Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 9.. Very near to Oman

Too close to Oman.
Still moving in North-West direction and NO sign of re-curve.
The system should re-curve in another 6 hrs or crash over Oman in another 24 hrs.


JTWC warning
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021500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 59.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY 
INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSED 
AT 125 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 127 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 30 NM EYE. A MID-
LATITUDE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL 
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. TC 03A CONTINUES TO TRACK 
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL 
STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ONTO THE COAST OF 
OMAN BY TAU 36, WHERE IT SHOULD SLOW AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER 
LAND. IT WILL THEN BEGIN TO RECURVE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
INTO THE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE IN SPEED. TC PHET SHOULD 
THEN ENTER BACK OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA BY TAU 72 WITH AN 
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. TC 03A WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD WITH 
LITTLE CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION DUE TO HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
AND SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF PAKISTAN BY TAU 96. TC PHET WILL 
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 120. 
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A SPLIT BETWEEN 
THE FASTER RECURVERS (UKMO, ECMWF, WBAR) AND THOSE THAT ARE SLOWER 
(GFDN, GFS, NOGAPS), TAKING THE SYSTEM OVER OMAN. THE MODEL GUIDANCE 
HAS CONTINUALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD WITH A SLOWER RECURVE TO THE EAST. 
THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE MODELS SLOWER TO RECURVE AND IS SIMILAR TO 
MODEL CONSENSUS, TAKING TC 03A OVER OMAN AND WEAKENING IT 
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 27 FEET. 

JTWC projected path
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Satellite shot at 7pm IST
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