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210900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 81.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED AS IT TRACKS OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST INDIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE SYSTEM'S RAPID WEAKENING TREND AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILE FROM VISAKHAPATNAM. (DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND, AND THERE ARE NO NEARBY REPORTING STATIONS). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST WHILE WEAKENING. AFTER TAU 48, ITS REMNANTS WILL EMERGE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL, INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY, THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES SOUTHEASTERN BANGLADESH, NEAR CHITTAGONG. THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED FURTHER INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.
JTWC projected path
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IMD warning 13:30hrs IST
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Deep depression over coastal Andhra Pradesh weakened into depression.
The deep depression over coastal Andhra Pradesh moved north-northeastwards and further weakened into a depression and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 21st May 2010 over coastal Andhra Pradesh, about 100 km west of Kakinada.
The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to weaken further and move in a north-northeasterlydirection.
Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls is likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Telangana during next 12 hours and decrease in intensity thereafter. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Orissa during next 36 hours. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over Gangetic West Bengal during next 48 hours.
Squally winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph likely along and off north Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours.
Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off north Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off this coast.
According to NWP model prediction, there is possibility of emergence of the system into north Bay of Bengal . In that case, the system may intensify again over the sea. The system is therefore under constant watch.
Next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 21st May 2010
Satellite shot
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