Heavy thunder storms over Gujarat at this time.
JTWC warning
---------------------------------
020900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 60.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED 11 NM EYE, PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN POSITION. TC 03A CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TC PHET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AND BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 36. TC PHET IS FORECAST TO THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE IN SPEED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES AND CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL BEFORE TAU 96. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO INTO THE WESTERLIES, HOWEVER, THEY DIFFER ON WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL TURN. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SPLIT WITH TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF TRACKERS WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN. THE EASTERN CLUSTER (ECMWF, UKMO, WBAR) INDICATES A SHARP RECURVATURE AND FASTER TRACK SPEEDS. THE WESTERN CLUSTER (NOGAPS, GFS, GFDN) INDICATES A SLOWER TRACK INTO NORTHEASTERN OMAN, THEN RECURVATURE INTO THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY DEPICTING THE RIDGE AXIS DUE TO THE SPARSE DATA REGION AND HAVE INCREASED IN MODEL SPREAD. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ALSO BEEN TRENDING WESTWARD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM FARTHER WESTWARD AND CLOSER TO OMAN THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF TC 03A TO OMAN AROUND TAU 36, THE INTENSITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER TAU 48. ALSO, AFTER INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERLIES, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE, THEREFORE TC PHET SHOULD NOT INTENSIFY FURTHER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL BY TAU 96. TC 03A WILL THEN DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 22 FEET
JTWC projected path
------------------------------------
JTWC still sees that the system will re-curve towards north Arabian sea in another 24 hrs after moving very close to Oman.
Satellite shot at 2pm IST
-----------------------------------
We can see the CLEAR Eye of the Cyclone
IMD warning at 2pm IST
--------------------------------------
ARB 02/2010/14 Dated: 02.06.2010
Time of issue: 1400 hours IST
Sub: Very severe cyclonic storm, ‘PHET’ over westcentral Arabian Sea.
The severe cyclonic storm, “PHET” over westcentral Arabian Sea remained practically stationary, intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, 02nd June 2010 near latitude 17.50N and long. 61.00E, about 1200 km west-southwest of Mumbai, 1060 km southwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat), 1100 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 600 km south-southeast of Sur (Oman).
The current environmental condition and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify further and move slowly in a north-northwesterly/northerly direction for next 24 hours, close to Oman coast and then recurve northeastwards towards Pakistan & adjoining Gujarat coast, skirting Oman coast.
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given below:
Date/Time(IST) | Position (lat. 0N/ long.0E) | Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph) |
02-06-2010/1130 | 17.5/61.0 | 120-130 gusting to 140 |
02-06-2010/1730 | 18.0/60.5 | 130-140 gusting to 150 |
02-06-2010/2330 | 18.5/60.0 | 140-150 gusting to 165 |
03-06-2010/0530 | 19.0/59.5 | 150-160 gusting to 175 |
03-06-2010/1130 | 19.5/59.5 | 160-170 gusting to 185 |
03-06-2010/2330 | 20.5/59.5 | 180-200 gusting to 215 |
04-06-2010/1130 | 22.5/60.5 | 200-220 gusting to 235 |
04-06-.2010/2330 | 23.5/63.5 | 200-220 gusting to 235 |
05-06-.2010/1130 | 24.5/66.5 | 200-210 gusting to 225 |
Under the influence of this system, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would commence over coastal areas of Gujarat from 4th June 2010 and increase thereafter. Gale winds with speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting 85 kmph would commence along and off Gujarat coast from 4th June 2010 and increase gradually.
Sea condition will be very high to phenomenal over north Arabian Sea and along and off Gujarat coast from 3rd June 2010. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea. Fishermen who are in the open sea should return to the coast by 3rd evening.
No comments:
Post a Comment