Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 14... weakening fast over Oman

JTWC warning
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040900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 59.4E. 
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 82 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 03A
HAS BECOME ASYMMETRICAL AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF
NORTHERN OMAN AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON A 040424Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM PREVIOUS DVORAK ESTIMATES AND FROM
NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING TO
THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST, IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN IRAN. BY TAU 12, TC 03A SHOULD MAKE IT BACK
OVER WATER INTO THE GULF OF OMAN AND SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), THEN MAKE LANDFALL NEAR KARACHI, PAKISTAN
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES INLAND BY TAU 72. ALL AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODELS
HAVE COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT THIS TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS INITIALLY TO THE EAST OF AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS. THE BRIEF
TRACK OVER OMAN WILL ONLY HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT TO INTENSITY, AS
MOIST, WARM, OCEAN, WATER WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER,
THE FAVORABLE INFLOW WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE INCREASING VWS. THERE IS
AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO WHERE TC PHET WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE
NORTH AS IT BREAKS FREE FROM THE TUG OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. IN
THIS CASE, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY TO
DISSIPATION AND/OR A SUCCEEDING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE SINAI PENINSULA, COMES ALONG TO PULL IT NORTHEAST.

JTWC projected path
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Phet may not reach Pakistan

Satellite shot 
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South-west monsoon winds
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Due to Phet effect the S-W winds are seen reaching Gujarat Coast.
These winds will not sustain for more than 2 days, instead it'll consolidate over S-W coast of India.
Meanwhile heavy convective clouds can be seen over South Bay, so monsoon is active over South Andaman islands.