDHUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 102 NM
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED WHILE THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED WITH A
SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND DEFINED BANDING. RADAR IMAGERY
FROM VISAKHAPATNAM SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED AND
REVEALS A DEFINED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON
THE RADAR ANIMATION ALONG WITH THE EIR LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS AND THE
UNCHANGED STRUCTURE. TC 03B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12 AND THEN BEGIN RE-CURVING POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS FORECAST TO RE-
ORIENT AS A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN INDIA.TC
03B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING PRIOR TO LANDFALL UNDER
GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND SHOULD PEAK NEAR 115 KNOTS.
THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER LAND AND DISSIPATE
NEAR TAU 36. THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE FORECAST SCENARIO, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS
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