Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 8.. Very Severe Cyclone nearing Oman coast

Still moving in a North-West direction
While whole west coast of India is getting heavy thunder showers from Afternoon.


IMD warning
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ARB 02/2010/15                                                                                                Dated: 02.06.2010

Time of issue: 1700 hours IST

Sub:   Very severe cyclonic storm, ‘PHET’ over westcentral Arabian Sea.

            The very severe cyclonic storm, “PHET” over westcentral Arabian Sea moved northwestwards and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, 02^nd June 2010 near latitude 18.0⁰N and long. 60.5⁰E, about 1250 km west-southwest of Mumbai, 1050 km southwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat), 1050 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 530 km south-southeast of Sur (Oman).

           

            The current environmental condition and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify further and move slowly in a north-northwesterly/northerly direction for next 24 hours, close to Oman coast and then recurve northeastwards towards Pakistan & adjoining Gujarat coast, skirting Oman coast.

           

            Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given below:

Date/Time(IST)	Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)	Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
02-06-2010/1430	18.0/60.5	140-150 gusting to 160
02-06-2010/1730	18.0/60.5	150-160 gusting to 170
02-06-2010/2330	18.5/60.0	160-170 gusting to 185
03-06-2010/0530	19.0/59.5	170-180 gusting to 195
03-06-2010/1130	19.5/59.5	180-190 gusting  to 205
03-06-2010/2330	20.5/59.5	200-220 gusting to 235
04-06-2010/1130	22.5/60.5	200-220 gusting to 235
04-06-.2010/2330	23.5/63.5	200-220 gusting to 235
05-06-.2010/1130	24.5/66.5	200-210 gusting to 225

            Under the influence of this system, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would commence over coastal areas of Saurashtra & Kutch from 4^th June 2010 and increase thereafter. Gale winds with speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting 85 kmph would commence along and off Gujarat coast from 4^th June 2010 and increase gradually.

            Sea condition will be very high to phenomenal over north Arabian Sea and along and off Gujarat coast from 4^th June 2010. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea. Fishermen who are in the open sea should return to the coast by 3^rd evening.

Satellite shot at 5pm IST
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