JTWC warning
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040300Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 59.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 03A HAS MADE LANDFALL INTO OMAN, AND HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS, INCREASING AS TC 03A MOVES FURTHER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NGPS, GFS, GFDN, AND EGRR ALL INDICATE THAT TC 03A WILL TURN WEST- WARD, AND LOITER OVER OMAN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS IS NOT LIKELY AS CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS STILL MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AROUND THE STR. ECMF AND WBAR REMAIN THE ONLY TWO MODELS THAT CURRENTLY SHOW A REASONABLE SOLUTION BASED ON THE TRACK OF PHET, AND THIS FORECAST FAVORS THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. THE BRIEF TRACK OVER OMAN WILL ONLY HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT TO INTENSITY, AS MOIST, WARM, OCEAN, WATER WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, THE FAVORABLE INFLOW WILL BE TEMPERED BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WILL KEEP TC 03A ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. LANDFALL IN PAKISTAN BY TAU 60 WILL CAUSE A RAPID WEAKENING WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 30 FEET.
JTWC projected path
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IMD warning
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ARB 02/2010/28 Dated: 04.06.2010
Time of issue: 0830 hours IST
Sub: Very severe cyclonic storm, ‘PHET’ crossing Oman
The very severe cyclonic storm, “PHET” over westcentral Arabian Sea moved further northwards and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, 4th June 2010 near latitude 21.50N and long. 59.50E very close to Oman coast, about 170 km south-southwest of Sur (Oman) and 150 km north-northeast of Masirah island (Oman) and 1050 km west-southwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat), 950 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan),Latest observations indicate that system is now crossing Oman coast near lat. 21.5 degree N.
Available observations and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models guidance suggest that the system would move northward for some time while weakening gradually, then recurvenortheastwards and emerge into northwest Arabian Sea and move northeastwards Pakistan
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given below:
Date/Time(IST) | Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E) | Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph) |
04-06-2010/0530 | 21.5/59.5 | 120-130 gusting to 140 |
04-06-2010/1130 | 22.0/59.5 | 120-130 gusting to 140 |
04-06-2010/1730 | 22.5/59.5 | 110-120 gusting to 130 |
04-06-2010/2330 | 23.0/60.0 | 110-120 gusting to 130 |
05-06-2010/0530 | 23.5/60.5 | 100-110 gusting to 120 |
05-06-2010/1730 | 24.0/62.0 | 90-100 gusting to 110 |
06-06-2010/0530 | 24.5/64.0 | 80-90 gusting to 100 |
06-06-.2010/1730 | 25.0/66.0 | 80-90 gusting to 100 |
07-06-.2010/0530 | 25.5/68.0 | 70-80 gusting to 90 |
Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls would occur over Saurashtra & Kutch during next 48 hrs. Squally winds with speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting 60 kmph would occur along and off Gujarat coast during same period. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Gujarat coast and adjoining north Arabian Sea . Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off this coast.
Satellite at 11am IST
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South west monsoon over S-W India will pickup speed only after 10-Jun
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